Tag: Braves Astros odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros continue the World Series Tuesday with Game 6 at Minute Maid Park. With Atlanta leading the best-of-seven series 3-2, first pitch is scheduled for 8:09 p.m. ET (on FOX). Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Behind a shuffled lineup, the Astros avoided elimination with a 9-5 victory in Atlanta Sunday. The new batting order paid off as Houston rallied from deficits of 4-0 (Atlanta CF Adam Duvall hit a first-inning grand slam) and 5-4 (after three innings).

Braves LHP Max Fried (14-7, 3.04 ERA regular season) will make his second start of the World Series and his fifth start of this postseason.

• Career vs. Astros: 0-1, 10.80 ERA (5 IP, 6 ER), 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 7-2 road loss in Wednesday’s Game 2, which was his last outing
• 2021 postseason: 1-2, 5.40 ERA (21 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 26 H, 3 BB, 23 K in four starts
• Career postseason: 1-3, 4.53 ERA (51 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 53 K in 16 games (eight starts)

Houston will counter with rookie RHP Luis Garcia (11-8, 3.48 ERA regular season) on short rest in what will likely be a “bullpen game.” Like Fried, he’ll also be making his second World Series start and his fifth of this postseason.

• Career vs. Braves: 0-1, 2.45 ERA (3 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 3 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 2-0 road loss in Friday’s Game 3, which was his last outing
• 2021 postseason: 1-2, 7.62 ERA (13 IP, 11 ER), 11 H, 11 BB, 18 K in four starts
• Career postseason: 1-2, 6.60 ERA (15 IP, 11 ER), 11 H, 13 BB, 19 K in five starts

Braves at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Braves +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Astros -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-190) | Astros -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Braves 4, Astros 3

Money line (ML)

ATLANTA (+105) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.

There are two ways this goes down. Atlanta wins a low-scoring game or Houston wins a high-scoring game.

Sure, Fried is coming off two terrible outings. Houston scored 6 runs in 5 innings against him in Game 2, and he was touched for 5 runs in 4 2/3 innings of an NLCS Game 5 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers Oct. 21.

Fried is too good of a pitcher to suffer a third bad start in a row.  From Aug. 3 to the end of the regular season, Fried went 7-0 with a 1.46 ERA (74 IP, 12 ER) in 11 starts. He tossed 2 complete games and held opponents to a .183 batting average as the Braves went 10-1 during that span.

In his first two postseason starts, he allowed just 2 runs in 12 innings with 14 strikeouts, going 1-0 with 1.50 ERA while the Braves won both games.

Fried grew up in Los Angeles and is a big fan of fellow southpaw Sandy Koufax, the Hall of Famer who is one of the best left-handers of all time.

Look for Fried to have his Koufax World Series moment Tuesday night.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS due to the prices being a bit steep in Atlanta +1.5 (-190) and the alternate line of Houston +1.5 (-210).

The Astros do have a 3-2 ATS advantage through the first five games.

If you disagree with my Fried philosophy and believe Houston will win to force a Game 7, there’s decent value in Astros -1.5 (+155).

ATS records:

• Regular season: Braves 78-83 | Astros 77-85
• Postseason: Braves 10-5 | Astros 9-6

Over/Under (O/U)

BET UNDER 8.5 (+100) to WIN 0.5 UNITS.

The Under is 3-1-1 in the series, including 1-0-1 in the first two games at Minute Maid Park.

While the Astros opened the postseason on an 8-1 Over run, pitching is what wins championships when all is said and done.

O/U records:

• Regular season: Braves 74-78-9 | Astros 86-69-7
• Postseason: Braves 6-8-1 | Astros 9-5-1

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

JOHNNY’S RECORD	W-L	SP	ROI
SINCE JULY 8	75-52	31-18	+20.345
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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The Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros play Game 2 of the best-of-seven World Series Wednesday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:09 p.m. ET (on FOX). Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Braves took Tuesday’s opener 6-2 but lost starting RHP Charlie Morton to a fractured fibula. They won as slight underdogs (+113) with the Under (8.5) hitting by a hook.

Atlanta jumped out to a 2-0 lead as DH Jorge Soler led off with a solo homer on the third pitch, and 3B Austin Riley added an RBI double in the top of the first inning. They increased the lead to 5-0 on CF-RF Adam Duvall’s 2-run homer in the third.

As for Morton, he took a hard grounder off his lower right leg in the second inning. He would retire 3 more Astros batters (2 in the second and 1 in the third), before exiting with what was diagnosed as a season-ending injury.

Atlanta’s bullpen responded as four relievers scattered 7 hits and allowed just 2 runs over the final 6 2/3 innings to complete the victory.

As for Game 2, Braves LHP Max Fried (14-7, 3.04 ERA regular season) will make his fourth start of this postseason. This will be the first time the southpaw faces the Astros in his five-year career.

• 2021 postseason: 1-1, 3.78 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 19 H, 2 BB, 17 K in three starts
• Career postseason: 1-2, 3.86 ERA (46 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 47 K in 15 games (7 starts)

Astros RHP Jose Urquidy (8-3, 3.62 ERA regular season) makes his second start of the postseason. The three-year veteran will face the Braves for the first time in his career.

• Last outing: Loss, 1 2/3 IP, 5 ER (6 unearned), 5 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 12-3 ALCS Game 3 rout by Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park Oct. 18
• Career postseason: 1-2, 4.28 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 25 K in nine games (5 starts)

Braves at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Braves -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Astros -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+155) | Astros +1.5 (-190)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Prediction

Braves 6, Astros 2

Money line (ML)

ATLANTA (-105) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. We won with the Braves Tuesday. Let’s do it again!

Fried is coming off one of his worst outings of 2021. He yielded 5 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks in 4 2/3 innings at the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLCS Thursday, an 11-2 Braves loss.

Before that, he delivered a 1.50 ERA in his first two postseason starts, allowing just 2 runs in 12 innings and striking out 14.

In his final 11 regular-season starts, starting Aug. 3, Fried went 7-0 with a 1.46 ERA (74 IP, 12 ER) and 2 complete games, while holding opponents to a .183 batting average as the Braves went 10-1 SU (straight up).

Expect that Fried to show up for Wednesday’s Game 2.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

If you want a little insurance, I could see divvying up part of the ML wager or treading lightly with BRAVES -1.5 (+155).

After all, the Braves are 9-2 ATS this postseason, including 5-1 on the road. Counting the regular season, they are 55-32 ATS on the road.

ATS records:

• Regular season: Braves 78-83 | Astros 77-85

Over/Under (O/U)

BACK UNDER 8.5 (-108) to WIN 0.2 UNITS.

We won on the Under Tuesday. Let’s do this again, too!

O/U records:

• Regular season: Braves 74-78-9 | Astros 86-69-7
• Postseason: Braves 5-6 | Astros 8-3

Before Fried’s rough outing in Game 5 of the NLCS vs. the Dodgers – who were facing elimination – his last 5 road starts all cashed Under tickets.

The Under is 11-5 in his 16 road starts this year, including 8-2 in his last 10.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

JOHNNY’S RECORD	W-L	SP	ROI
SINCE JULY 8	73-44	29-16	+23.461
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

Follow @JohnnyParlay11 on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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The Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros open the World Series Tuesday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:09 p.m. ET (on FOX). Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Braves last won the World Series in 1995. Their last appearance was in 1999 when they were swept by the New York Yankees 4-0.

The Astros last won the World Series in 2017, beating the Los Angeles Dodgers in seven games. They returned in 2019 but lost in seven games to the Washington Nationals.

It seems odd, especially for two clubs that were once NL West Division rivals, but Atlanta and Houston have not faced each other since 2017. Houston swept that season series 4-0.

But back to the present …

The Braves will start RHP Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34 ERA regular season) in Tuesday’s opener. Morton has pitched for five teams during a 14-year career, including for the 2017 World Series champion Astros in the first of his two seasons with Houston. As a matter of fact, he was the winning pitcher in the deciding Game 7 of the 2017 World Series, working the final four innings in relief against the Dodgers.

• 2021 postseason: 0-1, 3.77 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 10 H, 8 BB, 19 K in three starts
• Career World Series: 1-1, 4.30 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 12 H, 2 BB, 17 K in two starts and one relief appearance
• Lost his one start in 2020 World Series for Tampa Bay Rays when they lost to Dodgers in six games
• Career vs. Astros (regular season): 4-6, 6.28 ERA (57 1/3 IP, 40 ER), 1.67 WHIP in 11 starts, last facing them in 2019

Astros LHP Framber Valdez (11-6, 3.14 ERA regular season) makes his fourth start of the postseason and his first career World Series appearance. The southpaw has seven playoff games under his belt – all during the last two seasons. He was phenomenal in a Game 5 victory in this year’s ALCS, handcuffing the Boston Red Sox with 8 innings of 1-run, 3-hit ball.

• 2021 postseason: 1-0, 4.20 ERA (15 IP, 7 ER), 16 H, 5 BB, 13 K in three starts
• Career postseason: 4-1, 2.77 ERA (39 IP, 12 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 39 K in six starts and one relief outing
• Career vs. Braves: 0 appearances

Braves at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Braves +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Astros -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-180) | Astros -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Astros 4, Braves 3

Money line (ML)

This is a tough one, but the value is with ATLANTA (+110).

Houston is 55-31 at Minute Maid Park this year, including 4-1 in the playoffs. However, Atlanta tied for MLB’s fifth-best regular-season road record at 46-35.

While the Astros’ Valdez was lights out in his last start, the Braves’ Morton is postseason experienced, appearing in 16 games. He also has a penchant for pitching well in critical games.

As mentioned, he was the 2017 World Series Game 7 winning pitcher for the Astros. Three years later with the Rays, he beat the Astros twice in the 2020 ALCS, including in the clinching Game 7 behind 5 2/3 shutout innings.

At +110, Morton and the BRAVES are the play.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BACK ATLANTA +1.5 (-180) to WIN 0.5 UNITS.

The Braves are 8-2 ATS this postseason. Overall, they’re 54-32 ATS on the road this year, including 4-1 in the postseason.

The Astros are 6-4 ATS this postseason but 41-45 ATS at home, including 3-2 in the postseason.

Regular-season ATS records:

• Braves: 78-83 | Astros: 77-85

Over/Under (O/U)

BACK UNDER 8.5 (-122) to WIN 0.2 UNITS.

It’s never easy betting Unders, but look for the offense to take a backseat to pitching in the opener.

Sure, Houston pounded the Overs in the first two rounds, and the Over is 48-37-1 at Minute Maid Park this year, but runs will be at a premium in Game 1.

O/U records:

• Regular season: Braves 74-78-9 | Astros 86-69-7
• Postseason: Braves 5-5 | Astros 8-2

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

JOHNNY’S RECORD	W-L	SP	ROI
SINCE JULY 8	70-44	29-16	+21.611
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

Follow @JohnnyParlay11 on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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