Tag: Brewers Marlins odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Milwaukee Brewers (27-19) and Miami Marlins (15-33) open a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from loanDepot Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Milwaukee won 4-3 last season

Milwaukee was beaten 9-4 Sunday by the Houston Astros, failing to cover as a +121 road underdog. The Brewers grabbed a 1-0 in the 1st, but then allowed the Astros to score 6 unanswered runs. The Brewers have lost 2 of their last 3.

Miami lost 7-3 to the New York Mets Sunday while failing to cover as a +124 road underdog. The Marlins scored 3 runs off of 2 HRs to cut the deficit to 4-3, but allowed the Mets to score 2 runs in the 9th to put the game away. Sunday’s loss broke a 4-game win streak for Miami.

Brewers at Marlins projected starters

RHP Joe Ross vs. LHP Ryan Weathers

Ross (2-4, 4.61 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 7.7 BB/9 and 3.3 K/9 in 41 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 6 K in a 4-3 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates Tuesday
  • Career vs. Miami: 2-2, 2.53 ERA (32 IP, 9 ER), 30 H, 10 BB, 26 K across 5 starts and 4 relief appearances

Weathers (2-4, 3.81 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 49 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 4 K in a 1-0 win at the Detroit Tigers Tuesday
  • Career vs. Milwaukee: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (4 IP, 0 ER), 1 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 1 start

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Brewers at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:04 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Brewers -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Marlins +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+135) | Marlins +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Brewers at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 5, Marlins 4

Moneyline

LEAN BREWERS (-135).

The Brewers are simply the much better team here and in a game where both teams are starting unreliable pitchers, the bats will matter and Milwaukee has the better batters. Milwaukee is also a very good 15-10 overall in road games while Miami is only 8-18 at home.

This is only a lean because the teams are 5-5 in their last 10 meetings and because the Marlins are 2-1 in their last 3 games against Milwaukee in Miami.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I like the Marlins to cover here as +1.5 (-160) underdogs, but the line is not worth the risk of betting set this high, especially when Miami is only 17-31 ATS this season. Bet on the moneyline and/or total instead.

Over/Under

BET OVER 8 (-115).

The Over has hit in 3 consecutive games for the Marlins and is 7-3 in their last 10. For Milwaukee, the Over is 3-1 in its last 4 games and 7-3 in its last 10. The Over has also hit in 2 of the last 3 meetings between these squads, but be aware the Over is only 3-5-2 in the last 10 Milwaukee-Miami matchups.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Marlins (79-75) welcome the Milwaukee Brewers (88-66) to loanDepot park Saturday. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Brewers lead 4-1

The Brewers beat the Marlins to open the series Friday 16-1, scoring a bizarre 12 runs in the second inning. Milwaukee closed as a -142 favorite in the series opener. It has won 4 straight games and is 7-2 over its last 9. The Brewers sit atop the NL Central.

The Marlins rank 3rd in the NL East and are 44-35 at home this season. They are 5-5 over their last 10 games. Miami lost 2 of 3 to the New York Mets after sweeping the Atlanta Braves.

Brewers at Marlins projected starters

RHP Brandon Woodruff vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo

Woodruff (5-1, 1.89 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 0.76 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 62 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 6 K in a 2-1 extra innings home loss to the Washington Nationals Sunday
  • 2023 road stats: 2-0, 2.64 ERA in 30 2/3 IP over 5 starts

Luzardo (10-9, 3.68 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 166 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K in a 16-2 home win over the Braves Sunday
  • 2023 home stats: 5-4, 2.96 ERA in 103 1/3 IP over 18 starts

Brewers at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Brewers -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+145) | Marlins +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Brewers at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 6, Marlins 3

Moneyline

BET BREWERS (-125).

The Brewers are rolling, and they are 48-39 this season following a win. They have won 4 in a row and scored at least 6 in each of those games. With Woodruff on the mound, expect another strong performance from Milwaukee.

Miami is 39-49 as an underdog this season and 15-15 as a home underdog. Milwaukee is 16-13 as a road favorite. The value here mixed with the differences in the pitching makes BREWERS (-125) a good play.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The value just isn’t here. Luzardo has been good enough that he should be able to hold up, but at +1.5 (-175), the Marlins aren’t worth the run-line value after losing by 15 Friday.

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Over/Under

LEAN OVER 7 (-105).

Milwaukee has been a powerhouse at the plate over its last 5 games, scoring 37 runs over its last 4 games. It has gone Over in 2 of Woodruff’s last 3 starts this season.

Miami has gone Over in 5 of its last 6 games with a total this season. It has gone Over in Luzardo’s last 3 starts as well. Expect another exciting game and take OVER 7 (-105).

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Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Marlins (79-74) welcome the Milwaukee Brewers (87-66) to loanDepot park Friday. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Brewers lead 3-1.

The Marlins lost 2 of 3 to the New York Mets from Monday-Wednesday, including an 8-3 defeat as -118 favorites in the series finale Wednesday. Miami is tied for the final NL Wild Card and is 44-34 at home this season.

Milwaukee enters on a 3-game win streak after taking 3 of 4 games against the St. Louis Cardinals to start the week, winning 6-0 Thursday as a -103 underdog. The Brewers are 42-36 on the road this season, 7-3 over their last 10 games and hold an 8-game lead over the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central.

Brewers at Marlins projected starters

RHP Corbin Burnes vs. TBD

Burnes (9-8, 3.56 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 184 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 9-5 home win vs. Washington Nationals Saturday
  • 2023 road splits: 5-5, 2.90 ERA (108 2/3 IP, 35 ER), 10 HR in 17 starts

The Marlins were still undecided on a starter for Friday at the time of publishing.

Brewers at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:32 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Brewers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Marlins +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+125) | Marlins +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Brewers at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 5, Marlins 2

Moneyline

LEAN BREWERS (-140).

The Brewers have won 3 games in a row and are 4-3 over Burnes’ last 7 starts. Milwaukee has performed well this season following a win, going 47-39. Miami has been streaky this season and it is just 36-37 off a loss.

Milwaukee is 48-32 as a favorite and this line is appealing. The Marlins may also play a bullpen game and rank 17th in reliever ERA, so they may not have success on the mound.

Run line/Against the spread

SPRINKLE BREWERS -1.5 (+125).

The Brewers have won 5 of their last 7 games by 2 or more runs, and they have won 3 in a row by at least 4 runs. They covered 3 of 4 games against the Marlins at home from Sept. 11-14.

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Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-105).

The game has gone Under in 3 of Burnes’ last 4 starts. He has been much better on the road as well with just a 2.90 ERA.

Milwaukee is 68-79-5 O/U this season and has gone Under in 3 of its last 4. Miami is 71-77-4 O/U and is 4-4 O/U in its last 8 games.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (14-18) host the Milwaukee Brewers (21-12) Saturday for Game 2 of their 3-game series with the first pitch scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET at LoanDepot park Friday. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee won a pitcher’s duel in the series opener 2-1 Friday as Marlins SP Pablo Lopez only gave up a leadoff solo HR to Brewers 2B Kolten Wong and Brewers SP Corbin Burnes‘ only ER was a solo shot in the bottom of the 3rd.

But, Miami relief pitcher Anthony Bender walked in a Milwaukee baserunner in the top of the 9th to key the Brew Crew’s victory.

Brewers at Marlins projected starters

LHP Eric Lauer vs. LHP Trevor Rogers 

Lauer 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 12.7 K/9 in 29 2/3 IP over 5 starts.

  • Last start: Win 6-3 at the Atlanta Braves Friday with 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 2 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 8 K.
  • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 1.09 FIP with a .155/.182/.224 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA), slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 33.3 K% and 85.1 mph exit velocity (EV) in 27 plate appearances (PA).

Rogers 1-4 with a 5.00 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 27 IP over 6 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Miami’s 3-2 loss at the San Diego Padres Sunday with 5-scoreless IP, 5 H, 2 BB and 3 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Marlins: 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA (11 IP, 1 ER), 10 H, 2 BB and 13 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Brewers: 2.88 FIP with a .212/.239/.310 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 28.1 K% and 90.7 mph EV in 32 PA.

Brewers at Marlins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Brewers -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+140) | Marlins +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

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Brewers at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Marlins 2

Money line

BET the BREWERS (-130) because they hit lefty pitching better than Miami’s and Lauer’s pitching peripherals, both on the year and vs. Saturday’s opponent, are more impressive than Rogers’. Miami’s lineup ranks 26th (83), 27th in wOBA (.279) and 29th in BB/K rate (0.28), according to FanGraphs.

Also, Rogers pitches better on the road for whatever reason. Rogers’ career home winning percentage (30.0%), ERA (5.08) and WHIP (1.46) are all worse than his road marks.

Rogers’ whiff rate, out-of-the-zone swing rate, K% and BB% are all down from last season, per Statcast. The opposite is true of Lauer’s 2022 advanced pitching analytics, in fact, his K% is up 12.3% from last season and Lauer’s whiff rate has improved by 8.0%.

TAKE the BREWERS (-130).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Brewers -1.5 (+140) isn’t a big enough payout considering Milwaukee is 3-11 RL as road favorites and the Marlins +1.5 (-170) are 3-1 RL as home underdogs, which includes Friday’s 2-1 loss to the Brew Crew.

PASS.

Over/Under

LEAN to the UNDER 6.5 (+110) because both Rogers’ home stats and 2022 numbers should progress up to his career averages. The Marlins 2-4 O/U in Rogers’ 5 starts this season despite his 5.00 ERA because their bullpen is solid.

Also, the same could be said about Milwaukee’s bullpen but the lineup also struggles vs. left-handed pitching. The Brewers are 20th in both BB/K rate (0.38) and wRC+ (95), per FanGraphs.

Finally, the weather forecast is predicting 10 mph winds blowing in from centerfield at LoanDepot park, which reduces the chances of long-balls.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (20-12) head to loanDepot park Friday to begin a 3-game set with the Miami Marlins (14-17) at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee has lost back-to-back series and 4 of its last 5 games, including most recently at the Cincinnati Reds 14-11 Wednesday.

Miami is 2-8 in its last 10 games and lost 3 consecutive series, but the Marlins snapped a 3-game losing skid Wednesday with an 11-3 victory at the Arizona Diamondbacks.

These teams split last year’s season series 3-3 with Miami outscoring Milwaukee 27-16 in those meetings.

Brewers at Marlins projected starters

RHP Corbin Burnes vs. RHP Pablo Lopez 

Burnes is 1-2 with a 1.86 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 in 38 2/3 IP over 6 starts.

  • Lost at the Atlanta Braves 3-2 Saturday with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 8 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Marlins: Lost 8-0 in late April with 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
  • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 1.10 FIP with a .220/.265/.327 expected batting average (xBA), expected wOBA (xwOBA), expected slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 31.9 K% and 85.3 mph exit velocity (EV) in 47 plate appearances (PA).

Lopez 4-1 with a 1.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 36 IP across 6 starts.

  • Beat the San Diego Padres 8-0 on the road Saturday with 8 scoreless IP, 5 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Brewers: 0.76 FIP with a .242/.305/.363 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 40.0 K% and 82.7 mph EV in 20 PA.

Brewers at Marlins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:06 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Brewers -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Marlins +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+122) | Marlins +1.5 (-150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Brewers at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Brewers 2

Money line

BET the MARLINS (+125) for a three-fourths unit because their lineup is pretty solid and performs much better in Miami, as does Lopez.

The Marlins are 4th in wRC+ (125) and 6th in wOBA (.337) at home, per FanGraphs. Also, Lopez has a sub-3.00 career home ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 0.71 HR allowed per 9 IP.

Miami is 26-24 overall as home underdogs since the beginning of last season and are tied with the worst luck in the MLB at -3, meaning the Marlins should have 3 more wins based on their run differential.

TAKE the MARLINS (+125) at home.

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Run line/Against the spread

LEAN to the MARLINS +1.5 (-150) because it should cash since Miami is 30-20 RL as home underdogs since the start of last season and the Brewers -1.5 (-120) is 3-10 RL as road favorites.

But, I prefer Miami’s ML because the Marlins are 5-1 overall when Lopez gets the start and their lineup comes alive in Miami.

LEAN to the MARLINS +1.5 (-150).

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the UNDER 6.5 (-110) because there are 2 studs on the mound, including the 2021 NL Cy Young winner (Burnes). Also, Miami’s home ballpark is typically pitcher-friendly.

However, loanDepot park is surprisingly 5th in runs by park factor in 2022, the Brewers are 6-5-2 O/U as road favorites and the Marlins are 2-1 O/U as home underdogs.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (17-16) clash with the Miami Marlins (15-16) for the second game of their three-game set at loadDepot Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami beat the Brewers 6-1 yesterday with Marlins 2B Isan Diaz going 2-for-3 with a home run and 4 RBIs being the standout.

Season series: Marlins 3-1.

RHP Adrian Houser is getting the nod for the Brewers. Houser is 2-3 with a 3.52 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 across 6 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-3, in 6 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 2 K at the Philadelphia Phillies Monday.
  • Career vs. the Marlins: 1-0 with a 3.12 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.92 WHIP and 14.5 K/9 in 1 start and 1 relief appearance.

LHP Daniel Castano is the projected starter for the Marlins. Castano is 0-1 with a 4.73 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.43 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 3.4 K/9 across 3 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-4, in 3 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K at the Brewers on April 28. This was Castano’s only career start vs. Milwaukee.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Brewers at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Marlins -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+140) | Marlins +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Marlins 5, Brewers 2

Money line (ML)

I’m on the MARLINS (-105) for 1 unit because they are playing better than their record indicates the Brewers (-115) are struggling, and Miami has a decent pitching edge over Milwaukee.

The Brewers have lost six straight after taking three of four from the Los Angeles Dodgers last weekend.

Including yesterday’s win, the Marlins have won four in a row, sweeping the Arizona Diamondbacks before this series. Miami also took two of three at Milwaukee from April 26-28.

Milwaukee is fifth in luck factor and has two more wins than it should whereas Miami has the second-worst luck factor and has three fewer wins than it should.

In fact, the Marlins have a plus-24 run differential on the season and are the only NL East team to have a plus-run differential.

Also, Houser’s favorite pitch in his arsenal is the sinker and quite a few Marlins batters hit the sinker well including their cleanup hitter LF Cory Dickerson.

According to Statcast, Dickerson has a .571 batting average, .714 slugging percentage and 66.7% hard-hit rate vs. the sinker. In fact, half of Miami’s lineup has a plus-run value against the sinker.

Furthermore, Statcast grades Houser below the 30th percentile in K%, whiff%, exit velocity, expected wOBA and hard-hit rate.

Finally, Miami’s bullpen has performed much better than Milwaukee’s to this point. The Marlins relievers have a better SIERA, xFIP, K-BB% and WHIP.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the MARLINS -1.5 (+195) alternate run line for a quarter unit if at all because of the nearly 2-to-1 payout and Miami’s plus-run differential.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8 (-115) because Castano pitches much better in Miami than on the road, and the Under is 5-0-1 in the Marlins’ last six games as a home underdog.

Lastly, Miami’s lineup is bad and Milwaukee’s is even worse. The Brewers’ hitters have a lower wOBA, wRC+ and WAR.

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