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2024 Food City 500: What you need to know

Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott leads all active drivers with an 11.9 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in 13 Cup starts, while posting 4 top-5 runs

Hendrick’s Kyle Larson has a win, 5 top-5 finishes and 870 laps led in Thunder Valley in just 15 career Cup starts with a 12.1 AFP, 2nd only to Elliott

Richard Childress Racing’s Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 8 victories at Bristol, while posting 14 top-5 runs among 19 top-10 finishes and a 13.9 AFP in 34 Cup starts at BMS

Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin has collected 3 checkered flags at Bristol in 33 career Cup starts, while posting 10 top-5 finishes among 17 top-10 runs and 1,036 laps led with a 13.9 AFP

JGR’s Martin Truex Jr. has never won at Bristol and has just 2 top-5 in 4 top-10 runs in 33 career Cup starts with a subpar 20.7 AFP

Hendrick’s Alex Bowman has had a hard time over the years at Bristol, going for just 3 top-10 finishes in 13 career starts with a poor 20.8 AFP

Trackhouse Racing’s Ross Chastain has struggled in 7 career starts at Bristol, posting a dismal 23.3 AFP with 0 laps led and 1 DNF

JGR’s Ty Gibbs had mixed results at Bristol last season, finishing 5th and 35th with a DNF in his first 2 career Cup starts at the short track

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2024 Food City 500 – Expert pick

KYLE BUSCH (+1600) is the play at Bristol. No driver does it better at the track known as Thunder Valley. He has picked up 8 checkered flags in 34 career Cup starts, and the rest of the field combined has just 10 wins at the track. While he hasn’t won on the pavement at Bristol since April 2019, he is still a threat to take checkers at the short track anytime he steps behind the wheel.

2024 Food City 500 – Contender

ERIK JONES (+8000) has extremely long odds, but he has always seemed to fare well at this track. Jones has 11 career Cup starts under his belt, posting 4 top-5 finishes, including a runner-up, while recording a 14.3 AFP. Only 4 others active drivers have a better AFP than Jones. If he can pull off the win, you could turn $2 into $100.

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2024 Food City 500 prop picks

KYLE BUSCH TOP-10 FINISH (-125)

OK, to be fair, Busch has not done a great job so far this season. In 5 starts, he has just a single top-5 finish (Atlanta), while leading 58 laps. He wasn’t in front of the pack for a single lap at Phoenix last week, and he has finished 22nd and 26th in the past 2 races.

Still, a top-10 finish should be a slam-dunk play for Busch at Bristol. This is his best track.

CHASE ELLIOTT TOP-10 FINISH (-105)

Like Busch, it’s been a struggle for Elliott, arguably NASCAR’s most popular driver. He has finished 14th, 15th, 12th and 19th. So why pick Elliott for his first top-10 at Bristol? Elliott has made 13 career Cup starts at BMS, posting 7 top-10 finishes with 439 laps led. He has never won, but he has a runner-up with a circuit-best 11.9 AFP.

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The NASCAR Cup Series heads back to Bristol Motor Speedway for the 2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race Saturday night. The green flag is set to drop shortly after 7:30 p.m. ET (USA Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the 2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.

2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race: What you need to know

RFK Racing driver Chris Buescher picked up the victory last fall in the Bristol night race, getting the win from the 20th starting position
Buescher’s starting spot of 20th was the lowest for a winner on the Bristol pavement since Kevin Harvick started 24th and won the night race Aug. 21, 2016
Harvick has won 3 times at Bristol, posting 14 top-5 finishes in 42 Cup starts (33.3% of his starts), while leading 1,209 laps with a 13.1 Average-Finish Position (AFP)
Richard Childress Racing driver Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 8 checkered flags at Bristol, while posting 14 top-5 runs, 19 top-10 finishes and a circuit-best 2,592 laps led in “The Last Great Colosseum”
Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott has never won at Bristol, but he leads all active drivers with a 12.3 AFP with 4 top-5 finishes and 6 top-10 runs in 12 career Cup starts with 0 DNFs
Michael McDowell has had his issues at Bristol in his Cup career, posting a 28.8 AFP in 23 starts with 0 laps led and 8 DNFs
Aric Almirola has also struggled in his career at BMS, managing a dismal 24.0 AFP in 25 career Cup starts with just 39 laps led and 8 DNFs
TrackHouse Racing driver Ross Chastain is another driver who hasn’t fared well over the years in Thunder Valley, going for just 1 top-10 finish with 0 laps led and a 23.3 AFP in 6 career Cup starts
RFK Racing driver Brad Keselowski has managed 3 career wins with 6 top-5 finishes, 1,013 laps led and 0 DNFs in 24 Cup starts with a 16.7 AFP
Ford has won 3 of the past 4 Cup starts at Bristol Motor Speedway, while Chevrolet has managed to win just once in the past 9 starts. Ford and Toyota have 4 wins apiece in the same span

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2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race – Expert pick

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:44 p.m. ET.

KYLE BUSCH (+1600) just seems to be heads and tails better than any other driver on the pavement at Bristol Motor Speedway. He has 8 career Cup victories at the track, with the nearest active drivers (Harvick and Keselowski) with 3 wins each.

While Busch was a dismal 18th last fall in the night race, he is just too great of a value at this price.

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2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race – Long shot

CHASE BRISCOE (+10000) has 2 career Cup starts under his belt at Bristol. He has finished 13th and 14th in those outings, which is tremendous production based on this price to win. He is worth a roll of the dice as he is one of the best long shots to get checkers.

Even a CHASE BRISCOE TOP-10 FINISH (+340) — offered at FanDuel Sportsbook — for a chance to more than triple up is worth a shot. That’s a great value.

2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race – Race props

TOP MANUFACTURER: CHEVROLET (+140) — from FanDuel Sportsbook — is a strong play at plus-money. Busch has won 8 times at Bristol, albeit in a Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing. However, it’s the driver that makes the difference, not the machine.

And it isn’t just Busch, but you get the Hendrick stable of drivers, too, including Elliott and his circuit-best AFP at Bristol as well as Kyle Larson.

KYLE BUSCH (-130) OVER RYAN BLANEY is a tremendous play in head-to-head matchups. Again, Busch has the 8 checkered flags, and a 13.7 AFP in 33 career Cup starts in Thunder Valley, and he has 2,592 laps led.

On the flip side, Blaney has never won at the track in 13 career Cup starts, while posting just 2 top-5 finishes and 493 laps led with 2 DNFs. This is a slam-dunk play, and I’d go rather aggressively on this prop.