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The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Bristol Motor Speedway Sunday for the 2024 Food City 500 500. The green flag is scheduled to drop approximately at 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the 2024 Food City 500 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.
2024 Food City 500: What you need to know
- Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott leads all active drivers with an 11.9 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in 13 Cup starts, while posting 4 top-5 runs
- Hendrick’s Kyle Larson has a win, 5 top-5 finishes and 870 laps led in Thunder Valley in just 15 career Cup starts with a 12.1 AFP, 2nd only to Elliott
- Richard Childress Racing’s Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 8 victories at Bristol, while posting 14 top-5 runs among 19 top-10 finishes and a 13.9 AFP in 34 Cup starts at BMS
- Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin has collected 3 checkered flags at Bristol in 33 career Cup starts, while posting 10 top-5 finishes among 17 top-10 runs and 1,036 laps led with a 13.9 AFP
- JGR’s Martin Truex Jr. has never won at Bristol and has just 2 top-5 in 4 top-10 runs in 33 career Cup starts with a subpar 20.7 AFP
- Hendrick’s Alex Bowman has had a hard time over the years at Bristol, going for just 3 top-10 finishes in 13 career starts with a poor 20.8 AFP
- Trackhouse Racing’s Ross Chastain has struggled in 7 career starts at Bristol, posting a dismal 23.3 AFP with 0 laps led and 1 DNF
- JGR’s Ty Gibbs had mixed results at Bristol last season, finishing 5th and 35th with a DNF in his first 2 career Cup starts at the short track
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2024 Food City 500 – Expert pick
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 5:19 a.m. ET.
KYLE BUSCH (+1600) is the play at Bristol. No driver does it better at the track known as Thunder Valley. He has picked up 8 checkered flags in 34 career Cup starts, and the rest of the field combined has just 10 wins at the track. While he hasn’t won on the pavement at Bristol since April 2019, he is still a threat to take checkers at the short track anytime he steps behind the wheel.
2024 Food City 500 – Contender
ERIK JONES (+8000) has extremely long odds, but he has always seemed to fare well at this track. Jones has 11 career Cup starts under his belt, posting 4 top-5 finishes, including a runner-up, while recording a 14.3 AFP. Only 4 others active drivers have a better AFP than Jones. If he can pull off the win, you could turn $2 into $100.
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2024 Food City 500 prop picks
KYLE BUSCH TOP-10 FINISH (-125)
OK, to be fair, Busch has not done a great job so far this season. In 5 starts, he has just a single top-5 finish (Atlanta), while leading 58 laps. He wasn’t in front of the pack for a single lap at Phoenix last week, and he has finished 22nd and 26th in the past 2 races.
Still, a top-10 finish should be a slam-dunk play for Busch at Bristol. This is his best track.
CHASE ELLIOTT TOP-10 FINISH (-105)
Like Busch, it’s been a struggle for Elliott, arguably NASCAR’s most popular driver. He has finished 14th, 15th, 12th and 19th. So why pick Elliott for his first top-10 at Bristol? Elliott has made 13 career Cup starts at BMS, posting 7 top-10 finishes with 439 laps led. He has never won, but he has a runner-up with a circuit-best 11.9 AFP.
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