Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots odds predictions pick betting line spread

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots odds and lines, with expert NFL picks and predictions.

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The Buffalo Bills (4-2) visit the New England Patriots (1-5) on Sunday. Kick from Gillette Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Bills vs. Patriots odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Bills skidded past the Giants 14-9 last week on Sunday Night Football while failing to cover as 15-point home favorites. QB Josh Allen went 19 of 30 for 169 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. His top receiver was WR Stefon Diggs who hauled in 10 receptions for 100 yards while being targeted 16 times. No other Bills receiver had more than 2 receptions and only 2 other receivers had more than a single target.

Last week, the Patriots fell 21-17 to the Raiders while failing to cover as 3-point road underdogs. QB Mac Jones went 24 of 33 for 200 yards and an interception in the loss. Both New England TDs came on the ground with RB Rhamondre Stevenson and RB Ezekiel Elliot each finding the endzone.

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Bills at Patriots odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:58 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Bills -375 (bet $375 to win $100) | Patriots +300 (bet $100 to win $300)
Against the spread (ATS): Bills -7.5 (-110) | Patriots +7.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 40 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Bills at Patriots key injuries

Bills

CB Kaiir Elam (ankle) questionable
RB Damien Harris (concussion) out
DT Ed Oliver (toe) out

Patriots

C David Andrews (ankle) available
T Trent Brown (chest) available
S Kyle Dugger (foot) questionable
DT Davon Godchaux (ankle) questionable
TE Hunter Henry (ankle) questionable
CB Jonathan Jones (knee) questionable
G Mike Onwenu (ankle) questionable
T Riley Reiff (knee) out
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) questionable
G Cole Strange (knee) questionable
LB Josh Uche (knee, foot) out

Bills at Patriots picks and predictions

Prediction

Bills 27, Patriots 10

Moneyline

PASS.

The Bills are so much better than the Patriots that the outcome of the game shouldn’t be a consideration. However, at -375, the Bills aren’t worth a play. Don’t put them in your moneyline parlays either.

Against the spread

BET BILLS -7.5 (-110).

The Bills have been favored in all 6 games so far this season, and they are 0-2 against the spread (ATS) when a double-digit favorite. But, when they are a favorite of 3-9.5, they are 3-1 ATS. The Bills offense scored 38, 37, and 48 in back-to-back weeks before going for 20 in Week 5 and 14 in Week 6. This offense should bounce back.

The opposite can be said of the Pats, who have scored 20 points over the last 3 weeks. There’s no reason to have confidence they can get going here. They are 1-5 ATS and 0-4 ATS as an underdog.

Back BILLS -7.5 (-110).

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 40 (-110).

The Pats have gone Under in 5 straight games and have scored more than 17 just once this season. They have gone Under in 2 games in which they allowed 34 or more points, so even if the Bills offense bounces back, the total may not top 40.

The Bills are 2-4 O/U and have gone Under in 3 of their last 4 games. They have had a total of Under 45 or lower in 3 games, all of which went Under. Take UNDER 40 (-110).

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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Week 16 odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Buffalo Bills (8-6) and New England Patriots (9-5) meet in a crucial AFC East showdown Sunday at 1 p.m. ET (on CBS). Below, we look at the Bills vs. Patriots odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

The Patriots lead the Bills by one game atop the division. New England took the first head-to-head meeting of the season 14-10 as a 3-point road underdog in Week 13.

In gusty winds, New England QB Mac Jones only attempted 3 passes, completing 2 for 19 yards, and the defense held the Bills to a season-low 230 offensive yards.

RB Damien Harris finished with 111 rushing yards, including a 64-yard touchdown, as the Pats outrushed the host Bills 222 to 99.

The Bills had a chance to take the lead late when they faced 1st-and-10 at the Patriots’ 14-yard line with 2:30 to go, but a 1-yard run followed by three incomplete passes sealed the New England victory.

Also see: All Week 16 odds and lines

Bills at Patriots odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:54 a.m. ET.

Money line: Bills -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Patriots -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Bills +0.5 (-105) | Patriots -0.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Bills at Patriots key injuries

Bills

None

Patriots

WR Nelson Agholor (concussion) out
WR Rhamondre Stevenson (illness) out
C David Andrews (shoulder) questionable
DT Christian Barmore (knee) questionable
LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (ribs, ankle) questionable
RB Brandon Bolden (knee) questionable
K Nick Folk (knee) questionable
RB Damien Harris (hamstring) questionable
WR N’Keal Harry (hip) questionable
DB Adrian Phillips (knee) questionable

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Bills at Patriots odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Patriots 30, Bills 24

Money line

PASS and just focus on the spread as they’re the exact same price.

New England is 3-4 straight-up (SU) at home and 3-2 as a home favorite, while Buffalo is 4-3 SU on the road and 1-1 as a road underdog.

Plus, Buffalo QB Josh Allen is 2-4 in his career vs. the Pats.

Against the spread

NEW ENGLAND -0.5 (-115) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.

The Patriots had not only won seven in a row, they covered seven in a row until a 27-17 loss at the Indianapolis Colts last week in a Saturday matchup.

They are 4-3 ATS at home this season, including 3-0 ATS in their last three at Gillette Stadium. New England is also 5-0 in its last five as a favorite.

The Bills, who snapped a two-game skid with a 31-14 home victory vs. the Carolina Panthers in Week 15, are 2-3 SU/ATS in their last five games.

They have been inconsistent against the spread. They are 4-3 ATS on the road and 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a SU win.

Over/Under

OVER 43.5 (-110) is the way to go.

Don’t expect a game like the last Bills-Pats meeting when New England only threw the ball 3 times. That was in extremely windy conditions.

The O/U is 7-0 in Buffalo’s last seven games as an underdog, including 5-0 in its last five as a road dog.

Plus, the O/U is 4-0 in New England’s last four home games.

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JOHNNY’S RECORD	W-L	SP	ROI
Since July 8	87-59	36-21	+24.995
2021 NFL	17-15	7-7	-2.009
–SP: Strongest plays; ROI*: Return on investment

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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots odds, picks and prediction

Previewing the Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Week 16 betting odds and lines, with NFL betting picks, tips and predictions.

The 2020 AFC East champion Buffalo Bills (11-3) visit the New England Patriots (6-8) in the Week 16 Monday Night Football game at 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff. Below, we preview the Bills-Patriots betting odds and lines and make our NFL picks and predictions.

Bills at Patriots: Betting odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.

Money line: Bills -350 (bet $350 to win $100) | Patriots +270 (bet $100 to win $270)
Against the spread/ATS: Bills -7 (-110) | Patriots +7 (-110)
Over/Under: 46.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Bills at Patriots: Game notes

The Bills, who enter on a 4-game win streak, clinched the AFC East title with a 48-19 rout at the Denver Broncos in Week 15. QB Josh Allen threw for 359 yards with 2 touchdowns and ran for 2 scores as Buffalo easily covered as a 6-point favorite. WR Stefon Diggs had a game-high 147 receiving yards (11 receptions) and WR Cole Beasley finished with 112 receiving yards (8 receptions).
While Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) locked up the AFC’s top seed, the Bills can claim the No. 2 seed with a win vs. the Patriots. Buffalo is a half-game back of the AFC North champion Pittsburgh Steelers (12-3) but own the tiebreaker thanks to a 26-15 home win vs. Pittsburgh in Week 14. The Steelers visit the Cleveland Browns (10-5) in Week 17 – with the Browns still fighting for one of the final playoff spots.
The Patriots, who enter on a 2-game skid, were eliminated from playoff contention after losing 22-12 at the Miami Dolphins as 1.5-point favorites in Week 15. At 6-8, the Patriots will finish at .500 or worse for the first time since 2000, the season after they drafted QB Tom Brady. Their NFL-record of 11 consecutive postseason appearances will come to an end, and they also fell one season shy of matching the Dallas Cowboys’ NFL record of 20 consecutive winning seasons.
Buffalo took the season’s first meeting vs. New England with a 24-21 Week 8 home victory, failing to cover as a 4-point favorite. The Patriots had a chance to tie or take the lead in the final minute, but QB Cam Newton fumbled and the Bills recovered at the Buffalo 13-yard line with 31 seconds left to seal it. Neither starting QB, Newton and Buffalo’s Josh Allen, threw a touchdown, but both had 1 rushing TD apiece as the Bills snapped a 7-game skid in the series vs. the Pats.

Betting stats:

ATS: Bills 9-5 | Patriots 6-8
O/U: Bills 9-4-1 | Patriots 4-10

Bills at Patriots: Key injuries

Bills

No major injuries

Patriots

C David Andrews (calf) questionable
LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (shoulder) questionable
DT Adam Butler (shoulder) questionable
DT Byron Cowart (back) questionable
OL Jermaine Eluemunor (ankle) questionable
PK Nick Folk (back) questionable
DT Lawrence Guy (shoulder) questionable
RB Damien Harris (ankle) questionable
OL Justin Herron (ankle) questionable
CB J.C. Jackson (knee) questionable
LB Anfernee Jennings (shoulder) questionable
CB Jonathan Jones (neck) questionable
OL Shaq Mason (calf) questionable
DE John Simon (hamstring) questionable

Bills at Patriots: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Bills 28, Patriots 17

Money line (?)

PASS. The Bills will take this one, but their -350 price isn’t worth the risk.

Against the spread (?)

BUFFALO -7 (-110) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. The Bills are playing for the AFC’s second seed. The Patriots are out of the playoff race and have numerous injuries. If the line climbs above 7, this becomes a 1-unit play.

Over/Under (?)

Back the UNDER 46.5 (-110). The Patriots average 20.6 points per game to rank 27th in the league. Plus, their passing game ranks 30th at 185.4 yards per game. Unless the Bills put up 30 points, this should finish Under.

Want action on this NFL game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Also see:

Buffalo at New England: 3 key matchups (Bills Wire)
9 burning questions for MNF tilt (Patriots Wire)

Johnny’s 2020 NFL record / Strongest plays	25-25-1 / 11-11-1
2019 NFL record / Strongest plays	17-10-1 / 7-4
2020 overall record (all sports)	173-145-3
Strongest plays (all sports)	85-59-1

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