The top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs travel onto the Plains this week to take on the 3-1 Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
UGA comes in as the consensus #1 team in the nation, led by a tough-nosed defense and sparkling offensive attack. The Dawgs are coming off a 49-21 thumping over UAB last week, although they did give up their most points of the season (21) in the win.
Conversely, the Tigers played their worst game of the season last week, losing at Texas A&M 27-10.
Auburn’s offense is in a state of flux, and that is not good heading into a matchup with a UGA defense that produces NFL first-round talent on a yearly basis.
These two factors are probably why Auburn is a 14.5-point home underdog on Saturday according to BetMGM.
ESPN’s FPI doesn’t like the home team’s chances either, as the Football Power Index gives Auburn an 18.1% chance to upset the Bulldogs.
Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show Auburn has a higher chance of shocking the college football world than the experts believe? As always, we’ll start by looking at the quarterbacks.
Georgia came into the season with a major question mark at the quarterback position.
Kirby Smart and Co. were tasked with finding a replacement for [autotag]Stetson Bennett[/autotag], and they eventually landed on junior [autotag]Carson Beck[/autotag].
The Jacksonville, FL native has done well so far for the Dawgs, taking over the game manager role that helped his predecessor win two national championships.
Beck’s numbers through four games are actually eerily similar to Bennett’s numbers through four weeks in 2022.
At the week 5 mark last year, [autotag]Stetson Bennett[/autotag] had thrown for 1,224 yards, rushed for 44 more, and scored 9 total touchdowns (5 passing, 4 rushing).
At the week 5 mark this year, [autotag]Carson Beck[/autotag] has thrown for 1,184 yards, rushed for 38 yards, and scored 8 total touchdowns (6 passing, 2 rushing).
Perhaps most importantly, Beck has only turned the ball over one time.
On the other side, Auburn starter [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag] has had a troubled start to the season.
The Michigan State transfer ended up with only 44 passing yards in last week’s losing effort in College Station, pushing his season total to a mediocre 561 yards in four games.
In two games against Power 5 opponents, Thorne has collected just 138 passing yards and two touchdowns.
The Michigan State transfer has been able to find the end zone this frequently this year (6 total touchdowns) but his 4 turnovers in 4 games are alarming.
The clear edge in quarterback play goes to [autotag]Carson Beck[/autotag] and the UGA Bulldogs.
The skill position battle is almost as lopsided as the quarterback comparison.
Not only is UGA loaded at running back and receiver, but their best player on the offensive side of the ball is their tight end, [autotag]Brock Bowers[/autotag].
Standing at 6 4″ tall and 240 pounds, Bowers is coming off a dominant year in which he racked up over 1,000 all-purpose yards and 10 touchdowns in 15 games.
Bowers is picking up right where he left off so far this season, as the junior already has 260 yards and 3 touchdowns.
While Auburn wide receiver [autotag]Jay Fair[/autotag] has had himself a decent year and Georgia’s wide receiving core is nothing to scoff at, Bowers is clearly the best pass catcher in this game.
Georgia gets the advantage in the running back room as well.
Auburn’s top option, [autotag]Jarquez Hunter[/autotag], has struggled this year due to minor injuries, a suspension, and inconsistent o-line play.
His backup, [autotag]Damari Altson[/autotag], was injured in the Texas A&M game and is unlikely to play this week.
Third-stringer [autotag]Brian Battie[/autotag] was arguably the Tiger’s best offensive player after Alston went down last week, but his youth and inexperience make him too hard to judge just yet.
Georgia’s running backs are also dealing with some injuries, but they still get the edge because of their experience in big games. UGA’s top two rushers, Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton, are both seniors who were on the team for both of the Bulldogs championship runs.
Georgia’s talent and experience give them the edge over Auburn in every facet of the offensive game.
That is the case on the other side of the ball as well, although Georgia’s advantage is smaller.
The Auburn defense was the only thing that kept the Tigers afloat on the road last week, as the unit scored the team’s lone touchdown and kept Auburn in the game for three and a half quarters despite the offense failing to do much of anything.
Auburn’s defense has held opponents to just 16 PPG and 298.5 YPG this year. The 16 PPG is tied for 22nd in the nation, and the 298.5 YPG is tied for 24th.
Auburn’s defensive unit is also ranked 6th in the nation in defensive efficiency by ESPN FPI.
These numbers are all great. The only issue is that UGA’s are better.
The Dawgs are giving up 11.25 PPG and 282 YPG, good for 10th and 17th in the nation, respectively.
Auburn may have the best player on the defensive side of the ball in [autotag]Eugene Asante[/autotag], but Georgia is just a little bit better as a whole.
This game is probably going to be about as close as the experts believe, with UGA possibly blowing out Auburn early in this game.
The fact is, Auburn’s just not on the same talent level as the Bulldogs right now.
With that being said, the Tigers could still win this game, but it would take an amazing effort by the defense and a monster bounce-back performance by [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag].
We’ll see if the Tigers can shock the world when things kick off at Jordan-Hare at 2:30 PM CST on Saturday.
