Did the Dolphins’ quarterback plans for Week 13 just get leaked?
The Miami Dolphins have been quite direct about their ongoing quarterback situation — if Tua Tagovailoa is healthy enough to play, he will remain the team’s starting quarterback despite a strong performance from veteran signal caller Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 12 against the Jets. But Tagovailoa’s health was the missing link for this week in the build up to the Dolphins’ latest showdown against the Cincinnati Bengals — the rookie quarterback was a limited participant all week, just as he was ahead of the Jets game before the Dolphins elected not to dress him.
And when Miami Dolphins head coach Brian Flores was asked about the looming decision at quarterback on Friday, he was especially amused to inform the South Florida media that the team would be making the decision about who will play as soon as he finished talking with the media — meaning that everyone would have to wait until Sunday to discover the answer.
Flores’ poking of the media wasn’t to fuel any non-existent quarterback competition, but rather it was likely rooted in every competitive advantage Miami could gather over the Bengals ahead of Sunday’s game. Preparing for two quarterbacks is more difficult than preparing for one, so leaving both options on the table despite Miami slamming the door shut on any speculation of returning to Fitzpatrick full-time is an understandable move.
The cat may be out of the bag. Tagovailoa’s agent, Leigh Steinberg, posted on Facebook that he was flying to Miami to watch “Tua play the Bengals” before editing the post to indicate that he was flying to watch the Dolphins. Whoops.
Tua Tagovailoa agent on Facebook first says he’s attending Sunday game to watch QB play vs. Bengals then edits to say he’s coming to watch Dolphins. 😆🤔
We’ll see if the post was simply a poor choice of wording or rather an indicator of the Dolphins’ plans. And if it is indeed a leak of the Dolphins’ personnel decision, it will be the second time this season that Miami’s quarterback decision-making has been leaked prematurely, which may cause some frustration from the Dolphins coaching staff and front office.
The Dolphins and Bengals kick off tomorrow at 1PM EST from Hard Rock Stadium.
The original superagent breaks down the layers of the NFL’s rookie salary scale and how it impacts teams’ salary caps.
[Editor’s note: Sports agent Leigh Steinberg is writing a series of guest columns for Touchdown Wire examining pro football topics from his perspective of expertise after more than four decades in and around the game.]
The one somewhat normal NFL process amid COVID-19 is the negotiation of contracts for rookies who were drafted in April.
A rookie must have signed a contract in order to show up and participate in training camp. Rookies can attend a minicamp or organized team activities without a contract, but they are not allowed to be part of training camp while still negotiating with their team.
Rookies who are late to training camp are labeled as holdouts, a pejorative term that makes them sound like greedy militants. In reality, they are more like freezeouts who have been prevented from reporting. Prior to the 2011 collective bargaining agreement, large numbers of first-round draft picks were late to training camp. Amid labor unrest in 1987, rookies such as Cornelius Bennett and Rod Woodson didn’t sign until after the strike, reporting in November.
The 2011 CBA tightened the rookie salary cap regulations and virtually eliminated rookie holdouts. The scope of negotiability was narrowed. Here’s how it works. The NFL Players Association and NFL Management Council negotiate a revenue split between owners and players. Gross designated revenue includes television and radio rights fees, gate, and a portion of off-field marketing and sponsorships. The CBA grants owners 53% of the monies, while players get 47%.
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Readers who venture forward will be granted an honorary Doctorate of Capology. The goal is to have you understand the cap, which is supposed to create parity between teams, so that one team cannot pay its players more than another and create an advantage.
The NFL salary cap is determined based on the league’s gross revenue. All drafted rookies must fit under the rookie salary cap, which is a smaller figure under the overall cap. What determines a player’s cap number? The signing bonus is spread out, or amortized, over the number of contracted years. Drafted rookies sign four-year contracts. With first-round rookies, teams have the right to extend a player for a fifth year. If the signing bonus is $10 million, that means that $2.5 million is counted against the cap for each of the four years. The minimum rookie salary for the 2020 season is $610,000. All of the salary in a cap year is counted against the cap.
So, by adding the amortized bonus to the salary, we arrive at a player’s cap number. The $2.5 million plus $610,000 creates a cap number of $3.11 million. With me so far?
The salary cap figure is a different concept from the cash flow of a contract. In our example, assuming that all of the $10 million bonus is paid in 2020, as well as the salary, the player will receive $10,610,000 during the upcoming season.
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Incentives are largely nonexistent in rookie contracts today, because the reward counts immediately against the cap — even if the bonus threshold is never achieved and paid. The total cap number of all drafted rookies must add up to the salary cap number for rookies overall.
Creativity and structural advantages can still come into rookie cap negotiations in a variety of ways. Payment of the signing bonus is one area of negotiability. Teams want to spread payments out over several years to retain use of cash. Owners also prefer to make bonus payments at times when revenue comes to them.
Players would rather have the fastest payout. My business partner, Chris Cabott, has been aggressive in trying to create timely payouts for clients. The tax rate in the state where a player resides may be lower than the one where he plays his home games. California has a maximum state tax rate of 13.3% while states such as Texas, Washington, Florida and Nevada have no state income tax. Bonuses paid in the current year to a resident of a state without income tax do not have state tax taken from them. Bonus money paid in the following years would be taxed if the team plays in a state with income tax.
Money paid as salary is subject to a variety of fines and discipline. The part of a contract which takes part of the salary and pays it as a reporting or roster bonus is not subject to a fine or discipline. Another issue, one that dramatically played out in Chargers defensive end Joey Bosa’s 2016 contract negotiations, is offset language. Some first-round contracts are totally guaranteed for skill and injury over the first four years. If a player with a guaranteed contract is cut in his fourth year, for example, the team is still obligated to pay the salary to him. What teams often propose is language that would deduct money the player receives in the same year from another team from the total the original team is obligated to pay. They assert that such a player is being paid twice for the same service, and the issue has been settled in a variety of ways.
The biggest benefit from a restrictive salary cap to players is that it forces teams to move to their maximum allowable offer much more quickly and largely eliminates players being late to camp. For rookies to be successful, they need every day of learning and practice possible.
Leigh Steinberg pioneered the agent industry on his way to becoming the preeminent agent in the sports world. With an unrivaled history of record-setting contracts, Leigh has secured more than $3 billion for 300-plus pro athlete clients and directed more than $750 million to various charities around the world. He has represented the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft an unprecedented eight times. He also has represented 10 Hall of Famers — Warren Moon, Troy Aikman, Steve Young, Derrick Thomas, Bruce Smith, Thurman Thomas, Kevin Greene, Kenny Easley, Howie Long and Edgerrin James — 62 first-round draft picks and over 150 Pro Bowl clients. In Leigh’s current practice, he partners with Chris Cabott to represent Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Jones, Jayon Brown and many other rising stars.
NFL superagent Leigh Steinberg examines the factors that will shape the 2020 NFL season and how the league must evolve in the new normal.
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[Editor’s note: Sports agent Leigh Steinberg is writing a series of guest columns for Touchdown Wire examining pro football topics from his perspective of expertise after more than four decades in and around the game.]
The record television ratings for the 2020 NFL Draft illustrate the great hunger that exists for the return of NFL football. The draft dominated the sports news cycle for weeks and captured great audience numbers. I believe that all NFL stakeholders, starting with the league office, individual NFL teams and broadcast partners, will seize an opportunity to be thought leaders in how America brings back live sports over the next four months.
From the Super Bowl, to the scouting combine, to the draft and the forthcoming announcement of next season’s schedule, the NFL has done a great job of creating sports content. Now, the NFL has time on its side compared to the NBA, NHL and MLB with the start of the regular season more than four months away.
So how does the NFL conduct a season facing and unprecedented health emergency caused by the coronavirus? Scouting for the draft was limited, with no in-person contact between teams and draftees allowed after mid-March. Ordinarily, the NFL calendar soon would feature rookie minicamps and veteran minicamps, followed by OTAs at team facilities. Those instead will be supplanted by virtual OTAs. This takes away the great advantage that contemporary rookies and franchises typically have to spend weeks together building chemistry. By working together in person with coaches and other players and mastering the playbook, this normally helps players to show up for training camp in July with an enhanced level of familiarity and advancement in the offseason program.
How the NFL handles this challenge will have massive implications beyond the practical questions. The NFL is by far the most popular sport in America, as well as the most popular televised form of entertainment. It looms large over American culture. So every detail of how this season rolls out will be heavily scrutinized and symbolic for the rest of the sports landscape.
The foremost consideration will be protecting the health and safety of team personnel, players and fans. Unfortunately, no one can accurately predict what the state of the coronavirus crisis will be in late July, when training camps ordinarily open.
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What could a 2020 NFL season look like? Players already live in quarantine-type settings for the first few weeks of training camp. They could report to camp and be tested to see if they have or previously had the virus. Those who are deemed healthy could have their temperatures checked daily and be closely monitored to maintain the overall health of the players, coaches and staff. A player who tests positive or becomes sick could be quarantined until he is fully recovered.
The season still could have a normal start date. We will find out more when the schedule is released, which is expected to happen later this week. Players report to the facility every day for practice, and testing could take place there as well. Whatever the NFL decides will be handled collectively, with all 32 teams following the same safety practices.
If games are played on time, the next question is who can attend. Playing games with no fans present is an option. In that case, pregame and postgame festivities, game coverage, fantasy football and merchandise purchases all could be sustained. The existing television contracts with the networks would be honored. National television provides roughly $200 million per franchise for the season and is the largest form of revenue. The broadcasts would have the same graphics, production values and announcers with or without fans, although the lack of crowd noise and fan shots would have to be creatively addressed by the league’s broadcast partners.
Kansas City Chiefs fans surely would love to visit Arrowhead Stadium this season to watch the Super Bowl champions, but they might not get the opportunity. (Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports)
If there were no gate ticket receipts, it would signal an immense revenue hit for franchises. Owners probably would approach the NFLPA seeking some kind of relief from the obligations to pay players at the same contractually mandated figures. Given the fact that a new collective bargaining agreement was finished unexpectedly earlier this offseason, without the heavy posturing and acrimony that past negotiations have engendered, perhaps that same spirit could yield a deal quickly.
Games played without fans would create an eerie atmosphere in stadiums. Players are used to feeding off the energy of fans, especially at home, and no one really knows how this would alter competitive balance and performance. Synergistic interplay between fans and players would be missing. Maybe there are ways for teams to feature some of their most loyal fans on the broadcast, as they did during the draft. Creativity and ingenuity will be welcomed if it brings back sports and camaraderie.
From a competitive standpoint, the lack of crowd noise certainly would make life easier on an offense trying to overcome a difficult third-down conversion on the road. It would be interesting to see if the resulting number of offside penalties would be reflected in the stat sheet.
Now, what if there were a regulated amount of fans at these games? Perhaps spectators could be spread out in seat locations that maintain social distancing. This might mean that stadiums would sell only a fraction of their usual seating capacity, using scientific input to determine a safe number.
Fans could have their temperatures checked as they entered the stadium. More antibacterial soap dispensers could be installed, disinfectant wipes and plastic gloves could be made available. There could be a requirement for fans to wear masks. For the most part, Americans across the country have complied beautifully with state mandates and requests to stay home — so I’m sure they will comply with practices that allow them to safely attend their favorite sporting events.
Could concessions and memorabilia be sold? Stadium staff could place six-foot distance markings on the ground for concessionaires and perhaps open fewer stands, allowing fans to maneuver through concourses with more space.
Could stadiums accommodate full crowds safely in 2020? That depends on the progress that is made in containment between now and then. It is a safer for government officials and media alarmists to take a position that completely eliminates risk.
This football season should be played as normally as possible for the sake of athletes with short playing careers, thousands of jobs provided by the industry, and the enjoyment of fans across the country. Creative thinking can be combined with prudence for the benefit of all involved.
Leigh Steinberg pioneered the agent industry on his way to becoming the preeminent agent in the sports world. With an unrivaled history of record-setting contracts, Leigh has secured more than $3 billion for 300-plus pro athlete clients and directed more than $750 million to various charities around the world. He has represented the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft an unprecedented eight times. He also has represented 10 Hall of Famers — Warren Moon, Troy Aikman, Steve Young, Derrick Thomas, Bruce Smith, Thurman Thomas, Kevin Greene, Kenny Easley, Howie Long and Edgerrin James — 62 first-round draft picks and over 150 Pro Bowl clients. In Leigh’s current practice, he partners with Chris Cabott to represent Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Jones, Jayon Brown and many other rising stars.
Houston Texans coach and general manager Bill O’Brien believes 2020 will be a “veteran type of year.” Is that type of thinking faulty?
The world is in an unprecedented situation with the COVID-19 pandemic. All aspects of normal life have been altered because of the adherence to social distancing.
On-site training at NFL facilities is suspended until further notice, which means all 32 teams’ offseason programs are at risk of not happening at all.
The lack of spring practices hurts rookies the most, which is why Houston Texans coach and general manager Bill O’Brien believes 2020 will favor veterans more than rookies.
“In my opinion — again, it’s just my opinion — but I think that this year with the unique position that we’re in, I truly believe that this is a veteran type of year,” O’Brien told the Houston media on a conference call on April 16. “I think it’s going to be really difficult for rookies without offseason practicing on the field and being able to do all the things that you do during that five-week stretch after the draft and then training camp.”
The four-time AFC South champion coach isn’t trying to predict when the offseason program, and even training camp, will be activated. But he is of the mindset rookies won’t be up to speed, and veterans will be the key to helping teams win when the 2020 season kicks off.
“I think this year being different than any other year is that’s part of our building of the team also,” said O’Brien.
Legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, who represented eight No. 1 overall picks in the NFL draft, doesn’t believe the 2020 NFL Draft will be any riskier than other years. Steinberg laid it all out in a guest column at Touchdown Wire, but his summary says it all.
In 2020, teams have massive informational resources. They have reports from their in-house scouts, attendance at games, game film, all-star games, combine analytics and one-on-one interviews. They have Zoom interviews, and in cases like Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, a filmed pro scouting day. They also have reports from security firms that have researched players’ off-field behavior since grade school. They have more than enough data to make intelligent choices in this year’s draft.
In 2011, a lockout curtailed the entire NFL offseason program until training camp. Pro Bowlers were selected in nine of the first 11 picks. An eventual league MVP was taken with the No. 1 overall pick in quarterback Cam Newton, a Super Bowl MVP the very next pick in OLB Von Miller, and the Texans took a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year in J.J. Watt with the 11th overall pick.
If O’Brien’s hunch is wrong about 2020, then the Texans will have missed on a chance to replenish their talent reserves and inadvertently narrowed the aperture of the winning window in the Deshaun Watson era.
The original NFL superagent explains why he believes a shorter evaluation period caused by the coronavirus won’t harm teams in this year’s draft.
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[Editor’s note: Sports agent Leigh Steinberg is writing a series of guest columns for Touchdown Wire examining pro football topics from his perspective of expertise after more than four decades in and around the game.]
There has been much collective agonizing and hang wringing about whether the 2020 NFL Draft results will be productive given the cessation of in-person scouting midway through the process.
Pro scouting days on college campuses, individual visits with players, combine physical rechecks and visits by players to franchises all were eliminated by Commissioner Roger Goodell as he responded to the coronavirus crisis by issuing a stay-at-home order for team personnel. This will be my 46th NFL draft representing players, and I predict that the passage of five years will show the players drafted this year and their contributions to teams will be more dynamic than players taken in the past.
When I began representing NFL players in 1975 with QB Steve Bartkowski, who was picked No. 1 overall by the Atlanta Falcons, the draft was held in January. Teams relied on their scouts’ reports, game film and the performance of players in all-star games, and then they went ahead and drafted. There was no scouting combine until 1982 when the first one was held in Tampa, Florida, in a greatly abbreviated form. There were no pro scouting days held on college campuses. There were no player visits to team facilities.
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A comparison of the career success of first-round picks in 1975 to first-round picks in 2005 draft shows that the 1975 pre-draft evaluations produced more successful careers – even though the evaluation process was extended in later years.
Why was this?
Best predictor of future success is past success
Studying how players actually perform using game film is the most reliable way to gauge the likelihood that a player will have a successful pro career. This is the best way to see how a player performs in game conditions. For a franchise quarterback, the real test is how he performs under adversity. When the quarterback has thrown a couple interceptions — the crowd is starting to boo, and the game is getting out of hand — what does that player do? Can he compartmentalize, adopt a quiet mind, shake off past miscues and elevate his level of play to lift a team to victory. When Patrick Mahomes did this in the playoffs and Super Bowl this year, it was a reflection of what could be seen from his college game film – not his pro day performance.
The Eagles drafted Boston College’s Mike Mamula with the No. 7 overall pick in 1995 after he dazzled at the scouting combine with a 4.58-second 40-yard dash and a 38.5-inch vertical jump. He would play five NFL seasons, without a Pro Bowl selection. (Rick Stewart / Getty Images)
Overreliance on measurables, testing
The scouting combine tests players in a 40-yard dash, vertical leap, broad jump, bench press and lateral three-cone drill. When a wide receiver or defensive back runs a 4.3 40, he often vaults into the first round. What is not measured is how well the receiver runs routes and catches the ball. The 40 time also does not measure work ethic or performance in the clutch. The most famous workout warrior was Philadelphia Eagles defensive end Mike Mamula, who dominated the combine and was the No. 7 overall pick in 1995. He had a notably abbreviated career.
In 2003, we represented Lance Briggs, a linebacker from the University of Arizona. He was a sensational college player, but he didn’t post dynamic numbers at the combine and was drafted in the third round. He was an immediate success with the Chicago Bears and would be named to seven Pro Bowls during his career. He had 103 solo tackles during his second year with the Bears and 113 in his fourth.
Packers running back Aaron Jones was a steal as a fifth-round selection, as his 40-yard dash time belied the ability he showed on game film. (Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports)
In 2017, UTEP running back Aaron Jones ran a 4.56 in the 40 at the combine and was drafted by Green Bay in the fifth round. In his third year, he gained 1,000 yards and tied for the league lead in touchdowns. UCLA linebacker Jayon Brown followed the same pattern and also was drafted in the fifth round in 2017. He made an immediate impact with the Titans and had 108 combined tackles last year. By focusing on combine standouts, teams overlooked the real talent that can only be found on the game tape by players such as Alvin Kamara (third round, 2017), Hunter Renfrow (fifth round, 2019) and many others.
Paralysis by overanalysis
The most visible actions that front offices take are their selection of draft picks. They are scrutinized by their owners and other teams, and the track record can impact career viability. Fans and media also are vocal critics. Bill Polian was a gifted talent evaluator who made draft selections that turned three franchises — Buffalo, Carolina and Indianapolis — into winners. His services were in great demand. I would venture to guess that his process was focused on basic elements such as game film, background research and character assessment. Although the current evaluation tools are helpful in theory, we don’t have any proof that they actually are making organizations or individuals better talent evaluators. There is an abundance of information and so much public scrutiny in this process that it can cause executives to agonize, second-guess themselves and make mistakes.
Below are charts of the first-round selections in the 2005 and 1975 drafts, contrasting the era of April drafts to a time when the event was held in January, with a much shorter evaluation period. Career starts, via pro-football-reference, are included as a rough indicator of future productivity.
2005 NFL Draft
Team
Player
Pos.
Starts
1. 49ers
Alex Smith
QB
161
2. Dolphins
Ronnie Brown
RB
74
3. Browns
Braylon Edwards
WR
93
4. Bears
Cedric Benson
RB
71
5. Bucs
Carnell Williams
RB
58
6. Titans
Adam Jones
CB
104
7. Vikings
Troy Williamson
WR
24
8. Cardinals
Antrel Rolle
S
146
9. Redskins
Carlos Rogers
CB
123
10. Lions
Mike Williams
WR
30
11. Cowboys
DeMarcus Ware
OLB
173
12. Chargers
Shawne Merriman
OLB
59
13. Saints
Jamaal Brown
OT
84
14. Panthers
Thomas Davis
OLB
174
15. Chiefs
Derrick Johnson
OLB
170
16. Texans
Travis Johnson
DT
38
17. Bengals
David Pollack
LB
6
18. Vikings
Erasmus James
DE
12
19. Rams
Alex Barron
OT
75
20. Cowboys
Marcus Spears
DE
90
21. Jaguars
Matt Jones
WR
15
22. Ravens
Mark Clayton
WR
65
23. Raiders
Fabian Washington
CB
58
24. Packers
Aaron Rodgers
QB
174
25. Redskins
Jason Campbell
QB
79
26. Seahawks
Chris Spencer
C
95
27. Falcons
Roddy White
WR
149
28. Chargers
Luis Castillo
DT
79
29. Colts
Marlin Jackson
DB
32
30. Steelers
Heath Miller
TE
167
31. Eagles
Mike Patterson
DT
108
32. Patriots
Logan Mankins
OG
161
Notes: How did Aaron Rodgers fall to No. 24, when he was widely considered a candidate to be picked No. 1 overall. Many teams were unwilling to take a chance on him in the first round. Do they really trust the best player available adage or not? The Packers already had Brett Favre and only took Rodgers because he was by far and away the best player left on the board, regardless of positional need.
Overall, this was a solid group of first-round picks. The problem with the 2005 draft was that most of the best picks came outside of the top 10.
1975 NFL Draft
Team
Player
Pos.
Starts
1. Falcons
Steve Bartkowski
QB
127
2. Cowboys
Randy White
DT
165
3. Colts
Ken Huff
OG
104
4. Bears
Walter Payton
RB
184
5. Browns
Mack Mitchell
DE
44
6. Oilers
Robert Brazile
LB
147
7. Saints
Larry Burton
WR
25
8. Chargers
Gary Johnson
DT
123
9. Rams
Mike Fanning
DT
50
10. 49ers
Jimmy Webb
DT
74
11. Rams
Dennis Harrah
OT
144
12. Saints
Kurt Schumacher
OT
20
13. Lions
Lynn Boden
OG
47
14. Bengals
Glenn Cameron
LB
103
15. Oilers
Don Hardeman
RB
29
16. Patriots
Russ Francis
TE
148
17. Broncos
Louis Wright
CB
165
18. Cowboys
Thomas Henderson
LB
38
19. Bills
Tom Ruud
LB
5
20. Rams
Doug France
OT
87
21. Cardinals
Tim Gray
S
49
22. Chargers
Mike Williams
CB
101
23. Dolphins
Darryl Carlton
OT
36
24. Raiders
Neal Colzie
CB
51
25. Vikings
Mark Mullaney
DE
97
26. Steelers
Dave Brown
CB
203
Notes: Even without all of the bells and whistles of today’s scouting process, teams managed a better success rate on first round-selections than in 2005. More than half of the 26 picks had great careers, and many of them played a decade-plus in the NFL. Three of the top six picks — Randy White, Walter Payton and Robert Brazile — would become Hall of Famers.
In 2020, teams have massive informational resources. They have reports from their in-house scouts, attendance at games, game film, all-star games, combine analytics and one-on-one interviews. They have Zoom interviews, and in cases like Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, a filmed pro scouting day. They also have reports from security firms that have researched players’ off-field behavior since grade school. They have more than enough data to make intelligent choices in this year’s draft.
Leigh Steinberg pioneered the agent industry on his way to becoming the preeminent agent in the sports world. With an unrivaled history of record-setting contracts, Leigh has secured more than $3 billion for 300-plus pro athlete clients and directed more than $750 million to various charities around the world. He has represented the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft an unprecedented eight times. He also has represented 10 Hall of Famers — Warren Moon, Troy Aikman, Steve Young, Derrick Thomas, Bruce Smith, Thurman Thomas, Kevin Greene, Kenny Easley, Howie Long and Edgerrin James — 62 first-round draft picks and over 150 Pro Bowl clients. In Leigh’s current practice, he partners with Chris Cabott to represent Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Jones, Jayon Brown and many other rising stars.
Prominent sports agent Leigh Steinberg explains the factors that led Tom Brady to leave New England and start anew in Tampa Bay.
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[Editor’s note: Sports agent Leigh Steinberg will write a series of guest columns for Touchdown Wire examining pro football topics from his perspective of expertise after more than four decades in and around the game.]
When quarterback Tom Brady recently announced that he was leaving the New England Patriots and signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it led to shock and surprise in the football world. Most observers and fans thought he was inextricably intertwined with the Patriots, and his free agency would inevitably lead to his re-signing with them. With Brady at the helm, the Patriots dominated the NFL — winning 249 games and going to more Super Bowls than any team in history. So why would he make that decision?
In general, quarterbacks look for stability and continuity throughout their careers. Familiarity with a coach, a system and surrounding players leads to more productivity. Teams with franchise quarterbacks tend to extend their contracts well before there is a threat of free agency. A dynamic quarterback is rarely available on the open market in this quarterback-centric era.
The shock of Brady leaving needs to be leavened with some historical perspective. Many of the most talented NFL quarterbacks have finished their long and storied careers in different settings. Iconic Baltimore Colts QB Johnny Unitas left after years and then played for San Diego. Jets QB Joe Namath left New York and finished with the Los Angeles Rams. Falcons QB Steve Bartkowski left for the Rams. San Francisco QB Joe Montana left a storied 49ers tenure after four Super Bowl victories and finished in Kansas City. Peyton Manning is best known as a Colt, but he also won a Super Bowl with the Denver Broncos.
One of the motivations for Brady was to add to his legacy by taking another team to the Super Bowl. Likewise, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick might want to show his coaching greatness by taking home the Lombardi Trophy in a post-Brady era. Having represented more than 100 NFL quarterbacks, I can attest to the fact that players start to think about legacy and history later in their careers.
Steve Young was in the twilight of an illustrious career with the 49ers when he suffered a concussion, his fourth in three years, in Week 3 of the 1999 season. He missed the remainder of the year and never received medical clearance from the team. When San Francisco decided to move forward with Jeff Garcia as its starting QB the following season, Young was forced to make a tough decision.
Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan wanted Young to be his QB in Denver, and Steve was tempted to join him. Young had won Super Bowl XXIX with Shanahan as his offensive coordinator, and the two were close friends. It was a difficult decision-making process for Steve. We talked about the pros and cons. Ultimately, he felt he had achieved enough and wanted to end his career with the team he had led to a championship. He had a law degree and numerous job options, and he was at peace.
Troy Aikman faced a similar decision in 2002. Just two years removed from a storied playing career in which he led the Dallas Cowboys to three Super Bowl victories, Aikman already had ascended to Fox’s top NFL broadcast team. But after Dolphins QB Jay Fiedler suffered a thumb injury in Week 6, Miami offensive coordinator Norv Turner — who had served as Aikman’s offensive coordinator in Dallas for three seasons — called with an offer. Troy had financial security, a great family and a prestigious second career, but he still agonized over the opportunity. He firmly believed he could still play. We discussed it. In the end, Troy decided it was necessary to put the same passion and commitment into his broadcast career that he had put in football.
Steve Young and Troy Aikman, pictured after a 1997 game in San Francisco, wrestled with difficult career decisions similar to the one which led Tom Brady to sign with Tampa Bay. (AP Photo/Sam Morris)
It is difficult for players to walk off into the sunset, even when they have achieved amazing feats on the field, have financial security and a second career waiting. They are born competitors who thrive on the camaraderie of the locker room. Brady is no exception. Although he will turn 43 in August, he has made it clear that he wants to play until age 45.
Brady has had the same excellent attorney/agent, Don Yee, for his entire career. They clearly went through a thorough analysis of Brady’s options. When I take a client through free agency, the first step is to have the player do an internal analysis of his values and priorities. How important, and in what order, does he rank goals such as short-term financial gain, long-term financial security, family considerations, geographical location, profile and recognition, endorsement, spiritual values and making a positive difference in the world? Then we look at the football considerations: starting, winning, quality of coaching, offensive system, quality of teammates, facilities and training staff.
Over the course of his 20-year career, Brady has earned more money than he could ever spend. He is married to a supermodel who has exceeded his wealth. Money, therefore, probably wasn’t a primary factor in his decision-making process. Conversely, determining where he had the best chance to win and be well coached was crucial. No doubt, Brady made a thorough analysis of the Patriots’ roster strength and compared it to the other franchises interested in him. Brady would be acutely aware of what the Patriots’ needs were. He had one star receiver in Julian Edelman, who continued to make plays even when defenses knew the ball was coming to him, but New England has little depth at that position. The loss of tight end Rob Gronkowski had a debilitating effect on his offense last season.
The opportunity to work with star wide receiver Mike Evans is just one reason that led Brady to sign with the Buccaneers. (Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images)
Tampa Bay offered a strong offensive line. The Buccaneers have a Pro Bowl wide receiver with great size in Mike Evans. They have a talented young tight end in O.J. Howard and an emerging running back in Ronald Jones. Bucs head coach Bruce Arians is a great offensive mind and a motivator with a reputation as a player’s coach. He almost certainly would’ve been part of a critical presentation as to how and why they would win with Brady at the helm. Whatever the Bucs pitched spoke loudly to Brady’s key priority. There had to be positive motivation expressed strongly to the Brady team.
We don’t know the level of tension or conflict, if any, within the Patriots’ hierarchy of Brady, Belichick and owner Robert Kraft. However, it is clear that Brady matched his priorities with what Tampa Bay offered and made a rational decision he is happy with. The rest will be history.
Leigh Steinberg pioneered the agent industry on his way to becoming the preeminent agent in the sports world. With an unrivaled history of record-setting contracts, Leigh has secured more than $3 billion for 300-plus pro athlete clients and directed more than $750 million to various charities around the world. He has represented the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft an unprecedented eight times. He also has represented 10 Hall of Famers — Warren Moon, Troy Aikman, Steve Young, Derrick Thomas, Bruce Smith, Thurman Thomas, Kevin Greene, Kenny Easley, Howie Long and Edgerrin James — 62 first-round draft picks and over 150 Pro Bowl clients. In Leigh’s current practice, he partners with Chris Cabott to represent Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Jones, Jayon Brown and many other rising stars.
