The world is in an unprecedented situation with the COVID-19 pandemic. All aspects of normal life have been altered because of the adherence to social distancing.
On-site training at NFL facilities is suspended until further notice, which means all 32 teams’ offseason programs are at risk of not happening at all.
The lack of spring practices hurts rookies the most, which is why Houston Texans coach and general manager Bill O’Brien believes 2020 will favor veterans more than rookies.
“In my opinion — again, it’s just my opinion — but I think that this year with the unique position that we’re in, I truly believe that this is a veteran type of year,” O’Brien told the Houston media on a conference call on April 16. “I think it’s going to be really difficult for rookies without offseason practicing on the field and being able to do all the things that you do during that five-week stretch after the draft and then training camp.”
The four-time AFC South champion coach isn’t trying to predict when the offseason program, and even training camp, will be activated. But he is of the mindset rookies won’t be up to speed, and veterans will be the key to helping teams win when the 2020 season kicks off.
“I think this year being different than any other year is that’s part of our building of the team also,” said O’Brien.
Legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, who represented eight No. 1 overall picks in the NFL draft, doesn’t believe the 2020 NFL Draft will be any riskier than other years. Steinberg laid it all out in a guest column at Touchdown Wire, but his summary says it all.
In 2020, teams have massive informational resources. They have reports from their in-house scouts, attendance at games, game film, all-star games, combine analytics and one-on-one interviews. They have Zoom interviews, and in cases like Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, a filmed pro scouting day. They also have reports from security firms that have researched players’ off-field behavior since grade school. They have more than enough data to make intelligent choices in this year’s draft.
In 2011, a lockout curtailed the entire NFL offseason program until training camp. Pro Bowlers were selected in nine of the first 11 picks. An eventual league MVP was taken with the No. 1 overall pick in quarterback Cam Newton, a Super Bowl MVP the very next pick in OLB Von Miller, and the Texans took a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year in J.J. Watt with the 11th overall pick.
If O’Brien’s hunch is wrong about 2020, then the Texans will have missed on a chance to replenish their talent reserves and inadvertently narrowed the aperture of the winning window in the Deshaun Watson era.