Bills vs. Colts: 7 things to watch for and a prediction

Things to watch for and a prediction ahead of the Buffalo Bills and Indianapolis Colts in NFL Wild Card action.

The Buffalo Bills are poised to win their first playoff game under the watch of head coach Sean McDermott in this weekend’s Wild Card matchup against the Indianapolis Colts.

The favorite, yes, but the No. 2-seeded Bills (13-3) will not have a walk in the park. The Colts (11-5) might have just snuck into the postseason… but they earned their double-digit wins like everyone else.

With that, here are seven things to watch for and a prediction ahead of the Bills-Colts Wild Card meeting:

Regardless of who, Colts are loose ahead of facing Bills

What the Indianapolis Colts had to say about facing the Buffalo Bills over Wild Card weekend.

What are the Indianapolis Colts planning to do at Bills Stadium on Saturday? Simple. Play Colts football.

The Colts enter the weekend as the first-ever No. 7 seed in the NFL’s postseason history since the league’s decision to expand the playoffs in 2020. Yes, they know the Bills (13-3) are good, even mentioning Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen as an MVP candidate.

Still, that’s not what these guys are worrying about this week. Word out of Indy has simply been one that Bills coach Sean McDermott would respect. They’re just going to control what they can control.

“The pressure is not on us. We should be loose, aggressive and freed up to play our best game of the year. No one is going to give us a chance,” Colts head coach and former Bills QB Frank Reich said.

Echoing the familiar face to Buffalo was linebacker Darius Leonard. He’s the lone Pro Bowler for the Colts this year and like Allen, earned a big honor on Thursday. Leonard was named the AFC’s Defensive Player of the Month.

“It’s always no pressure,” Leonard said via video conference. “Like coach said, when you’re the seven seed, everyone expects you to fail. That’s the mindset.”

Leonard is even using any “pressure” and turning it into motivation.

“I looked at something today, it was pretty crazy that everybody said the Bills was going to win, everybody is counting up out. We can just go in there and be us, nothing more, nothing less, be us,” Leonard added. “Pressure? Nah. We don’t have any pressure on us. We’re very relaxed.”

Above Reich and Leonard, there’s one guy on the Colts’ roster that stands out the most and perhaps has the most to lose on Saturday. A 16-year vet, quarterback Philip Rivers hasn’t won the big one in his career. It’s not even clear if he’ll be back with the Colts in 2021 just yet. Him winning a championship, potentially, is a legacy thing now.

All things considered, pressure is not a word that even Rivers would use.

“We don’t have to do anything different now,” Rivers said via The Herald Bulletin. “It’s not like, ‘Now we made it to the postseason, so let’s really prepare hard and let’s really put in our best stuff and let’s really try our hardest to do things right.’ If that were to be true, then we’d been cheating each other for 16 games.

“We do have to make some plays, obviously, but you don’t have to do anything unbelievable. Just go play sound football, complementary football together, and we believe if we do that, then it will be enough.”

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What Sean McDermott said about Kenny Stills’ status vs. Colts

Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott on WR Kenny Stills.

The Buffalo Bills added a new player to the mix prior to facing the Indianapolis Colts earlier this week.

On Monday, the Bills officially signed wide receiver Kenny Stills to a contract. It was a move reportedly in the works, but due to the NFL’s COVID-19 protocols, it took a bit longer than usual. Nonetheless, he’s here.

Stills only signed to the team’s practice squad, but the NFL changed the rules in regard to the league’s practice squad recently. That adjustment allows teams to call players up from the taxi squad without limitations that were previously in place.

While the Bills wouldn’t officially call anyone up just yet for their upcoming game, Buffalo did protect Stills on their practice squad. That’s potentially a move in the right direction.

Still, what’s up with Stills? Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott touched on that via video conference this week. Not one to show his cards, McDermott did not yet commit to the newest member of the Bills (13-3) playing against the Colts (11-5) on Wild Card weekend.

“We’ll see… We’re just getting started with Kenny now in the mix. We’ll just see what he’s able to digest. I know he’s a good player, and see how we can integrate him into what we’re doing here.” McDermott said.

At this point it’s really unknown if Stills will get in the lineup. Asking this question a week ago, the answer would be a closer feeling to a yes. But without wideout Cole Beasley in the lineup in Buffalo’s season finale against the Miami Dolphins, Isaiah McKenzie more than stepped up.

McDermott was praiseful of the work McKenzie did as well.

“It’s good to get John (Brown) back and I thought he did some really good things, Gabe (Davis) showed up, obviously Isaiah. That’s what you got to do when other guys go down, guys have to step up,” McDermott said.

Perhaps the Bills would actually wait bringing in Stills due to McKenzie’s three-touchdown breakout? At minimum, Stills could still be active on game day just as a backup to him. One could expect that to happen, at least.

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Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction, AFC Wild Card Preview

Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts prediction, AFC Wild Card preview.

Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts prediction, AFC Wild Card preview.


Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts Broadcast

Date: Saturday, January 9
Game Time: 1:05 ET
Venue: Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Network: CBS

[jwplayer yr9D6zDr]

All of the CFN Fearless Predictions

(2) Buffalo Bills (13-3) vs (7) Indianapolis Colts (11-5) Game Preview

For latest lines and to bet on the NFL, go to BetMGM


Why Indianapolis Colts Will Win

The Colts had one lousy half over the last five games that cost them a win. This isn’t your normal seven-seed, especially in this new playoff format with so many teams getting in.

The lines are good enough to more than hold up on both sides of the ball, Philip Rivers is a veteran passer who won’t have any sort of a problem in a big moment like this, and the defense continues to be fantastic. It hasn’t allowed more than 90 rushing yards in any of the last five games or in six of the last seven.

This is a tight team that’s not going to give up enough turnovers to matter, leading the NFL with the fewest fumbles lost – sort of stunning considering putting the ball on the ground was a huge issue for Jonathan Taylor at Wisconsin – and with just three giveaways over the last five games.

How do you beat Buffalo? You run, you run, and you run well. The Bills gave up over 200 rushing yards twice – losing both games – and were hit by Tennessee for 139.

Indianapolis has rushed for over 200 yards in two of the last four games with the ground attack rolling over the second half of the season.

CFN Experts Picks: NFL Wild Card Weekend

Why Buffalo Bills Will Win

Is anyone playing better going into the 2021 NFL Playoffs?

The Bills aren’t just playing very, very well, but they’re having way too much fun and are way too loose – they’re playing like a confident group that knows they can win in just about any way.

The running backs might not be crushing it, but helped by Josh Allen, the ground attack has been consistently great. Allen has gone off for over 340 yards in four of the last five games, and in the one game it didn’t get there, the defense stepped up with one of its best performances of the season in a win over Pittsburgh.

The takeaways are there on a regular basis from the aggressive D that makes teams pay for pressing, and the offense continues to improve with a league-high in first downs and third down conversion showing off the explosion and versatility to keep things moving.

For all of the great things this Colt team does, the secondary gives up too many yards, allowing over 300 in four of the last give games. This is Allen’s moment, and the MVP candidate needs to come through, but …

What’s Going To Happen

This is a strong, tough, experienced Colt team that’s not expected to win. The pressure is all on Buffalo at home to be amazing, the pressure is all on Allen to carry the entire Bills Mafia nation, and the pressure is on as the 2-seed to make a deep run in these playoffs and end up playing the Chiefs with a shot at ending up in Tampa.

And then comes the big interception … of a Phil Rivers pass.

This will likely go one of two ways. Either Buffalo – who’s one Kyler Murray Hail Mary away from being on a ten-game-winning streak – gets up 14-0 right away and this becomes one big, cathartic party in Bills Stadium, or the Colts are able to grind this down and make this a fight.

Expect the latter with the running game working and the Indianapolis defense playing well enough to keep Allen and company from getting into any sort of a groove, and then the Bill D will come through.

Rivers will throw a big pick, the Bill offense will score four plays later, and all of Orchard Park will breathe a sigh of relief.

Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction, Line

Buffalo 27, Indianapolis 23
Bet on Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts with BetMGM
Buffalo -6.5, o/u: 51
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2

Must See Rating: 5

5: One Night in Miami
1: Call Me Kat

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Bills activate RB TJ Yeldon from Reserve/COVID-19 list

RB TJ Yeldon activated from Reserve/COVID-19 list.

The Buffalo Bills activated running back TJ Yeldon from the Reserve/COVID-19 list. The team announced the move on Wednesday.

Yeldon, a backup running back for the Bills (13-3) this season, only has 10 carries and 70 rushing yards in 2020 in three games played. He has not suited up since Week 5 and is viewed as the third-stringer behind both Zack Moss and Devin Singletary.

On Dec. 27, Yeldon was placed on the team’s COVID designation for his positive test result for coronavirus. The following day, three other players, including wide receiver John Brown, were also placed on the designation via contact tracing, not for positive tests themselves.

That caused Brown to miss Buffalo’s Week 16 game vs. the Patriots. Brown did play in their season finale against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

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9 storylines to watch for during Bills vs. Colts

Buffalo Bills, Indidanpolis Colts storylines to watch ahead of Wild Card weekend.

It’s Wednesday, so the Buffalo Bills are now turning their attention to their next opponent. After rounding out the regular season against the Miami Dolphins with a third-straight huge win, 56-26, Buffalo (13-3) will now host the Indianapolis Colts (11-5) for a Wild Card matchup at Bills Stadium.

As we now look to the weekend ahead, here are nine storylines to follow at the postseason approaches:

Turns out Gov. Andrew Cuomo won’t attend Bills game

New York State Govronor Andrew Cuomo will not attend Buffalo Bills playoff game vs. Indianapolis Colts on Saturday in Wild Card.

After New York State and the NFL came to an agreement on how to get a limited number of fans into the Buffalo Bills’ venue this weekend in Orchard Park when the team hosts the Indianapolis Colts, we quickly knew who the first fan at the game would be: Governor Andrew Cuomo himself.

When Cuomo announced the agreement in place, he said that he planned to get tested for COVID-19 and attend the game.

On Wednesday, he said his plans have changed.

Per Cuomo during his COVID-19 briefing, he has now backed out of visiting Bills Stadium this weekend. The Governor said that he has to rewrite the State of the State due to the Georgia runoffs.

But the ticket is at least going to a good home. Cuomo said the plan is to give away his ticket to the game to one lucky frontline worker from Eric County Medical Center.

While a solid gesture from Cuomo to give the ticket to a nurse from ECMC, maybe this had something to do with it: More than 40,000 Bills fans signed a petition on Change.org recently.

It was titled: “Ban Andrew Cuomo from Buffalo Bills Stadium playoff games.”

Regardless, no Cuomo.

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Anatomy of a wild-card win: Why “Mills” will be Philip Rivers’ plan against the Bills

When the Indianapolis Colts take on the Buffalo Bills, one route combination might be critical for quarterback Philip Rivers.

Call it what you want. Call it “Mills,” call it “Post/dig,” or call it “Pin.” But that route combination is going to be featured in the Indianapolis Colts’ game plan Saturday when they look to knock off the Buffalo Bills in the first game of Super Wild-Card Weekend.

While much of the attention is going to be focused on the matchup between Matt Eberflus, the defensive coordinator of the Colts, and quarterback Josh Allen, there are more matchups to study for this game. Another such matchup is between quarterback Philip Rivers and the Bills defense, led by DC Leslie Frazier.

Down the stretch the Buffalo defense seemed to round into form, matching some of the expectations for that unit dating back to the summer. While the Bills offense was scoring points in bunches, the defense was putting the clamps down on a few different offenses, some of whom are in the playoffs (looking at you Pittsburgh).

But if you are head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni and trying to craft a game plan to attack this defense, a place to start is by identifying when the Bills have given up big plays in the passing game this season, and to try and find some common elements. In charting the Bills’ defensive snaps this season, they have given up 32 passing plays with a gain of 20 yards or more, with a throw ten yards or more downfield. A small sample size to be sure, but something to work with.

Any common elements? The bulk of those came with the Bills running either Cover-3 (nine such plays) or Cover-4 (nine such plays). Next was Cover-1 (seven) and Cover-2 (four).

So what you might want to do is to make sure you have some plays installed to attack those coverages. But what if there is a play that can stress either coverage? That would be ideal, right? As you would give Rivers a chance to hit on a big throw downfield regardless of whether the Bills were in Cover 3 or Cover 4.

That is where “Pin” comes in.

This route concept, which pairs a dig route with a post route over the top of it, is crafted to attack either Cover 3 or Cover 4. When attacking Cover 3, this route design stresses the safety in the middle of the field by “high-lowing” that player. If the safety stays deep to help on the post, you can throw the dig route in front of him. If that player drives down on the dig, you can throw the post over his head.

That is exactly what Rivers did on this play against the Steelers, who are in Cover 3 on the play:

Pittsburgh brings pressure on this play but they play Cover 3 behind the blitz. The safety in the middle of the field sees the dig and drives on it, perhaps influenced by Rivers’ movement in the pocket. The QB sees that and throws the deep shot over his head, hitting the post route for the touchdown.

When it comes to attacking Cover 4, this concept is perhaps the ideal route design to implement. This coverage, often referred to as “Quarters,” keeps a defensive back deep with the field divided into four parts. Teams have different rules for how a defender playing that deep quarter of the field relates to the nearest receiver, but generally speaking if a receiver gets into your area of the field past a depth of ten yards, that is going to be your man.

Offenses can exploit that, and “Pin” is the ideal combination of routes to do so. Cornerbacks will play with outside leverage, giving the receivers the middle of the field because there is expected safety help. So offenses will attack that by sending the outside receiver on a post, and then eliminating that safety help by having an inside receiver run a dig. The safety has to respect that dig route and drive on it, and now you have a post route working against a CB playing with outside leverage, and no safety help to the inside.

A prime example of this came last week when Ryan Tannehill hit A.J. Brown late on a post route to set up Tennessee’s game-winning field goal. Watch as the cornerback fights to stay to the outside, the safety reacts to the dig and Brown’s post route works away from the outside-leveraged defender:

Now Rivers and the Titans have hit on this route concept against Cover 4 this season, but that was often do to coverage busts in the secondary more than the concept itself. That was the case on this play against the Raiders:

With the flexibility to attack both Cover 3 and Cover 4 – coverages where the Bills have given up some big plays this season – this would be an ideal part of the game plan for Rivers and the Colts on Saturday.

LOOK: Bills begin COVID-19 testing for fans at stadium

Buffalo Bills COVID-19 testing outside stadium prior to Wild Card matchup with the Indianapolis Colts.

The Buffalo Bills will let just over six thousand of their closest friends into their venue on Saturday. As the team hosts their first home playoff game since 1996 against the Indianapolis Colts (11-5), the Bills (13-3) will have their first fans of the season allowed into Bills Stadium.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, the NFL, and the other powers at be came to a compromise to allow fans into the game amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Considering coronavirus is a very real deal still, testing protocols are mandated for anyone to enter. All fans must be tested prior to entering the game, and those are now underway.

Fans have to do a drive-thru test at Bills Stadium via vehicle at some point 2-3 days prior to the game. Some images of that activity have come about on social media.

Here’s a couple of them showing the setup outside Bills Stadium:

For more general information on Saturday’s game, visit the link below:

Ticket, COVID test details for Bills’ upcoming 2020 playoff game

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Who the Bills protected on their practice squad for Wild Card round

Buffalo Bills protected practice squad for Wild Card round vs. Indianapolis Colts.

The Bills announced their Wild Card week players the team has placed on the protected portion of their practice squad via the NFL’s transaction wire on Tuesday ahead of their game with the Indianapolis Colts (11-5).

For the past few weeks, the Bills have made one spot on their practice squad interchangeable while the other three remained the same. That was the case once again this week, however, it’s pretty obviously why that new player was selected this week. Recent free agent signee in wide receiver Kenny Stills replaces undrafted rookie offensive lineman Trey Adams in that spot.

The full group of four including the three that remained are:

  • OL Jordan Devey
  • OL Jonotthan Harrison
  • WR Kenny Stills
  • LB Darron Lee

As mentioned, Stills was recently signed by the Bills and was probably coveted by other teams. With the new NFL rules that allow teams to recall players from their practice squad in the postseason as much as they want, other teams can still attempt to sign them. That hasn’t changed.

Because of that, protecting Stills makes more sense than anyone else that was previously being protected. Stills also likely has a chance to be used in Buffalo’s Wild Card round against the Colts.

For more info on the PS protections, check out our previous explanation on the “protected” practice squad situation, a new addition to the NFL this season, from our Week 1 coverage here:

Due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic in the United States, the NFL’s owners and players came to an offseason agreement that we’ve seen the first installment of on Tuesday evening. Each team in the league can “protect” four players on their practice squad each week.

The idea is to provide some extra depth for teams in case of a COVID-19 outbreak in a locker room late in the week prior to a Sunday or Monday game. Those four can be called up to the active roster up until Sunday morning prior to kickoff every week.

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