Tag: Braves Rockies odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Atlanta Braves (86-45) and Colorado Rockies (49-83) close out a 3-game set at Coors Field Wednesday. First pitch is at 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Rockies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 6-0

The Braves won the first 2 games of the series, 3-1 Tuesday and 14-1 Monday, and are 12-1 against the Rockies over the last 2 years. Atlanta has won 6 of 7 overall as it continues to buzzsaw the entire league and is 17-8 against left-handed starters.

The Rockies have lost 8 of 9 games and are just 5-15 over their last 20 outings. They had a minor victory Tuesday in holding the Braves to fewer than 8 runs for the first time this season. Colorado will have the luxury of facing a rookie making his debut in the daunting confines of Coors Field Wednesday.

Braves at Rockies projected starters

RHP Darius Vines vs. LHP Kyle Freeland

Vines is making his major-league debut.

  • Is 2-2 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 46 K in 43 1/3 IP across 9 starts at 3 minor league levels
  • Last start at Triple-A Gwinnett: Loss, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 5 K last Wednesday vs. Nashville Sounds

Freeland (5-13, 5.00 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.47 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 through 135 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 3 K Friday vs. Baltimore Orioles
  • Last 5 starts vs. Braves: 1-3, 6.04 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 21 K in 28 1/3 IP

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Braves at Rockies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 8:15 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Rockies +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-175) | Rockies +1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 13.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Braves at Rockies picks and predictions

Prediction

Rockies 7, Braves 6

Moneyline

We’re going to shoot our shot today. The Braves were originally supposed to start stud RHP Spencer Strider but have opted to give him an extra day of rest. Vines is not overpowering and relies on deception and command, which could be problematic in the thin Mile High air. That’s not exactly a -250 gamble and the Rockies feel a little mispriced here.

LEAN ROCKIES (+200).

Run line/Against the spread

If you’re not willing to shoot your shot on the ML, the Rockies are still priced well on the run line. They held Atlanta to 3 runs Tuesday and figure to be able to put up some runs against a potential deer in the headlights.

Either take the ML and PASS or LEAN ROCKIES +1.5 (+145).

Over/Under

The Over is 5-5 in the last 10 meetings between the teams, but we’ve only seen 14 runs 3 times. The Rockies are also 7-3 O/U over the last 10, but they’ve just topped 14 once in 7 games.

Take the UNDER 13.5 (-105).

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Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Colorado Rockies (23-29) host the Atlanta Braves (26-27) Saturday at Coors Field for the 3rd game of a 4-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta won the first 2 games of this series, 13-6 Thursday and 3-1 in 10 innings Friday.

Friday’s game was 0-0 after 9 innings, spoiling pitching gems from Atlanta SP Max Fried (8 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K) and Colorado SP Chad Kuhl (6 IP, 5 H, 2 BB 3 K). Braves 1B Matt Olson‘s 2-run RBI single in the top of the 10th keyed Atlanta’s victory.

Braves at Rockies projected starters

RHP Spencer Strider vs. LHP Kyle Freeland

Strider is 1-2 with a 2.83 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 13.8 K/9 in 28 2/3 IP across 1 start and 11 relief appearances.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER (5 R), 4 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 7 K in 6-2 final at Arizona Diamondbacks Monday

Freeland is 1-5 with a 4.96 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 52 2/3 IP over 10 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 4 BB, 2 K in 6-5 setback at Washington Nationals Sunday
  • 2022 home splits: 1-3 with a 6.25 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 3 HR, 1.67 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 in 6 starts

Braves at Rockies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:51 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Braves -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Rockies +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-120) | Rockies +1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 11.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Braves at Rockies picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 10, Rockies 4

Money line

BET 1 UNIT on the BRAVES (-190).

They have a decisive 3-phase edge over the Rockies (+155) in starting and relief pitching and hitting.

Strider ranks higher in most advanced pitching metrics than Freeland and his stuff is much nastier. Strider grades in the 99th percentile of K%, 98th percentile of fastball velocity and 95th percentile of whiff rate, per Statcast.

Colorado’s bullpen has the worst ERA (5.27) in baseball and second-worst WHIP (1.50) and xFIP (4.53), according to FanGraphs. Atlanta’s bullpen is 8th in both ERA (3.31) and xFIP (3.68) and 3rd in home runs allowed per 9 innings (0.61).

The Braves are 12-6 overall vs. left-handed starters and their lineup is 2nd in wRC+ (121) and 3rd in wOBA (.349) against lefties. The Rockies are 16-19 vs. right-handed starters, 24th in wRC+ (87) and score almost 1 run less per 9 against righties.

If your standard wager is $100, risk that on BRAVES (-190) to earn a $52.63 payout.

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Run line/Against the spread

LEAN BRAVES -1.5 (-120) because it should cash, and I’m not crazy about laying it with the Rockies +1.5 (+100) at Coors Field.

A bigger wager on Atlanta’s ML is a better option, but the Braves should hammer the Rockies Saturday.

Over/Under

PASS.

There’s suspicious reverse-line movement headed south of the total in the betting market (per Pregame.com) and this is a sharp number. Most of the public and cash is on the Over, but the total has been lowered from a 12-run opener. It seems like the sportsbooks are daring the public to bet the Over.

Also, the Braves are 5-6 O/U as road favorites and the Rockies are 6-9 O/U as home underdogs.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (25-27) meet the Colorado Rockies (23-28) Friday at Coors Field for the 2nd of their 4-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta crushed Colorado 13-6 Thursday in the series opener and first meeting of the season, highlighted by Braves C Travis d’Arnaud‘s 2-HR and 6-RBI night.

Braves at Rockies projected starters

LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Chad Kuhl

Fried is 5-2 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 61 IP over 10 starts.

  • Last start: Won 6-3 Sunday at home vs. the Miami Marlins with 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 5 K.
  • Career at Coors Field: 1-0 with a 3.12 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 8 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 6 K in 1 start and 1 bullpen outing.

Kuhl is 4-2 with a 3.56 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 48 IP over 9 starts.

  • Last start: Won 3-2 Saturday at the Washington Nationals with 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 7 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Braves: One start while pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates, a no-decision in Pittsburgh’s 2-1 home win with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 7 K.

Braves at Rockies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:22 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Braves -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Rockies +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-120) | Rockies +1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 11.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Braves at Rockies picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 7, Rockies 3

Money line

LEAN BRAVES (-180) because this is on the fringe of my price range and might opt to be greedy by using Atlanta’s ML in a parlay with another similarly priced line for a better payout. But, I want action on the Braves here since they have a significant pitching advantage.

Fried is the ace of the reigning World Series champs and has elite stuff. Four of Fried’s 5 pitches have a minus-run value (RV) and he grades in the 95th percentile in chase rate (per Statcast) and Fried’s FIP is lower than his ERA.

Kuhl is off to a nice year himself but grades in the 38th percentile or worse in chase rate, hard-hit rate and exit velocity, according to Statcast. Kuhl’s slider is one of the more effective pitches in the MLB but 4 of his other 5 pitches have a plus-RV.

Also, Atlanta’s bullpen ranks far ahead of Colorado’s in WAR (3.2-0.8), ERA (5.28-3.34), FIP (4.28-2.95), K/BB rate (3.04-1.86) and chase rate (34.2-30.2%), per FanGraphs.

Finally, Atlanta’s ML has taken heavy sharp action as the Braves opened at -161 but are all the way up to -180, according to Pregame.com.

Let’s follow the money and RISK 1 unit on the BRAVES (-180) instead of betting 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There might not be a good return on investment for laying it with RL favorites visiting Coors Field so the Braves -1.5 (-120) is a no-go. The Rockies are 38-24 RL as home underdogs since the beginning of last year.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the UNDER 11.5 (-130) there’s reverse line movement headed south of the total in the betting market and the Under has cashed in 5 of the last 7 Braves-Rockies meetings in Colorado.

According to Pregame.com, roughly 90% of the cash is on the Over 11.5 (+105) but the Under is more expensive, which suggests the oddsmakers are trying to entice more action on the Over.

That said, Coors Field is notoriously the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball, Atlanta’s lineup has been raking the last 2 weeks and Colorado’s lineup ranks highly in several advanced hitting metrics vs. left-handed pitching.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (24-27) open a 4-game road series against the Colorado Rockies (23-27) Thursday. First pitch is 8:40 p.m. ET at Coors Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

This is the first meeting between the two teams this season.

The Braves are coming off a 3-game road series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. They lost 2 of the 3 contests but picked up a 6-0 in the finale on Wednesday. They are 7-7 in their last 14 games.

The Rockies took 2 of 3 games against the Miami Marlins to start the week as they began a 7-game homestand.

Braves at Rockies projected starters

RHP Ian Anderson vs. LHP Austin Gomber

Anderson (3-3, 4.34 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 47 2/3 IP.

  • Is 3-2 with a 2.79 ERA in 5 road starts as he has had a decision in each outing away from Truist Park.
  • Has allowed 4 runs in both of his last 2 starts which have resulted in a 6.17 ERA over his last 11 2/3 innings.

Gomber (2-5, 5.51 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 through 47 1/3 IP.

  • Was rocked for 8 ER on 7 H and 3 BB in just 1 1/3 IP at the Washington Nationals Saturday in his last start.
  • Is 1-2 with a 4.13 ERA in 4 starts this season at Coors Field.

Braves at Rockies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Braves -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Rockies +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-103) | Rockies +1.5 (-117)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 11.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Braves at Rockies picks and predictions

Prediction

Rockies 6, Braves 3

Money line

The Braves are 10-13 on the road this season and lost 2 of 3 contests to the Diamondbacks in the series coming into Thursday’s game. They have lost Anderson’s last 2 road starts.

The Rockies have lost Gomber’s last 4 starts but continue to be a much better team at home than on the road. They are 16-12 at home, which ties them for the 2nd-most home wins in the National League, and 7-15 on the road.

They are 7-6 this season at home underdogs, while the Braves are 5-4 as road favorites.

Seemingly a toss-up in terms of trends, I like the potential payout for a Colorado win.

Take ROCKIES (+125).

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Run line/Against the spread

The Braves are only 4-5 ATS this season as road favorites, while Colorado is 8-5 ATS as home ‘dogs.

Anderson’s 1 career start at Coors Field lasted 3 innings and he allowed 4 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks. He did not get a decision in that game.

Take the ROCKIES +1.5 (-117).

Over/Under

Only 2 of the Braves’ last 13 games had 12 runs or more.

Eight of the Rockies’ last 12 home games have had totals of 12 or more runs.

Only 3 of Gomber’s 9 starts have had 12 or more runs, but those have come in his last 4 starts.

Only 1 of the Braves’ last 6 losses had more than 11 runs and only 1 of their last 21 wins has gone over 11 runs.

Take UNDER 11.5 (-120).

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

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Additional MLB coverage:
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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (71-64) close out their four-game road series with the Colorado Rockies (63-73) Sunday afternoon, hoping to salvage a split. First pitch is at 3:10 p.m. ET at Coors Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Braves RHP Charlie Morton (12-5, 3.52 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 151 IP.

  • The Braves lost his last two starts and four of his last six. While he is 12-5, the Braves are 14-13 when he gets the start.
  • He has allowed more than 3 runs only once in his last 10 starts.

Rockies RHP Ryan Feltner makes his major league debut. He went 8-3 with a 2.62 ERA in the minor leagues this year and had a 1.22 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 through 110 IP.

  • Feltner had seven starts for High-A Spokane and 13 for Double-A Hartford.
  • He had a quality start in seven of his last eight minor league starts.

Braves at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Rockies +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (-130) | Rockies +1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under: 11.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

Rockies 6, Braves 4

Money line (ML)

After winning nine in a row from Aug. 13-22, the Braves are struggling a bit, having lost eight of their last 11 games. After taking the opener against the Rockies 6-5, they dropped back-to-back 1-run games. The NL East leaders are 38-32 on the road this season.

The Rockies continue to be two different teams when at home or when on the road. They are 18-50 away from Coors Field but 45-23 at home. They have the second-most home wins and second-highest home winning percentage in baseball and have won 11 of their last 13 home games.

Even with Feltner making his MLB debut, take the ROCKIES (+160).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Braves are 63-72 ATS this season but 41-29 ATS on the road. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games.

The Rockies top all of baseball with a 45-23 ATS record at home. They covered four straight games overall and seven of their last 10. They have gone seven straight games without losing by more than one run.

I expect an outright win by Colorado, but if your confidence level isn’t as high on betting the money line, take the ROCKIES +1.5 (+105).

Over/Under (O/U)

Despite the reputation, only 43.9% of the games at Coors Field this season have gone Over the projected total. It is the seventh-lowest home Over percentage in the league.

Saturday’s game against the Rockies was the first in 14 games the Braves had a total of 12 or more runs. Only two of Morton’s last 10 starts had a total that would beat today’s projected total.

Four of the last nine games for the Rockies at home had at least 12 runs.

Take UNDER 11.5 (-112).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Colorado Rockies (62-73) host the Atlanta Braves (71-63) Saturday for the third game of their four-game series at Coors Field with the first pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The series is even headed into the third game after the Rockies beat the Braves 4-3 Saturday thanks to a quality start from Colorado RHP Antonio Senzatela who had 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 3 K.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

RHP Ian Anderson is Atlanta’s projected starter. He is 6-5 with a 3.36 ERA (101 2/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 over 19 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 9-0, with 5 2/3 IP, 4 H, 2 BB and 0 K Sunday against the San Francisco Giants.
  • 2021 road stats: 3-4 with a 3.16 ERA (51 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.36 WHIP and 2.2 K/BB across 10 starts.

RHP German Marquez takes the ball for the Rockies. He is 11-10 with a 4.10 ERA (156 IP, 71 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 27 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-3, with 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 2 K Monday at the Texas Rangers.
  • 2021 home stats: 8-2 with a 3.13 ERA (89 IP, 31 ER), 1.09 WHIP, and 2.6 K/BB across 15 starts.
    • vs. Braves on the current roster (70 PA): 6.80 FIP with a .318 batting average, .440 wOBA, .450 expected slugging percentage, 14.3 K% and 88.7 mph exit velocity.

Braves at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Rockies -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+130) | Rockies +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Braves 9, Rockies 5

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the BRAVES (-115) for a half unit as more of a fade against Marquez, but we are also getting a good price for an Atlanta team that has won 69.2% of its games as a road favorite (27-12).

Marquez appeared in his first All-Star Game this year but is 3-4 with a 5.98 ERA (43 2/3 IP, 29 ER) and 1.37 WHIP in the second half of the season. Perhaps this is a get-right spot; however, I’ll lose money in this spot if he has a quality outing against a Braves lineup that rakes him.

Furthermore, Atlanta’s lineup is better than Colorado vs. right-handed pitching and the Braves have an edge in relief pitching.

That said, the only reason I LEAN BRAVES (-115) is that we are seeing some “reverse line movement” in the betting market so this is definitely of a square play. Sometimes us squares win in this racket.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS since I only “lean” Atlanta on the money line and, while the Braves have the eighth-best cover rate on the road at 38-31 ATS, the Rockies have the third-best home cover rate at 44-23 ATS.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 10.5 (-130) for a half unit because both sides of the market are barreling into the Over. The oddsmakers have responded by making the Over pretty expensive to try and lure sports bettors into taking the Under.

However, I much prefer Atlanta’s money line rather than the total and even feel stronger about that bet seeing as we have a high total. If sportsbooks are projecting a higher scoring game then give me the better lineup and more reliable bullpen.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (71-62) clash with the Colorado Rockies (61-73) Friday for the second game of their four-game series at Coors Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta took the series opener 6-5 thanks to a decisive 3-run 5th-inning rally and the Braves’ bullpen pitching six scoreless innings with 5 K and 0 BB.

Season series: Braves lead 1-0.

RHP Huascar Ynoa is Atlanta’s projected starting pitcher. Ynoa is 4-4 with a 2.90 ERA (62 IP, 20 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 11 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-0, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 3 K against the San Francisco Giants Saturday.
  • Career road splits: 1-2 with a 4.85 ERA (39 IP, 21 ER), 1.46 WHIP and 1.9 K/BB in eight starts and four bullpen outings.

RHP Antonio Senzatela makes his 23rd start for the Rockies. Senzatela is 3-9 with a 4.18 ERA (125 IP, 58 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9.

  • Last outing: Win, 5-0, with 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 5 K at the Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday.
  • 2021 home splits: 2-3 with a 3.89 ERA (71 2/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.23 WHIP and 3.3 K/BB in 12 starts.

Braves at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:44 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Rockies +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+105) | Rockies +1.5 (-130)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

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Prediction

Braves 7, Rockies 3

Money line (ML)

Maybe I’m a sucker but BRAVES (-140) is too good of a price to pass up. Sportsbooks typically profit off this logic, but the only teams that have beaten Atlanta over the past three weeks are the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees and the Giants.

The Braves have an edge in the three most important phases of the game and that holds more weight in my eyes than how well the Rockies play at home. While Ynoa took a loss in his last start, he had a quality start.

On the other hand, Senzatela grades in the bottom-third of pitchers in hard-hit rate, expected wOBA, exit velocity, K% and whiff rate. Also, Colorado is just 8-14 overall in Senzatela starts.

Atlanta’s lineup is more productive against right-handed pitching and the Braves have the third-best winning percentage as a road favorite at 27-11.

BET 1 unit on the BRAVES (-140). 

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” on the Braves -1.5 (+105) because they are 20-18 ATS as a road favorite and Atlanta’s lineup is lethal enough to rake Colorado’s pitching staff and win by margin.

However, the Rockies have one of the bigger home ballpark advantages in the MLB and are 26-10 ATS as a home underdog. There’s just not enough value in the Braves -1.5 (+105).

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 10.5 (+110) for a tiny wager because I much prefer Atlanta’s money line and we are getting the worst of the number. Braves-Rockies opened with a 12.5-run total before the market steamed it down to the current number.

That said, I agree with the market’s read on this total because Atlanta is 27-40-1 O/U on the road and Colorado is 28-36-2 O/U at home. Coors Field is notorious for being the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league but it’s always accounted for in the price of the total. Hence the Rockies playing to the Under at a 56.2% clip in Colorado.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (70-62) and Colorado Rockies (61-72) commence a four-game series Thursday at Coors Field. First pitch is set for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Braves RHP Touki Toussaint (3-2, 3.60 ERA) makes his eighth start in his ninth game. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 40 IP.

  • Sports an xERA nearly a full run higher than his surface number while ranking in the bottom third percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
  • Throws breaking balls over 75% of the time and has been tagged for an 18.9% HR/FB rate.

Rockies RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez (3-6, 6.08 ERA) makes his 17th start and his 22nd appearance. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 5.1 K/9 through 94 2/3 IP.

  • Making his fourth start and fifth appearance of the second half; allowed 14 ER over 12 IP across his previous three starts.
  • Has the fifth-highest ERA, and sixth-lowest K-BB%, of any pitcher with at least 90 IP.

Braves at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at noon ET.

  • Money line: Braves -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Rockies +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (-110) | Rockies +1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 12.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Prediction

Rockies 6, Braves 5

Money line (ML)

The Braves enter Thursday’s contest on a three-game losing skid after a trip to Los Angeles to play the Dodgers, and things don’t get a lot easier with a visit to Colorado. The Rockies have baseball’s second-best home record at 43-22, despite their abysmal overall record.

Having Gonzalez on the mound doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence here, but Toussaint is also pitching well beyond his abilities and a heavy breaking ball arsenal may lend itself to disaster at Coors Field if a few of them are left hanging.

If this one ends up in the hands of the bullpens sooner than later that doesn’t hurt the Rockies, either. Colorado’s relievers rank better than Atlanta’s in SIERA, xFIP and K-BB% over the second half of the season.

Consider a partial-unit play on the home side. Take the ROCKIES (+130).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Oddsmakers have been disrespecting the Rockies on their home turf all season. Colorado’s 64.6% cover rate at home is the league’s only mark above 60%, and that number jumps to 71.4% when the Rockies are home underdogs on the strength of a 25-10 ATS record.

The Braves are no slouches on the road, but given a belief the Rockies can get this done on the money line, I’m going to back them on the run line as well.

The value is great here for a team that performs well at home and if you’re not comfortable with them winning outright then getting an extra run and a half of insurance might be what you’re after.

BACK COLORADO +1.5 (-110).

Over/Under (O/U)

Generally, I’d “lean” to an Under when I see a total as high as 12.5. Coors Field has a well-deserved reputation as a great ballpark for hitters but totals are often inflated multiple runs there and it has played mostly to the Under this season.

However, this pitching matchup doesn’t appeal to me in taking an Under. I’m going to go ahead and PASS on the O/U.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @unansweredpoint on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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