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AFC Championship: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs odds, picks and prediction

Previewing the AFC Championship between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs, with betting odds, lines, picks, tips and predictions.

The Buffalo Bills (15-3) and Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) lock horns in the AFC Championship Game Sunday. Kickoff is at 6:40 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium. Below, we preview the Bills-Chiefs odds and lines and make our NFL picks and predictions.

Bills at Chiefs: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Bills +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Chiefs -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Bills +3 (-105) | Chiefs -3 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 53.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Bills at Chiefs: Game notes

  • The Bills posted an emphatic 17-3 win over the Baltimore Ravens last week. It sets up a rematch of Week 6, a game the Chiefs won 26-17 in Buffalo as the Under (55) comfortably connected.
  • The Chiefs hung on for a 22-17 win over the Cleveland Browns in the AFC Divisional Round, as backup QB Chad Henne led the team to a late, crucial first down to get the Chiefs over the hump.
  • All eyes will be on QB Patrick Mahomes, as he progresses through the league’s concussion protocol. Mahomes has been taking all the reps in practice. All signs point to him being ready.
  • Kansas City ranked 16th in the regular season in total yards allowed per game at 358.3, and they were 14th in the NFL with 236.2 passing yards allowed per contest. The Chiefs ranked 21st against the run, allowing 122.1 yards per game on the ground. That’s not Buffalo’s strong suit, as the Bills ranked 20th in offensive rushing yards per game (107.7).
  • The Bills covered the spread in their final eight regular-season games, and they split the covers in each of their two playoff games.

Bills at Chiefs: Key injuries

Bills

  • WR Cole Beasley (knee) questionable
  • DT Vernon Butler (quadriceps) questionable
  • WR Gabriel Davis (ankle) questionable
  • WR Stefon Diggs (oblique) questionable

Chiefs

  • RB Le’Veon Bell (knee) questionable
  • CB Bashaud Breeland (concussion, shoulder) questionable
  • RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle, hip) questionable
  • CB Rashad Fenton (foot) questionable
  • LB Willie Gay (ankle) questionable
  • QB Patrick Mahomes (concussion, toe) questionable
  • WR Sammy Watkins (calf) questionable

Bills at Chiefs: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Bills 30, Chiefs 27

Money line (?)

The BILLS (+145) are a good bet on the money line, as they’re playing exceptional football lately. Buffalo has rattled off eight straight wins, and 11 of its last 12.

Some in Bills Mafia would argue it should be 12 in a row, still angered by a crazy Hail Mary play in Arizona in Week 10 which resulted in a 32-30 loss.

Against the spread (?)

BILLS +3 (-105) is the play here. Yes, K.C. beat Buffalo by nine earlier this season, but the Bills are 9-1 ATS across their past 10 games.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are just 1-8 ATS over their previous nine games, with each of their past eight straight-up wins all one-score games, including three by 3 or fewer points.

Over/Under (?)

The OVER 53.5 (-110) is the play in this AFC title game. Buffalo’s offense was high octane in the regular season, posting 396.4 total yards and 31.3 PPG, ranking second in the NFL in both categories. K.C. averaged 415.8 total yards and 303.4 passing yards per game to rank atop the NFL, while being rather middling on defense.

This has the potential to be a shootout.

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AFC Championship Game: Kansas City Chiefs home favorites vs. Buffalo Bills

The Kansas City Chiefs are the betting favorites in their AFC Championship home game against the Buffalo Bills.

The top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) host the Buffalo Bills (14-3) in the AFC Championship Game Sunday at 6:40 p.m. ET. Below, we take a look at the early Bills-Chiefs betting odds and lines at BetMGM Sportsbook.

The Bills, the AFC’s No. 2 seed, ended a 26-year drought in reaching their first AFC title game since the 1993-94 season. They advanced behind a 17-3 victory over the visiting Baltimore Ravens as 2.5-point favorites Saturday. With Baltimore facing third-and-goal at the Bills’ 9-yard line late in the third quarter and looking to tie things up, Buffalo CB Taron Johnson intercepted a Lamar Jackson pass and returned it 101 yards for a touchdown and an eventual 17-3 lead. The Bills defense kept the Ravens out of the end zone and limited the NFL’s top running offense to 150 yards – Baltimore entered averaging a league-best 191.9 rushing yards per game. The victory was the eighth in a row for the Bills, who covered the spread for the ninth time in their last 10 games. They didn’t cover as 7-point home favorites in a 27-24 Divisional Round win vs. the Indianapolis Colts after running off 8 consecutive covers.

The Chiefs will play in their third consecutive AFC title game. The defending Super Bowl champions punched their ticket with a 22-17 home win vs. the Cleveland Browns Sunday but failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites. The big news was QB Patrick Mahomes exiting with a concussion in the third quarter and Kansas City ahead 19-10. Backup Chad Henne entered, completed 6 of 8 passes for 66 yards with one interception and helped the Chiefs hold off the Browns for the W. The 11-year veteran inserted himself into Chiefs lore with back-to-back plays right after the 2-minute warning. He scrambled for a 13-yard gain on a third-and-14 play and followed with a 5-yard pass to WR Tyreek Hill on head coach Andy Reid’s gutsy fourth-and-1 call at the KC 48-yard line. That allowed the Chiefs to run out the clock. Mahomes, who threw for 255 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions and added a rushing TD, will likely be OK by next week, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

Kansas City and Buffalo have met twice before in the AFC Championship. The Bills won 30-13 in 1994 and the Chiefs claimed a 31-7 victory in 1967. Buffalo is 2-1 all-time vs. Kansas City in the postseason – the Bills were the home team in all three games.

They faced off once this season with Kansas City winning at Buffalo 26-17 in Week 6 as a 5.5-point favorite – the game finished well Under the O/U of 55. The Chiefs are 4-1 vs. the Bills in their last five meetings, dating back to Nov. 3, 2013.

Bills at Chiefs: Betting odds, spread and line

Odds via BetMGM; last updated Monday at 1:40 p.m. ET. 

  • Money line: Bills +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Chiefs -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Bet now
  • Against the spread/ATS: Bills +3, -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Chiefs -3, +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Bet now
  • Total: 54.5, Over -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Under -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Bet now

Betting stats:

  • ATS: Bills 12-6 (11-5 regular season, 1-1 playoffs) | Chiefs 7-10 (7-9, 0-1)
  • O/U: Bills 11-6-1 (10-5-1, 1-1) | Chiefs 8-9 (8-8, 0-1)

New to NFL betting?

At +130 odds, the Bills have an implied 43.48% chance of winning or 13/10 fractional odds. Buffalo needs to win outright, or lose by fewer than 3 points for a Bills +3 (-120) ATS ticket to cash. A 3-point loss is a push and you get your money back.

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At -155 odds, the Chiefs have an implied 60.78% chance of winning, or 20/31 fractional odds. Kansas City needs to win by at least 4 points for a Chiefs -3 (+100) ticket to cash.

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