The 11 riskiest free agents in the 2020 league year
The 11 riskiest free agents in the 2020 league year
Sports blog information from USA TODAY.
The 11 riskiest free agents in the 2020 league year
The Seattle Seahawks should consider targeting Redskins guard Brandon Scherff should he become available as a free agent this offseason.
Free agency and the start of the new league year are just one week away and NFL teams around the league are busy analyzing potential targets to add to their rosters.
Mark Schofield of USA TODAY’s Touchdown Wire recently took a look at all 32 clubs and proposed one player each team should target.
If available, Schofield believes the Seahawks should consider Redskins guard Brandon Scherff.
“While left tackle seems to be locked down, with the presence of Duane Brown, the Seahawks could use a boost along the rest of the offensive line,” Schofield begins. “That is where Schreff potentially comes in. He and Thuney are the premier free agent guards available this free agency period, and Scherff could step in and immediately bolster the interior of the Seattle OL.”
New on @TheNFLWire: Our @MarkSchofield has a mega-burger of an article in which he designates one upcoming free agent every NFL team should target. https://t.co/HX0EUABKVD
— Doug Farrar (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 10, 2020
“He does come with some injury questions, as he missed eight games in 2018 with a torn pectoral muscle and he missed five games in 2019 with elbow and shoulder injuries,” Schofield notes, however.
There is no question quarterback Russell Wilson could use more protection, and while most pundits are focused on shoring up Seattle’s defensive line, beefing up on Wilson’s guys upfront should also be a top priority for the Seahawks this offseason.
[lawrence-related id=57276]
Every acquisition carries risk. Who are some free agent options that require a bit more due diligence from teams before free agency begins?
Caveat emptor, quia ignorare non debuit quod jus alienum emit.
Caveat emptor has become a proverb in the English language what stands for the proposition of “let the buyer beware.” However, it is a short form gleamed from that entire phrase above, which translated states as follows: Let a purchaser beware, for he ought not to be ignorant of the nature of the property which he is buying from another party.”
Not to put my lawyer hat on for too long, but caveat emptor used to be the standard basis of contract law, and is still generally in effect absent a legally binding warranty, or fraud on the part of the seller. Absent those factors, the it is up to the buyer to make sure that they are getting what they paid for.
That principle can certainly be used when discussing NFL free agency. In a few days 32 football organizations are going to dive into the open market and put millions and millions of dollars into the hands of players who – potentially – could help deliver a Super Bowl title. Yet, with these moves comes a certain level of risk with each transaction, and given the money involved, some teams may overpay for players when better value is to be found elsewhere.
Consider the NFL’s model franchise: The New England Patriots. Every year Bill Belichick avoids the primary free agency market, and looks to add players in the secondary or tertiary part of free agency, seeking players that fit what the Patriots do schematically rather than overpaying for players that not be the perfect piece in the machine. Of course, there are exceptions, such as Stephon Gilmore, but for every transaction like that there are others which initially fall under the radar, but end up playing a huge role in New England. Players such as Mike Vrabel, David Patten, Rob Nikovich, and Rodney Harrison.
With that in mind, let’s look at a handful of players who might command big deals over the next week or so, but teams looking to sign them should keep those words in mind: caveat emptor.
The veteran quarterback is largely considered to be one of the top free agents available this off-season, not just at the quarterback position but league-wide. But taking a chance on Rivers does not come without a good share of risks, and any team that brings him into the fold needs to be clear about where he currently is as a quarterback.
Two seasons ago Rivers led the Chargers to the playoffs, and he was playing perhaps some of his best football over the past few years of his career. Two areas that really stood out with him during the 2018-2019 season were his deep passing numbers as well as his ability to handle and respond to pressure. According to charting data from Pro Football Focus, Rivers had an Adjusted Completion Percentage (ACP) of 71.6%, which was fifth-best in the league. Only Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, Marcus Mariota and Matt Ryan fared better in that statistic.
Additionally, Rivers posted the eighth-best ACP of 46.3% on downfield throws (defined as 20 yards or more) in the league. On those throws Rivers also put up an NFL passer rating of 90.7.
Unfortunately, Rivers took a step in both of those categories last season. When pressured, Rivers saw his ACP drop to 65.3%, which was just tenth-best in the league. He threw nine touchdowns and nine interceptions when he was under duress. The deep passing game? That number dropped as well, as he put up an ACP of 41.8% and threw five touchdowns – against nine interceptions – when throwing downfield.
Something that might allow teams to talk themselves into Rivers is what he did when he was kept clean, and this speaks to why buyers need to beware when signing him. Throwing from a clean pocket last year Rivers had an ACP of 81.1%, which was seventh-best in the league. Only Cousins, Brees, Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson, Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Darnold fared better. Rivers also threw for eight touchdowns, without an interception, when not pressured.
So the organization that signs Rivers will want to make sure they have an offensive line that will keep him clean and put him in position to replicate those numbers from 2019. That requires looking beyond just the quarterback position, and evaluating the entirety of the offense around him. For some teams this will still make sense, but organizations thinking about bringing him in need to have a clear head – and pocket – when considering such a move.
With free agency upon us, the season of hope looms in the NFL. Who is a critical target in free agency for each NFL franchise?
With free agency upon us, the season of hope looms in the NFL. Who is a critical target in free agency for each NFL franchise?
Hope is a powerful emotion.
One of the reasons that the National Football League manages to dominate the sports conversation year-round is how it packages and sells hope to its fans. Through free agency, the draft, and then schedule releases, the league manages to build up a strong sentiment of hope in virtually every single fan base as the crescendo builds to the start of a new season.
When free agency kicks off in just under a week, 32 fan bases will start to believe that their team is putting together a winning roster, and that this year will finally be the year.
Of course, we know it does not always work out that way. There are many teams that have “won the off-season” but such victories do not always translate into Super Bowl banners.
But with free agency nearly upon us, let hope live on.
Here is a free agency acquisition for each of the 32 NFL teams to strongly target next week. Given how team needs overlap, there are a few names listed twice. Scheme fit and salary cap considerations play a critical role in these selections (looking at you Pittsburgh and Minnesota). They are grouped by division, and in alphabetical order. Additionally, these are all additions. Many teams have in-house needs that need to be addressed first, and for the most part those are discussed in the team’s write-up.
The Buffalo Bills took a big step forward in Josh Allen’s second season as a quarterback in the National Football League. While Allen still has room to grow as a quarterback, acquisitions such as Cole Beasley and John Brown helped Allen become a better timing- and rhythm-based passer.
One area where Allen could stand to improve is in the deep passing game. Among qualified passers last season, Allen ranked 23rd (out of 24) in Pro Football Focus’ adjusted completion percentage on downfield throws (defined as throws of 20 yards or more downfield). While the vertical passing game was a strength of Allen’s coming out of the University of Wyoming, that aspect of Buffalo’s offense was lacking last year.
Beasley and Brown were solid acquisitions for the Bills, but adding Anderson would give the Buffalo offense a huge jolt, specifically in the downfield passing game. Anderson has been a dangerous vertical threat for the New York Jets the past few seasons, and according to PFF’s grading he has the 15th best grade in the NFL on throws of 20 yards or more downfield since 2016. In addition, last year he was targeted six times on throws of 20 yards or more over the middle, and he caught four of those passes, three of which went for touchdowns.
Adding Anderson would give Allen a vertical option downfield, while creating space for Beasley, Brown and emerging tight end Dawson Knox room to operate in the intermediate passing game. Plus, it would wrestle a valuable commodity away from a division rival.
The Miami Dolphins have three first round selections in the 2020 NFL Draft, and a number of needs they can address. Offensive line, every level of the defense and of course quarterback are positions most commonly linked with the Dolphins with those three early-round selections.
Adding Van Noy in free agency would enable the Dolphins to address a position other than EDGE/OLB with one of those selections. Players like K’Lavon Chaisson from LSU and Zack Baun are familiar names associated with Miami, but Van Noy would give head coach Brian Flores an experienced linebacker who can function both as a pass rusher off the edge or as an outside linebacker in space.
Van Noy seemed to be a potential bust after being selected in the second round by the Detroit Lions in the 2014 draft. Van Noy was then acquired by the New England Patriots via a trade, in which the Patriots acquired the linebacker and a seventh round pick in exchange for just a sixth round selection. But during the past few years in New England, Van Noy has settled into a hybrid role in the Patriots’ defense much more suited for his abilities. On any given down you can see him rushing the passer off the edge, dropping into coverage in space, or even aligning on the inside and letting players like Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower attack the pocket on the outside.
Flores has seen up close and personally what Van Noy can bring to a defense, and how he can be best utilized in the NFL. Acquiring a player with his trait set will allow Miami to address other positions of need early in the draft
Obviously the Patriots are one of those aforementioned teams that have some decisions to make about their own free agents before looking outward. Van Noy, as previously discussed, is a free agent who plays a critical role on their defense. Other defensive free agents include Collins and free safety Devin McCourty, as well as left guard Joe Thuney.
And of course there is that Tom Brady guy.
Regardless of how the organization deals with those decisions, tight end remains a massive hole for this team. The decision by Rob Gronkowski to retire last season late in free agency left the franchise behind the eight ball when it came to acquiring a veteran player before the draft. A year ago the Patriots tried to sign Jared Cook during free agency, but according to Mike Reiss of ESPN the uncertain status of Gronkowski had Cook look elsewhere. Then during the draft, the Patriots passed on picking a tight end despite the general consensus that the 2019 tight end class was a very strong group.
Instead, New England tried to piece the position together on the secondary free agency market, with players like Benjamin Watson and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, as well as relying on younger players already on the roster like Ryan Izzo and Matt LaCosse. That experiment failed, and the tight ends in New England failed to come anywhere close to the production the team lost with Gronkowski’s retirement.
This year, the picture looks much different. The rookie tight end class has some questions, and that makes Henry a very enticing option. The Chargers tight end has struggled with injuries, but when healthy he is a very impressive option in the passing game, and he can also contribute as a blocker which is something the Patriots value at the position. Adding Henry and then drafting a tight end later in the draft would put New England in position to finally restock their tight end room.
Last off-season the New York Jets were active in free agency by making two big splash signings: Linebacker C.J. Mosley and running back Le’Veon Bell. While those acquisitions made headlines, they failed to translate into wins on the field. The Jets started the season with four-straight losses (hampered in large part by illness sidelining quarterback Sam Darnold) and they were 1-7 at the midway point of their season.
But they finished strong, winning six of their final eight games, and that has brought a bit of hope back to Gang Green. But they still have holes to address on both sides of the football. They need to add some help up front on the offensive line – and many expect that the Jets will draft one of the “big four” offensive tackles with the 11th overall selection – and they could use some help at cornerback on the defensive side of the football.
Additionally, they could use help at the wide receiver spot. Bringing Robby Anderson back would make sense, but even then they could use some help. Especially if Anderson leaves town, however, a player with Cooper’s skill-set would make a great deal of sense for the Jets. If you look at the growth the Cowboys saw in Dak Prescott after acquiring Cooper, you will see what a WR with the ability to consistently get separation can mean for a quarterback. Cooper has been a well-rounded route runner since his time at Alabama, and his ability to get separation will give Darnold some big windows to attack in the passing game, boosting not only his play but the level of execution for the entire Jets’ offense.