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AFC East teams besides the New England Patriots don’t typically make the playoffs. They certainly don’t usually go 10-6 or challenge New England for the division crown very often. Yet, that’s exactly what the Buffalo Bills did this season, giving the Patriots a run for their money in the AFC East and becoming just the third wild-card team from the division since 2011.
But do the Bills have a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl? According to the oddsmakers, not really.
Buffalo Bills playoff futures
NFL futures odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Friday at 12:30 pm. ET.
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BetMGM has the Bills at +6000 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February, the longest odds of any team in the playoffs. That’s the result of them having a young, inconsistent sophomore quarterback under center in Josh Allen, a tough matchup in the first round against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium, and a second-round date with either the Baltimore Ravens or Kansas City Chiefs if they were to advance to the Divisional Round.
New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the Bills to win Super Bowl LIV would return a profit of $600 should Buffalo win the Super Bowl.
Allen had a solid season. He threw 20 touchdown passes with only nine interceptions, rushing for another 510 yards and nine touchdowns, as well. However, he only completed 58.8% of his passes and his 5.71 adjusted net yards per attempt – a good measuring stick of a quarterback’s aggressiveness and success – ranked 23rd among qualified quarterbacks.
The Bills defense is what helped carry them to the postseason, ranking second in points and third in yards allowed, but how many top offenses did they truly face? The Dallas Cowboys and Ravens were the only teams that really stand out offensively from Buffalo’s schedule, though it was impressive that they were held to a combined 39 points in consecutive weeks.
The Bills aren’t exactly coming into the postseason riding high, either. They lost three of their last four games, one of which was the season finale with Matt Barkley at quarterback. There isn’t much momentum behind the Bills heading into this wild-card matchup with the Texans, especially on offense. In the last three games that Allen completed, the Bills had fewer than 300 yards of offense in each, including fewer than 200 yards passing.
Why You Shouldn’t Bet On the Bills to win Super Bowl LIV
So that begs the question again: Should you bet on the Bills to win Super Bowl LIV? In short, no. Unless the Tennessee Titans go on a deep run, Buffalo will be on the road for the entire postseason run. Winning four straight games away from home is no easy task for any team, let alone one that faced only three playoff teams in the regular season – including a Philadelphia Eagles squad that barely got in.
Save your money and put it on a team like the Ravens, San Francisco 49ers or New Orleans Saints. The Seahawks at +2500 or the Patriots at +1200 are better bets than the Bills and still come with financial upside on a small wager.
So unless you just want to lay $10 down on a Bills Cinderella story, it’d be wise to pass on this wager.
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