Bulls Heat odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

NBA Play-In Tournament: Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Chicago Bulls (40-43) meet the Miami Heat (46-37) in an NBA Eastern Conference Play-In Game. Tip-off at Kaseya Center is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Bulls vs. Heat odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The winner will earn the 8th seed in the East and will face top-seeded Boston in a best-of-7 1st-round series, while the loser will head home for the offseason.

Season series: Tied 2-2

These teams not only split their 4-game regular-season series, but Chicago and Miami each won one on the other’s home court. However, the Bulls hold a 3-1 against-the-spread (ATS) edge in the 4 games. Plus, Chicago has a healthy 6-2 ATS mark in the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, going 3-1 ATS last season, too.

The Over has cashed in each of the past 3 meetings in the series, including both battles in South Florida.

The big news for Miami is on the injury front, as leading scorer F Jimmy Butler (knee) is out indefinitely. Butler was injured in Wednesday’s 105-104 play-in game loss at Philadelphia. He played the final 3 quarters after suffering a knee injury and finished with 19 points. After an MRI Thursday, it was determined he has an injury to the medial collateral ligament (MCL) in his right knee and he is expected to miss several weeks.

Chicago won 131-116 in its play-in game vs. the Atlanta Hawks Wednesday, cashing as a 3-point favorite as the Over (223) easily connected. The Over has hit in 5 straight games for the Bulls.

Bulls at Heat odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 6:31 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Bulls +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Heat -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Against the spread: Bulls +2.5 (-115) | Heat -2.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 205.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Bulls at Heat key injuries

Bulls

G Alex Caruso (ankle) questionable
G Ayo Dosunmu (quadriceps) questionable
C Andre Drummond (ankle) questionable

Heat

F Jimmy Butler (knee) out
G Terry Rozier (neck) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Bulls at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Bulls 107, Heat 105

Moneyline

The BULLS (+105) are worth a look as short underdogs on the road. First off, Chicago has already won in Miami this season, and the Heat are in a world of hurt after losing Jimmy Buckets to the knee injury.

Chicago looked awfully good taking care of Atlanta at home in the play-in game Wednesday, and the Bulls have won 3 of the past 4 outings.

Against the spread

There isn’t a ton of reason to back the Bulls +2.5 (-115) catching the points, unless you’re absolutely adamant that the Heat will win, but only by 2 points.

Chicago enters on a 4-0 ATS streak, and it has covered 6 of the past 8 meetings against Miami.

PASS.

Over/Under

OVER 205.5 (-110) is a strong play, even if Miami is missing Butler, who tied with G Tyler Herro as the team’s leading scorer at 20.8 points per game.

Miami still has plenty of players like Herro, C Bam Adebayo (19.3 PPG, 10.4 RPB) and F Duncan Robinson (12.9 PPG) to get the job done offensively. The Heat cashed the Over (208.5) against the 76ers Wednesday but just barely — by a hook (a half point). The Over has hit in 3 straight, and 11 of the past 12 games for the Heat since March 29.

For Chicago, the Over (223) was never in question Wednesday against Atlanta, and the total has gone high in 5 straight outings. The Bulls are good for 117 or more points in each game, and 127 or more points in 3 of the past 4, while conceding 116 or more points across 4 of the past 5 contests.

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Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The 10th-seed Chicago Bulls (40-42) take on the 7th-seed Miami Heat (44-38) Friday at Kaseya Arena for the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Bulls vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Bulls pulled off a remarkable comeback against the Toronto Raptors Wednesday to become the 1st 10 seed to win their play-in game. The Bulls won 109-105 after trailing by 19 points as a 6.5-point road underdog. F Zach LaVine took over in the 4th quarter and ended the game with 39 points.

The Miami Heat fell in an early hole against the Atlanta Hawks and after a fighting back in the 2nd half could not overcome the deficit and lost 116-105 in Tuesday’s play-in game as a 5,5-point home favorite. Heat G Kyle Lowry scored 33 of the team’s 37 bench points.

The Bulls took the season series 3-0, winning by 24 points and 8 points twice.

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Bulls at Heat odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:29 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Bulls +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Heat -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Bulls +5.5 (-110) | Heat -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 208.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Bulls at Heat key injuries

Bulls

G Lonzo Ball (knee) out

Heat

F Nikola Jovic (back) out
G Kyle Lowry (knee) questionable
G Gabe Vincent (hip) questionable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Bulls at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 115, Bulls 104

Moneyline

G DeMar DeRozan had his revenge game against the Toronto Raptors, and now its Miami F Jimmy Butler’s turn against his former team.

Miami is 27-15 at home and even better when they are a home favorite. The Heat’s defense is their biggest strength and they cause 15.7 turnovers a game (3rd-best in the NBA).

However, the current line is not worth the risk so PASS.

Against the spread

The underdogs are 4-0 ATS for the play-in tournament, which adds a little concern when I say I like the Heat to cover. Miami has covered in 5 of their last 7 games after an ATS loss. And the Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against teams with a home record above .600%.

LEAN HEAT -5.5 (-110).

Over/Under

Both teams lean more on their defense and neither has a strong offense, but the line is at 208.5. That is roughly 20 points under the average line this season. Teams scoring over 100 points used to be celebrated, now it is assumed.

While the Bulls and Heat rank 22nd and 30th in points per game, their defense has one gaping hole, the 3-point shot. The Bulls rank 29th in 3-pointers allowed (13.2). The Heat are technically better, but just barely, ranking 28th (13.1).

BET OVER 208.5 (-110).

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Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Chicago Bulls will travel to FTX Arena to take on the Miami Heat Wednesday in the season opener for both teams. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Bulls vs. Heat odds, and our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Bulls are coming into this season with high expectations, but they may need to be tempered to start with several players injured in their star-studded backcourt.

Chicago did add C Nikola Vucevic prior to the 2021 trade deadline, and he has added both rebounding and spacing to the offense. G DeMar DeRozan is the key offensive weapon and was an MVP candidate last season.

The Heat, on the other hand, made the conference finals last season, but lost to Boston in 7 games. Miami will once again be led by F Jimmy Butler.

C Bam Adebayo is poised to make another big jump on both ends of the court as well. The Heat didn’t make any big-name additions and have 1 of the best defensive rosters in the NBA.

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Bulls at Heat odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:01 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Bulls +245 (bet $100 to win $245) | Heat -320 (bet $320 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Bulls +7.5 (-108) | Heat -7.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 216.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Bulls at Heat key injuries

Bulls

G Lonzo Ball (knee) out
G Alex Caruso (calf) probable
G Zach LaVine (knee) questionable

Heat

G Victor Oladipo (knee) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Bulls at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 109, Bulls 105

Moneyline

PASS.

I do see some reason to back the Bulls moneyline here at the juicy +245, but considering you can get 7.5 points on the spread, that’s the better route to take.

Against the spread

LEAN BULLS +7.5 (-108).

The Heat were more prone to turn the ball over a season ago, and that could lead to some extra opportunities for Chicago.

Also, the Bulls have more unknowns regarding them with G Ayo Dosunmu and F Patrick Williams, both of which could step up as early as Wednesday.

On the other side, the Bulls have DeRozan who will be the best scorer on the court and can hit difficult isolation shots which makes him tough to guard, much like F Jayson Tatum who beat up the Heat in the playoffs.

The Heat also don’t have great backcourt depth and could rely on F Caleb Martin and G Kyle Lowry for production as well which could backfire on them.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 216.5 (-115).

The Bulls were good offensively and bad defensively last season, but their effective field goal rate sat 10th in the league and their offensive rating was outside of the top 10.

The Heat ranked 4th in the NBA in defensive rating and bring back Adebayo and Butler, 2 key defenders who are consistently up for All-Defensive team nominations.

The Bulls could be without a star guard and 2 other key backcourt players, both of which had shown improvement on the offensive end. Without Oladipo, the Heat’s playmaking could be limited as well.

Chicago was just 40-45-2 O/U last season as well.

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Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Chicago Bulls (39-22) head to South Beach Monday to play the Miami Heat (40-21). Tip-off at FTX Arena is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Bulls vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Chicago has split its first two games (both at home) following the All-Star break, first beating the Atlanta Hawks 112-108 Thursday then losing to the Memphis Grizzlies 116-110 Saturday.

Miami is 2-0 straight up (SU) and 1-1 against the spread (ATS) to start its second half. The Heat trounced the Knicks 115-110 in New York Friday then eked past the San Antonio Spurs 133-129 at home as 13-point favorites Saturday.

The Heat won and covered their first two meetings with the Bulls (107-104 Nov. 27 and 118-92 Dec. 11) and both games went Over the total.

Bulls at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:05 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Bulls +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Heat -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Against the spread: Bulls +4.5 (-108) | Heat -4.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 221.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Bulls at Heat key injuries

Bulls

PG Lonzo Ball (knee) out
SG Alex Caruso (wrist) out
C Nikola Vucevic (ankle) probable

Heat

PG Kyle Lowry (personal reasons) out

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Bulls at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 117, Bulls 111

Money line

PASS since I only “lean” to Miami covering the spread and there’s no way I’d lay it with the Heat (-190).

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Against the spread

“LEAN” to the HEAT -4.5 (-112) for a half-unit because this is a sharp line and my favorite wager in this contest is the Over.

However, Miami performs much better against tough competition. The Heat are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games versus teams with a 60.0% winning rate or higher and the Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in those spots.

Miami is also 12-6 SU versus teams in the top-10 of net efficiency with a plus-5.5 adjusted net rating (ranked second) and plus-6.8 ATS margin (ranked second) according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

While Chicago technically only ranks 12th in adjusted net rating, the Bulls are 1 game behind the Heat for the 1-seed in the East and are eighth in net rating over the past five games.

Over/Under

BET the OVER 221.5 (-107) for 1 unit for a variety of reasons. First of all, all three of the referees assigned for this game have officiated more Overs and the officiating crew has a combined 66-55 O/U record.

Both teams excel at getting to the charity stripe, which gives me more confidence in our Over considering the officiating crew’s O/U record. Chicago is sixth in offensive FT/FGA rate and Miami is 28th in defensive FT/FGA rate.

These teams also have a combined 29-23 O/U record when playing opponents with a winning record. In fact, the Bulls are 4-0 O/U in their last four games versus teams with a winning record and the Heat are 5-0 O/U in their last five games versus winning teams.

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Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Chicago Bulls (17-9) head to South Beach Saturday for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off against the Miami Heat (15-11) at FTX Center. Below, we look at the Bulls vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Chicago had its four-game win streak snapped Wednesday with a 115-92 loss at the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Bulls are 4-2 straight-up (SU), 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U over the last two weeks with the 10th-best efficiency differential according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CtG).

Miami upset the Milwaukee Bucks 113-104 as a 6.5-point home underdog Thursday but is just 3-4 SU in its last seven games. The Heat are 3-4 ATS and 4-3 O/U with the 25th-best efficiency differential over the past two weeks (CtG).

The Heat won the first regular-season meeting with the Bulls 107-104 in Chicago Nov. 27 as 1-point road favorites and the Over cashed on a 209.5-point total. However, both teams were at full health whereas each is missing a plethora of contributors for this meeting.

Bulls at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:20 p.m. ET.

Money line: Bulls -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Heat -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Bulls +1.5 (-122) | Heat -1.5 (-102)
Over/Under (O/U): 209.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Bulls at Heat key injuries

Bulls

SG Alex Caruso (hamstring) questionable
SF DeMar DeRozan (health and safety protocols) out
SF Derrick Jones (health and safety protocols) out
PG Coby White (health and safety protocols) out

Heat

SG Duncan Robinson (quadriceps) probable
C Bam Adebayo (thumb) out
SF Jimmy Butler (back) out

Bulls at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 109, Bulls 104

Money line

“LEAN” to the HEAT (-110) because they are 6-2 SU as an underdog with a plus-5.1 scoring margin. I also trust Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra to get more out of his shorthanded roster than Chicago head coach Billy Donovan.

Miami was deeper even before Chicago’s COVID-related absences. The Heat have the fifth-highest scoring bench in the NBA with the fifth-best plus/minus whereas the Bulls had the second-worst scoring bench.

DeRozan ranks 93rd percentile of wings in on/off efficiency differential and he scored a game-high 28 points on 57.9% shooting in the first Bulls-Heat meeting this season.

Moreover, Miami does a good job defending how Chicago plays. The Bulls run a lot of action through pick-and-roll (PnR) offense and attempt the most long-mid-range jumpers (per CtG), but the Heat play good PnR defense and have the best defensive field goal percentage versus long-mid-range jumpers.

The reason why I only “LEAN” to the HEAT (-110) is that the Bulls have by far the best player on the floor in G Zach LaVine. I’m high on LaVine this season and he’s ascended to one of the best 20 players in the NBA.

Against the spread

PASS since Miami’s money line is only 8 cents on the dollar pricier than the Heat -1.5 (-102) so there’s no use in fussing with the points in this game.

That said, the trend of Miami’s 7-1 ATS record as an underdog with a plus-10.1 ATS margin applies here since this game is priced as a coin-flip.

Over/Under

PASS since it’s hard to predict how these teams will operate with all the missing players.

The previous three Bulls-Heat games have gone Over the total and I think there’s a better chance of a shootout than a rock-fight in this one, but I don’t have a strong enough conviction in that to bet it.

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Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat NBA odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The Chicago Bulls (25-34) are in South Beach Friday for an 8 p.m. ET game with the host Miami Heat (31-29) at American Airlines Arena. Below, we analyze the Bulls-Heat odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Chicago has won three of the last four games (3-1 against the spread) with the latest game being a 108-91 home victory over the Charlotte Hornets Thursday.

Before this stretch, the Bulls were on a five-game losing skid from April 9-16 (0-5 ATS). Chicago has slid to 11th in the Eastern Conference, 1 game behind 10th place Washington Wizards for the final postseason play-in entry.

Miami had its three-game winning streak snapped in a 118-103 beatdown last night by the Atlanta Hawks as 6.5-point road favorites.

The 7th place Heat are trying to play their way out of play-in postseason status since seeds seven through 10 participate in the play-in tournament.

The Heat trounced the Bulls in their first meeting this season, 101-90, as 2-point road favorites.

Bulls at Heat: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

Money line: Bulls +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Heat -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Bulls +4.5 (-110) | Heat -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 205.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Bulls at Heat: Key injuries

Bulls

SF Patrick Williams (heel) probable
SG Zach LaVine (health and safety protocols) out

Heat

SG Victor Oladipo (knee) out

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Bulls at Heat: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Heat 109, Bulls 97

Money line (ML)

PASS because Miami should get a W tonight, but the Heat (-190) is a little out of my price range.

Also, Miami’s blowout loss to an Atlanta team last night without its leading scorer and assist man (Trae Young) and leading rebounder (Clint Capela) is further proof of the randomness in the NBA this season.

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Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the HEAT -4.5 (-110) for a half unit because beat the Bulls by 11 points in their first meeting despite a now-injured LaVine scored an efficient 30 points on 10-for-16 shooting with 6 rebounds and 6 assists.

LaVine’s absence, Miami’s motivation after last night’s embarrassing loss and the Heat winning three straight against the Bulls by at least five points are too strong of angles.

That being said, Miami is 2-6 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage and 9-13-1 ATS as a home favorite while Chicago is 14-6 ATS as a road dog.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 205.5 (-110) for a quarter unit because BetMGM has a really sharp total for Bulls-Heat.

However, the Under has cashed in five of six Bulls-Heat meetings, in three of Miami’s past four games and in three of Chicago’s past four games.

Also, we are getting to this party a little late as the Bulls-Heat opened with a 210-point total, but it has been steamed down because of the pro-Under action.

Furthermore, this is a “pros vs. Joes” situation in the betting market as the money (“pros”) are on the Under while there have been more bets placed (“average Joe”) on the Under, according to Pregame.com.

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