Tag: Braves Phillies odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (42-32) and Philadelphia Phillies (39-35) meet Tuesday night at 7:05 p.m. ET to open a 3-game series at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: tied 2-2.

The Braves are looking to stay hot on the road. Atlanta is 9-2 over its last 11 games away from home. Over that stretch, the Braves have averaged 6.55 runs per game while allowing just 2.91.

The Phillies are back at home after a lengthy road trip, which included stops in San Diego, Dallas and Washington, D.C. The Phils went 7-4 on an 11-game trip and that despite logging just a .634 OPS at the plate. Philadelphia pitchers clocked a 3.53 ERA on the trip; they own a 3.46 mark since May 29.

Braves at Phillies projected starters

RHP Charlie Morton vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Morton (4-3, 4.84 ERA) has made 14 starts, logging a 1.28 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 74 1/3 IP.

  • Has fanned 32 batters — against just 1 walk — over his last 20 IP. Has allowed just 2 runs over his last 2 starts (14 IP).
  • Has authored a 2.63 ERA across his last 5 starts against the Phillies.

Wheeler (6-4, 2.77 ERA) owns a 1.11 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 74 2/3 IP in 13 starts.

  • Owns a 2.16 ERA over his last 5 outings against Atlanta.
  • Has allowed just 2R across his last 5 starts at Citizens. Has recorded a 2.20 ERA at home over the last 3 years (2020-22).

Braves at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 7:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL): Braves -1.5 (-165) | Phillies +1.5 (-205)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 3

Money line

Atlanta has the hotter offense, and it’s one that performs quite well on the road. The Braves’ .738 road OPS ranks fourth in the league.

Morton is a fly-baller that has been a bit undone by a 15.1% home run rate on balls hit in the air. He gets helped by a friendly pitcher’s forecast (75 degrees, inward breeze) and is facing a Philadelphia club perhaps fatigued by its long road trip.

The Phillies are also a club that has surged against a suspect schedule of late.

BACK THE BRAVES (+100).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS: It’s hard to fade Wheeler too much as he has been great thus far. If you’re on board with Atlanta, just take the even-money ML.

Over/Under

There are equal parts ammo for backing the Braves offense and pitching while also liking the Phillies overall pitching. Mix in two rested bullpens, and SITTING THIS ONE OUT makes the most sense.

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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (47-49) and Philadelphia Phillies (48-48) play the third game of a four-game set Saturday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Drew Smyly is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 7-3 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 over 84 innings across 16 starts.

The southpaw allowed just 3 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks with 6 strikeouts across 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision Sunday against the Tampa Bay Rays. Smyly has won five straight decisions and hasn’t lost in eight starts dating back to May 26 in Boston.

RHP Vince Velasquez is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 3-4 with a 5.00 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9 across 77 1/3 innings in 15 starts and four relief appearances.

Velasquez allowed 1 hit and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts across 5 scoreless innings in a no-decision against the Miami Marlins last Saturday. He is 0-2 with an 8.78 ERA through three starts in July.

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Braves at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-180) | Phillies -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under: 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Braves 7, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

The BRAVES (+105) are a solid value at plus money in the third game of this set. Smyly is the difference in this one as he’s been red-hot and not yielding much of anything.

Look for Atlanta, who has alternated wins and losses in each of its last seven games, to push past Philadelphia.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The ALTERNATE RUN LINE BRAVES -1.5 (+155) is an even better value behind their lefty starter. Atlanta is 3-1 ATS across the last four games, cashing once as a favorite and twice as an underdog during the span.

Over/Under (O/U)

The OVER 10 (-105) is the lean, ever so slightly. The wind will be blowing out to straightaway center field at a 7-10 mph clip – not a huge jetstream but enough to aid batters who get it up into the air.

Smyly has been limiting the damage lately, but Velasquez has been very giving.

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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (46-48) and Philadelphia Phillies (47-47) play the opener of a four-game set Thursday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Charlie Morton is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 8-3 with a 3.69 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 over 105 innings across 19 starts.

Morton is coming off consecutive quality starts, going 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 15 strikeouts across 13 innings. He is 1-2 with a 3.09 ERA and 13 strikeouts across 11 2/3 innings in three starts against Philadelphia this season.

LHP Matt Moore is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 0-1 with a 5.25 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 across 36 innings in 7 starts and 6 relief appearances.

Moore has not lasted longer than five innings in any of his seven starts. In his most recent start, he allowed just two runs, six hits and no walks with nine strikeouts across 4 1/3 innings in a no-decision against the Miami Marlins Friday.

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Braves at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:04 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Phillies +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+105) | Phillies +1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Braves 6, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

The BRAVES (-155) are moderate road favorites in the series opener. It’s all about the pitching matchup here, and Morton is the much better option. He has been humming along lately.

While Philadelphia has beaten him twice in three outings, it’s mostly due to a lack of offensive support, not anything bad on his part.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The BRAVES -1.5 (+105) are worth a roll of the dice at near even-money.

Again, it’s all about Morton. He has lasted at least six innings in five of his past six outings, and he’ll limit the damage in Philadelphia. As long as Atlanta’s offense doesn’t have a power outage like it had in two of his three previous tries against the Phillies, the Braves will easily get it done in the series opener.

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER 9 (+100) is worth playing in this battle.

The Under has connected in five of the past seven starts by Morton. While the Over is 3-0 in Moore’s past three outings, it’s mostly due to an explosive offense, and not his pitching.

The Phillies outscored their opponents 29-7 in Morton’s past three starts. The pitching will be very good, and that’s why the play is the UNDER 9.

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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (29-30) and Philadelphia Phillies (29-31) close out a three-game series Thursday at 1:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Ian Anderson is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 4-3 with a 3.64 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, and 3.8 BB/9 in 59 1/3 IP over 11 starts.

Anderson has yielded eight runs in his last 8 1/3 IP, but he’s been undone mostly by rates around the margins (batting average on balls in play, left-on-base rate, etc.). He has already faced Philadelphia three times this season (4.41 ERA in 16 IP).

RHP Zack Wheeler is the projected starter for the Phillies. He is 4-3 with a 2.51 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9 in 82 1/3 IP over 12 starts.

Wheeler owns a nifty 2.08 ERA (with a 14.9% swinging-strike rate) over his last five turns. He’s posted a sub-2.25 ERA in four starts against Atlanta the last two seasons.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Braves at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:54 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Phillies -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-175) | Phillies -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Braves 4, Phillies 3

Money line (ML)

The Phillies have fallen off since playing well over the front half of May. Heading into Wednesday night, they were 7-13 since May 15.

Right-handers swing the Phillies around to their worst platoon splits (.680 OPS). Wheeler is coming off back-to-back 100-pitch games and has been a bit batting-average-on-balls-in-play fortunate of late (.275 BABIP for the season).

BACK THE BRAVES (+115).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Stick with the ML play on the Braves; PASS on the added juice here.

Over/Under (O/U)

Atlanta on the road is a lesser brand of offense (.699 OPS). Add in some upside faith in both bullpens, then mix in a low-humidity, wind-in-from-right get-away day. BACK THE UNDER 7.5 (+100).

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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (0-2) and Philadelphia Phillies (2-0) close out their season-opening, three-game set Sunday at 1:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Ian Anderson is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. Anderson, who made his MLB debut last August, went 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, and 3.9 BB/9 in 32 1/3 IP over six starts last season. He was 2-0 with an 0.96 ERA in four postseason starts.

RHP Zach Eflin is projected to start for the Phillies. He was 4-2 with a 3.97 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 59 IP over 11 games (10 starts) in 2020. Eflin battled a back problem toward the end of spring training, so he could be on a short leash Sunday.

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Braves at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+125) | Phillies +1.5 (-150)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

Back the BRAVES -135. Look for Atlanta to get going against a pitcher it has hit well before. The Braves scored just two runs in their first two games. They averaged 5.9 runs per game against the Phillies in 2020.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. The outright (money line) play on the Braves is solid. Both clubs played more one-run games than average a year ago.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Braves and Phillies figure as two first-division offensive clubs. Both are strong against righty pitching. Neither side has had things cranked up yet. Sunday’s game, the third of this series, could yield some less-than-optimum bullpen matchups. Plus, Eflin’s status brings in some potential for chaos, and Atlanta batters own an .844 OPS against him.

Take the OVER 8 (-115).

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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (0-1) play the Philadelphia Phillies (1-0) Saturday at 4:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies with MLB picks and predictions.

The Phillies pulled out a 3-2 win in the bottom of the 10th on Opening Day with walk-off 2B Jean Segura single RBI.

Season series: Phillies 1-0.

RHP Charlie Morton takes the mound for his Braves debut after playing for the Tampa Bay Rays from 2019-20. Morton was 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 38 IP across 9 starts.

  • 2020 vs. Phillies: 5 innings pitched with 3 ER, 7 H, 8 K, 1 BB and a no-decision in 1 start.
  • 2021 Spring Training: 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 8 H, 9 K, 4 BB) over 3 starts.

RHP Zack Wheeler makes his first start of the season against the Braves. Wheeler was 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 71 IP over 11 starts in his first season in Philadelphia.

  • 2020 vs. Braves: 0-0 with a 2.13 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 11 K, 1 BB) in 2 starts.
  • Career vs. Braves: 6-5 with a 3.79 ERA (97 1/3 IP, 41 ER, 86 K, 40 BB) in 16 starts.

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Braves at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:00 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+150) | Phillies +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Phillies 7, Braves 4

Money line (ML)

Morton was a Cy Young-caliber pitcher from 2017-19 but really had a down year in 2020’s 60-game sprint.

His ERA shot up from 3.24 in 2017-19 to 4.74 last season, and Morton was below the MLB average for the slash metrics (batting average/on-base percentage and slugging percentage) and advanced stats such as exit velocity and ground ball-to-fly ball rate.

We’ll see this season if the 37-year-old Morton has aged out of his peak years or if he regains his somewhat recent dominance.

But, Philadelphia is 4-1 in the last meetings with Atlanta, and the Phillies’ lineup was top-10 on wOBA and wRC+ vs. righties in 2020. So my money is on Morton not having a strong outing Saturday.

BET PHILLIES (-105) for 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a “LEAN” towards Phillies +1.5 (-185) because I’d entertain parlaying this run line with another similarly priced favorite or run line for a plus-money payout.

Also, Philadelphia’s bullpen was 9-14 with the worst ERA in the majors last season, which means Atlanta could absolutely steal this game late.

Over/Under (O/U)

We’ve already discussed Morton possibly being washed up and Philadelphia’s solid season last year in the batter’s box, but let’s not forget Atlanta was in the conversation for “best lineup in the majors” in 2020.

Additionally, Wheeler’s second-most used pitch in his arsenal is his sinker, and the Braves mashers—1B Freddie Freeman, LF Marcell Ozuna and RF Ronald Acuña Jr.—have a 50% or better hard-hit rate vs. sinkers.

Finally, Citizens Bank Park was tied for first with home runs, third in FIP of any ballpark in the Majors and the Over has cashed in six of the previous eight Braves-Phillies games.

BET OVER 8 (-105) for 1 unit.

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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies will meet Thursday at 3:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Max Fried is the projected starter pitcher for the Braves. In 2020, Fried went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 56 IP over 11 starts. Fried faced Philadelphia twice, allowing just one run over 10 frames.

RHP Aaron Nola is due to start for the Phillies. A year ago, he went 5-5 with a 3.28 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 12.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 71 1/3 IP over 12 starts. Nola kept his ground-ball rate high in 2020 (50%) while posting career-best whiff rates. In 71 career games at Citizens, the veteran hurler has held foes to a sparkling .637 OPS.

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Braves at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Wednesday at 6:42 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+150) | Phillies +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Braves 4, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

Pegging the starting pitching matchup as even – at least for argument’s sake, and taking into account the O/U win totals (91.5 for Atlanta, 80.5 for Philadelphia), getting the Braves at anything less than -110 looks like a solid value. Throw in the fact Atlanta torched righty pitching last season (.859 OPS) and ATLANTA (-105) is a solid Opening Day play.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Stick to the lesser-juice side in this one. PASS on the run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Over has gotten attention with the low total for this contest. A hefty breeze in from left is expected. Go with contrarian lean toward the UNDER 7 (+100). Consider waiting out a 7.5-run tag or limit your exposure with a partial-unit play at 7.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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