Tag: Braves Phillies odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Atlanta Braves (0-2) and Philadelphia Phillies (2-0) close out their season-opening, three-game set Sunday at 1:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Ian Anderson is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. Anderson, who made his MLB debut last August, went 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, and 3.9 BB/9 in 32 1/3 IP over six starts last season. He was 2-0 with an 0.96 ERA in four postseason starts.

RHP Zach Eflin is projected to start for the Phillies. He was 4-2 with a 3.97 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 59 IP over 11 games (10 starts) in 2020. Eflin battled a back problem toward the end of spring training, so he could be on a short leash Sunday.

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Braves at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:50 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Braves -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
• Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+125) | Phillies +1.5 (-150)
• Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

Back the BRAVES -135. Look for Atlanta to get going against a pitcher it has hit well before. The Braves scored just two runs in their first two games. They averaged 5.9 runs per game against the Phillies in 2020.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. The outright (money line) play on the Braves is solid. Both clubs played more one-run games than average a year ago.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Braves and Phillies figure as two first-division offensive clubs. Both are strong against righty pitching. Neither side has had things cranked up yet. Sunday’s game, the third of this series, could yield some less-than-optimum bullpen matchups. Plus, Eflin’s status brings in some potential for chaos, and Atlanta batters own an .844 OPS against him.

Take the OVER 8 (-115).

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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The Atlanta Braves (0-1) play the Philadelphia Phillies (1-0) Saturday at 4:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies with MLB picks and predictions.

The Phillies pulled out a 3-2 win in the bottom of the 10th on Opening Day with walk-off 2B Jean Segura single RBI.

Season series: Phillies 1-0.

RHP Charlie Morton takes the mound for his Braves debut after playing for the Tampa Bay Rays from 2019-20. Morton was 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 38 IP across 9 starts.

• 2020 vs. Phillies: 5 innings pitched with 3 ER, 7 H, 8 K, 1 BB and a no-decision in 1 start.
• 2021 Spring Training: 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 8 H, 9 K, 4 BB) over 3 starts.

RHP Zack Wheeler makes his first start of the season against the Braves. Wheeler was 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 71 IP over 11 starts in his first season in Philadelphia.

• 2020 vs. Braves: 0-0 with a 2.13 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 11 K, 1 BB) in 2 starts.
• Career vs. Braves: 6-5 with a 3.79 ERA (97 1/3 IP, 41 ER, 86 K, 40 BB) in 16 starts.

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Braves at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:00 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Braves -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+150) | Phillies +1.5 (-185)
• Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Phillies 7, Braves 4

Money line (ML)

Morton was a Cy Young-caliber pitcher from 2017-19 but really had a down year in 2020’s 60-game sprint.

His ERA shot up from 3.24 in 2017-19 to 4.74 last season, and Morton was below the MLB average for the slash metrics (batting average/on-base percentage and slugging percentage) and advanced stats such as exit velocity and ground ball-to-fly ball rate.

We’ll see this season if the 37-year-old Morton has aged out of his peak years or if he regains his somewhat recent dominance.

But, Philadelphia is 4-1 in the last meetings with Atlanta, and the Phillies’ lineup was top-10 on wOBA and wRC+ vs. righties in 2020. So my money is on Morton not having a strong outing Saturday.

BET PHILLIES (-105) for 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a “LEAN” towards Phillies +1.5 (-185) because I’d entertain parlaying this run line with another similarly priced favorite or run line for a plus-money payout.

Also, Philadelphia’s bullpen was 9-14 with the worst ERA in the majors last season, which means Atlanta could absolutely steal this game late.

Over/Under (O/U)

We’ve already discussed Morton possibly being washed up and Philadelphia’s solid season last year in the batter’s box, but let’s not forget Atlanta was in the conversation for “best lineup in the majors” in 2020.

Additionally, Wheeler’s second-most used pitch in his arsenal is his sinker, and the Braves mashers—1B Freddie Freeman, LF Marcell Ozuna and RF Ronald Acuña Jr.—have a 50% or better hard-hit rate vs. sinkers.

Finally, Citizens Bank Park was tied for first with home runs, third in FIP of any ballpark in the Majors and the Over has cashed in six of the previous eight Braves-Phillies games.

BET OVER 8 (-105) for 1 unit.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies will meet Thursday at 3:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Max Fried is the projected starter pitcher for the Braves. In 2020, Fried went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 56 IP over 11 starts. Fried faced Philadelphia twice, allowing just one run over 10 frames.

RHP Aaron Nola is due to start for the Phillies. A year ago, he went 5-5 with a 3.28 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 12.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 71 1/3 IP over 12 starts. Nola kept his ground-ball rate high in 2020 (50%) while posting career-best whiff rates. In 71 career games at Citizens, the veteran hurler has held foes to a sparkling .637 OPS.

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Braves at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Wednesday at 6:42 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Braves -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+150) | Phillies +1.5 (-185)
• Over/Under: 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Braves 4, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

Pegging the starting pitching matchup as even – at least for argument’s sake, and taking into account the O/U win totals (91.5 for Atlanta, 80.5 for Philadelphia), getting the Braves at anything less than -110 looks like a solid value. Throw in the fact Atlanta torched righty pitching last season (.859 OPS) and ATLANTA (-105) is a solid Opening Day play.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Stick to the lesser-juice side in this one. PASS on the run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Over has gotten attention with the low total for this contest. A hefty breeze in from left is expected. Go with contrarian lean toward the UNDER 7 (+100). Consider waiting out a 7.5-run tag or limit your exposure with a partial-unit play at 7.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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