Tag: Big 12 football predictions

Texas Football: Record scenarios for the first six games

We look at how we feel about Texas if they start as well as 6-0 and as poorly as 3-3.

The first four games are crucial to the success of the 2023 Texas football team. We noted that the worst nightmare for the team is a completely possible 2-2 start.

We are ruling out losses to Rice and Wyoming although those would certainly be catastrophic. Nevertheless, a 2-2 start would effectively slam the door on feeling good about the team moving forward.

The schedule after the first four games isn’t exactly easy. Texas will face Kansas, Kansas State, and Texas Tech at home with brutal road games against TCU and Iowa State and a neutral site matchup with Oklahoma. To suggest anything other than two losses in that stretch feels incredibly optimistic.

Extending the sample size to the first six games, let’s look at a few scenarios.

Nightmare scenarios for every Big 12 football team

We look at what could derail every Big 12 team’s season in 2023.

We have arrived to fall camp for college football teams across the country. For the most part, we have a solid grasp of what each team has and much of each team’s capabilities.

While several teams enter the season with high expectations, some teams are going to suffer disappointment. For the better part of a decade, that’s been the case for the team on the Forty Acres.

The expectation for Texas is a 10-win season and a Big 12 title berth. I have the Longhorns going 10-2. For context, Texas fell one game below (8-4) of my record prediction (9-3) last season. There are multiple games that could spoil Texas’ bid for 10 wins.

The team’s first test involves facing the Alabama Crimson Tide on the road. While the Tide is a shell of its 2020 self, and that’s really inarguable, winning in Tuscaloosa will be no small task.

Let’s look at nightmare scenarios for every Big 12 team.

Beat ‘Bama: The theme of the offseason must not change for Texas

Texas can make fall camp focus simple: Beat Alabama.

It’s just over a month until football season. And with all due respect to the Rice Owls, we’re about 40 days until the Texas Longhorns’ most important game against Alabama. The Longhorns need to win it.

Texas faces the Alabama Crimson Tide not long from now. The game’s importance is not about long-term implications or about announcing that Texas is back. Even if Texas made the playoff this season it would still not necessarily be “back.” This game is about making a statement that the 2023 team is different.

It’s a winnable game. If Ewers plays four quarters last year, Texas probably wins. If Alabama doesn’t enjoy late game heroics from Bryce Young, the Longhorns probably win, too. Let’s not get into the Texas points officials took off the board last year. The team didn’t win, and the result can’t be altered. It can, and should, win the rematch.

Texas is the better football team. It has more offensive playmakers, a better offensive line and, at the present time, a better quarterback than Alabama. There is no Quinn Ewers, Ja’Tavion Sanders, Xavier Worthy, AD Mitchell or Kelvin Banks suiting up for the Tide. There certainly aren’t any players like Isaiah Neyor or Jordan Whittington manning the third and fourth receiver spots.

The star power isn’t there for the Tide, but the team should face better playing conditions. The advantage for Alabama is a home field environment that will not be for the faint of heart. It still isn’t a valid excuse for the Longhorns losing the game this season.

It isn’t as if the team lacks the motivation. Aside from the prestige of its opponent and the excitement of a prime time game, there are more personal sources of motivation for Texas

Last September, Alabama edge Dallas Turner buried Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers’ shoulder into the turf. Neither Ewers nor his offensive line got the chance to fully rebut that hit. They will get that opportunity on Sept. 9. The play should bring out each Texas player’s competitive fire.

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian has a huge game ahead, but it’s not for the future. This game is for the players on campus. A win could springboard the team to a special season. A loss squanders a monumental opportunity.

Texas shouldn’t only spend practice hours preparing for the Tide. It should spend its waking hours finding ways to beat Alabama. If it does, the team is set up to secure its biggest win since January of 2006.

Phil Steele joins On Texas Football to preview the Longhorns’ season

“Across the board I have Texas No. 1 or tied for No. 1 (in the Big 12) at every single position.”

College football analyst Phil Steele has Texas winning the Big 12. He jumped on the On Texas Football podcast to discuss his reasoning. According to Steele, it all comes down to talent.

Steele has the Texas offense making a significant leap in the upcoming season. He said the following about why he is buying the Longhorns to win the conference.

“I looked at Texas’ schedule and I said, you know, everybody’s gonna be gunning for Texas this year. I don’t want to pick Texas No. 1. I’ll be flat out honest with you. And they play, of the top six teams in the Big 12, they are the only one that plays each of the other five. The Big 12 schedule maker didn’t do them any favors. But it comes down to talent.

Steele then went into roster specifics he likes about this team.

“You start with quarterback. Quinn Ewers comes in. I loved what I saw (against Alabama). … I don’t think he was 100% (after injury). I think he was one of the most improved players. After talking to Coach Sark, he’s highly confident. … Receiver corps is amazing. Bringing in Adonai Mitchell from Georgia to team with Whittington, Worthy, one of the best tight ends in the country in Ja’Tavion Sanders. … (The offensive line is) bigger, stronger, better. So they’re gonna be potent offensively.

Many of Steele’s talking points revolved around the same areas of strength we have been touting this offseason. An interesting nugget Steele shared involved the Texas defense. According to Steele, the unit held opponents on average 70 yards below their season average. That really pokes a hole in the notion some are asserting that the Longhorns defense isn’t all that great.

Steele spoke highly of a number of Texas defenders including Arkansas transfer Jalen Catalon. When healthy, Steele asserted, Catalon is among the nation’s best at the safety position.

Road games at Baylor, TCU and Iowa State were mentioned as tough battles for Texas. I have the Longhorns losing to TCU and Iowa State despite my 10-2 prediction for the team.

Notably, Steele’s projections have Texas scoring over 39 points per game while allowing just under 22 points per game. If his success at projecting past seasons is any indication, the Longhorns are in store for a huge season.

Texas is all confidence, no stress entering 2023 fall camp

Texas knows it can meet expectations if it puts in the work in fall camp.

There’s a different vibe in Austin. Texas doesn’t hope it wins anymore. It knows it will win if the team puts in the work. Continue reading “Texas is all confidence, no stress entering 2023 fall camp”

Heartland Sports ranks the top Big 12 quarterbacks

Quinn Ewers gets a more than fair ranking from Heartland Sports in its 2023 preseason quarterback rankings.

Heartland Sports ranked its top quarterbacks in the Big 12 on Wednesday.  It’s an excellent list. Bryan Clinton, who interestingly ranked Kansas State ahead of Texas in his post-spring rankings, has perhaps the same top nine quarterbacks I would have.

Though Clinton probably has too much confidence in Kansas State’s defense this season, he isn’t overrating Wildcats quarterback Will Howard. At his best, Howard might have been the best quarterback in the league. Albeit, he’ll face a different challenge altogether this season with defenses preparing to stop him.

Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels and Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel are easily the most proven quarterbacks on the list. You can expect solid seasons from both in 2023.

Here’s Clinton’s top five Big 12 quarterbacks for 2023.

Looking at Texas LB Jaylan Ford’s best plays 41 days from kickoff

We’re 41 days from the 2023 Texas football season. Here are some of No. 41’s best highlights.

Jaylan Ford is one of the nation’s best linebackers. The talented Texas tackler is set to duplicate a strong 2022 campaign and win Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year.

The unheralded player from Frisco (Lone Star) was the second-to-last ranked player in his 2020 recruiting class. In the last 247Sports update, Ford was the No. 68 linebacker and No. 137 player in Texas. That player evaluation was a whiff.

Ford has risen from a near unknown three-star recruit to one of the best linebackers in the country. His historic 2022 campaign saw him toward the Big 12 leaderboard in several statistical categories. Those categories include the second-highest interception total in the conference.

With the season 41 days from its start, here are some of the best plays made by No. 41.

What to learn from Texas’ final two regular season games of 2022

Texas was a different team against Kansas and Baylor to end the season.

There’s no way around it: Texas disappointed in 2022. I predicted a 9-3 finish for the Longhorns last year. Heading into the final two games, the team had a 6-4 record.

The next two games told a different story. Texas performed more like it should to close the regular season. It secured two wins over bowl teams in the final two weeks. Following a home loss to TCU, the Longhorns cruised past Kansas on the road, 55-14. The next week the team dominated the Baylor Bears in a 38-27 win that wasn’t as close as the score would indicate.

The common theme in both games starts up front. The Texas offensive line started to create holes for its running backs. Longhorns backs went off on their opponents. The team ran for 427 yards against the Kansas Jayhawks, including an 11 carry, 108-yard performance from this year’s presumed starter Jonathon Brooks.

The next week Texas running back Bijan Robinson ran for 179 yards. Signal caller Quinn Ewers complimented Robinson with a 75% completion rate. Lost in the Longhorns’ underwhelming bowl performance was a Texas team that had started to put things together offensively.

There’s still plenty to prove for this year’s squad. Ewers in particular needs to make marked progress. Nevertheless, the arrow pointed up at the end of the team’s Big 12 slate. Texas will look to recapture some of last season’s better performances in its final season in the league.

Five things the Big 12 needs to thrive without Texas and Oklahoma

We look at what the Big 12 needs to stay afloat without its two blue blood programs.

In case you missed it, the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns will not be in the Big 12 conference after this season. The two teams are bound for the SEC.

The Longhorns and Sooners have brought relevance to the Big 12 through ratings and talent acquisition. Upon their departure, other members of the conference will have to pick up the slack.

The Big 12 is set to lose several viewers without its weekly Texas and Oklahoma games. Both teams bring eyes to TVs that other league members don’t command.

Proponents of the remaining members would point to TCU’s playoff victory as proof the Big 12 gets it done on the field without elite recruiting. Unfortunately, unless the conference has another strong showing, it may not be afforded the opportunity the playoff committee gave the Horned Frogs.

Let’s look at five things the Big 12 needs to accomplish to thrive without Oklahoma and Texas.

Steve Sarkisian exudes confidence ahead of Big 12 media days

Ahead of Big 12 Media Days, Steve Sarkisian has said all the right things.

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is confident in his team ahead of Big 12 media days. It’s more than a brave face. Sarkisian has built his team his way, and he knows it.

The maligned head coach will take the mic on Wednesday before a crowd that, for the most part, believes his team is the class of the conference. Sarkisian has developed and acquired a complete roster. While it’s not on par with what Alabama was from 2012 to 2020, that dynasty is the roster construction blueprint on which this roster was built.

Texas is a complete team. Sarkisian certainly believes it. His words have consistently indicated the Longhorns have the most complete team he has been afforded at Texas. Now, it’s only a matter of whether or not he can execute the head coaching job at a high enough level. Sarkisian’s confidence in Wednesday’s session will indicate whether or not he believes he’s up to the task.