To help commence an action-packed Saturday, Manchester City (5 wins, 1 loss, 2 draws) visit Brighton (4 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses). The match is slated to kick at 12:30 p.m. ET and will be held at Falmer Stadium. Below, we preview the Brighton vs. Manchester City odds and lines, and make our best EPL bets, picks and predictions.
Manchester City is going to come in as the heavy favorite. They most recently took down Club Brugge in the Champions League group stage match. They won that 5-1 over the Belgian league’s No. 2 ranked club.
In EPL action, they took down Burnley last with a win over Chelsea and a draw with Liverpool prior to that.
Currently, in 3rd on the table, Man City will be without just F Ferran Torres. Brighton, a club that has surprised many this season, ranks 4th on the table.
This would be a statement victory. They’ll take the pitch without F Danny Welbeck. Brighton’s defense has been its rock, allowing just 5 goals in 8 games.
Brighton vs. Manchester City: Odds, picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 1:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brighton +670 (bet $100 to win $670) | Manchester City -240 (bet $240 to win $100) | Draw +370
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Manchester City 2, Brighton 0
Money line (ML)
PASS on the money line as Man City has disappointed one too many times this season. Having lost to Tottenham to start the season then succumbing to just a draw against Southampton, betting Man City (-230) is just not worth it.
Brighton is a legit club, and they’re going to be ready on their home pitch. However, taking any side opposite Man City typically is bad value, especially given the star power in their midfield.
Now, there’s value in betting the “NO” for BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE (-145). Defense is both teams’ strength. Man City has given up 3 in 8 games. Brighton has given up 5 and scored just 8.
If there is a play, it’s that one team won’t score, and it’s entirely possible both struggles getting on the board.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET on the UNDER 2.5 (+100) as, by far, the best value in this match. While Brentford’s defense was exposed against a top-tier side, Brighton has yet to fold.
They’ve shown resilience against teams like Arsenal and Leicester City. With their combined scores having only topped 2 twice this season, Brighton should come in, at home, and be ready to stop a mighty Man City.
That said, Man City’s legs may be a little worn out as well, playing Tuesday and turning around for a Saturday match. Without a true 9 in their lineup, Man City may struggle to score, especially if M Jack Grealish and M Riyad Mahrez can’t get much from the outside.
Man City hasn’t scored more than two goals in an EPL game since August 28. Even if they get one or two on the board, their top-tier defense should also be able to limit a struggling Brighton attack.
All-in-all, the Under is the right play in this one.
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