Ole Miss is favored in week seven, but does the tale of the tape say this game will be closer?
The 5-1 Ole Miss Rebels travel to Jordan-Hare stadium to take on the 3-3 Auburn Tigers in a week 7 SEC matchup on Saturday.
Auburn comes into this one a loser of three straight games, while Ole Miss has only lost once all year. That loss came in Tuscaloosa to Alabama.
The high-octane offense of Ole Miss and their ability to win SEC games has the Rebels coming in as 6.5-point favorites on the road in this one, giving them an implied 71.43% chance to win outright.
ESPN’s Football Power Index doesn’t give the Tigers much of a chance either, as [autotag]Hugh Freeze[/autotag]’s team has just a 22.8% chance to upset the Rebels according to FPI.
Most of the public would agree Ole Miss is likely to win this game, but will a look at the tale of the tape show us Auburn has a better chance at breaking their losing streak than the surface suggests?
As always, we’ll start by examining the quarterbacks.
[autotag]Lane Kiffin[/autotag]’s offenses are always high-powered, and this year is no outlier. The team averages 42 points per contest this season, led by the arm of quarterback [autotag]Jaxon Dart[/autotag].
Dart has been amazing this year, as the junior has thrown for 1,638 yards and 12 touchdowns. He has thrown only two interceptions.
On the Auburn side, [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag] and [autotag]Robby Ashford[/autotag] have continuously struggled.
The tandem has thrown for just 935 yards in 6 games, accumulating 6 touchdowns through the air.
The clear edge in the quarterback battle goes to Ole Miss.
In terms of the skill players, Ole Miss once again has the edge,
Running backs [autotag]Quinshon Judkins[/autotag] and [autotag]Ulysees Bentley[/autotag] have combined to rush for 718 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns this year behind a very good Rebels offensive line.
The pass catchers have also been great, with the trio of [autotag]Jordan Watkins[/autotag], [autotag]Dayton Wade[/autotag], and [autotag]Tre Harris[/autotag] combining for over 1,000 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.
When compared with Auburn’s top skill position players like [autotag]Jarquez Hunter[/autotag], [autotag]Jay Fair[/autotag], and [autotag]Brian Battie[/autotag], the comparison is not close.
Ole Miss as an offense is much better than what Auburn has to offer.
The defensive battle is much closer, however.
Despite Auburn getting torched by Jayden Daniels and LSU last week, the Tigers still rank in the top 60 in points per game allowed and the top 70 in yards per game allowed.
While those numbers are much worse than what they were earlier, they are great compared to an Ole Miss defense that ranks outside of the top 100 in both categories.
If Auburn is going to win this game, they need to take advantage of their better defensive unit. That is something they were not able to do a week ago, but the home game may change the tide.
Contact/Follow us @TheAuburnWire on X (Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Auburn news, notes, and opinions. You can also follow Brian on Twitter @TheRealBHauch
