Tag: Behind the Numbers

The Jordan Love era for the Packers began similarly to the way many previous matchups with the Chicago Bears have gone over the last 30 years with a dominant victory for Green Bay. The Packers were able to control the game in all three phases and dominated the trenches–a recipe for a big win.

Now it’s time to go Behind the Numbers with a closer look at all of the key stats and figures that played key roles in determining the outcome of this game.

Jordan Love on third and fourth down

Jordan Love’s efficiency on third and fourth downs was a major reason that the outcome of this game ended up the way it did. As a team, the Packers went 9-for-16 on third downs for a conversation rate of 56.2 percent. For some context, Buffalo led the NFL in third down success rate in 2022, moving the chains 50.2 percent of the time. When passing on those two downs, Love was 8-for-10 for 141 yards with two touchdowns. Just an incredible performance in key situations.

“I couldn’t be more proud of just his performance, his poise,” Matt LaFleur said after the game. “There’s a big-time belief in that locker room for Jordan Love. I think the guys, they’re going to rally around him. They’re excited for him. They love him. They respect him. He comes to work every day, great attitude, great energy. I think you saw that today.”

The offense creates big passing plays without Christian Watson

Even without Christian Watson and his vertical presence on the field, the Packers were able to generate several explosive pass plays. At the end of the first half, Love found Jayden Reed for 30 yards, eventually leading to a field goal. At the start of the third quarter, on a beautifully designed screenplay that included some misdirection, Aaron Jones went for 51 yards. On the following series, Jones was matched up with a linebacker over the middle of the field on a choice route that went for 35 yards, and then later on, an initial botched snap ended with Love finding Luke Musgrave down the left sideline for 37 yards.

In 2022, before Watson’s breakout game against Dallas, the Packers offense struggled to generate big plays in the passing game. This resulted in defenses shrinking the field by playing close to the line of scrimmage, which made moving the ball through the quick game and on the ground more difficult. This year’s Packers team, however, has a lot more speed overall on offense and is better equipped to handle Watson’s absence.

The Packers control the trenches on both sides of the ball

As the old saying goes, if you control the trenches, you control the game–and the Packers very much did that.

“I think that was probably the difference in the game,” said Matt LaFleur. “Our ability to protect Jordan and then get after Justin on the other side was probably the difference.”

On offense, Love had 28 dropbacks was sacked only once, and hit just three total times, according to ESPN. He had the time he needed in the pocket to go through his progressions, he wasn’t hurried, which helped Love protect the ball, and he was able to wait for the right pass catcher to become open. On many of those third-down pass attempts referenced above, if you go back and watch, you will see Love with what feels like all the time in the world.

“The O-line as a whole,” said Love after the game, “the protection was great. There was a couple times I was able to go through my whole read and there was no one around, and I was able to kind of look around.”

Defensively, the Packers’ pass rush set up shop in the Chicago backfield. In total, Green Bay had four sacks and six quarterback hits, although both of those numbers would have been far greater had they not been going up against such a dynamic player in Justin Fields. The Packers also held up quite well against the run. Fields was able to get loose on a few plays, but that’s going to happen; however, running backs Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman averaged less than 3.5 yards per rush, and Roschon Johnson just 4.0.

The Packers win the turnover battle 2-0

Winning the turnover battle is always important – we know that – but it feels particularly crucial this season with such a young offense that, at times, is likely going to battle inexperience. Turnovers provide extra possessions and oftentimes good starting field position. Very importantly, Love was able to take care of the football, and the Green Bay defense was able to come away with a pair of takeaways.

“I think that’s big time,” said LaFleur after the game. “That’s the quarterback’s number one responsibility. We talk about it all the time: you have to take care of the football, and I thought he did that. Any time you got a quarterback that takes care of the football, you got a chance to win games.”

Anders Carlson has a perfect day

Throughout training camp and the preseason, you never quite knew what you were going to see from Anders Carlson. One day he would go 1-for-6, and the next day, 6-for-6. But in his regular-season debut, he was perfect, making all five extra points and a 52-yard field goal before half. Obviously, it’s very early in his career, but based on what we’ve seen from him, Carlson very much seems to be a gamer, meaning he performs best when it matters. Some of his best performances over the summer came during games. After the draft, Rich Bisaccia mentioned that Carlson’s big game experience and mental makeup were two qualities that the Packers really liked about him.

The offense is different when Aaron Jones is involved

The Green Bay offense looking completely different with Aaron Jones in the game isn’t a Jordan Love thing; this was the case when Aaron Rodgers was at quarterback as well. Although running the ball wasn’t easy, Jones still recorded 41 rush yards on nine carries. In the passing game, he had two explosive plays, totaling 86 yards with a touchdown. As David Bakhtiari said after the game, Jones has the ability to make a house call every time he touches the ball.

In the second quarter, which has often been when AJ Dillon handles the bulk of the workload, we didn’t see Jones get any carries, and likely not coincidentally, the offense sputtered. In part, LaFleur said that the offense was struggling to find a rhythm. We also know that it’s a long season, and the Packers are very mindful of Jones’ touches, wanting him available for the long haul.

Chase Claypool and DJ Moore combine for 25 yards

Bears receivers Chase Claypool and DJ Moore combined for two receptions for just 25 yards, and all of it came from Moore. Similarly to the end of last season, when the defense was playing its best, we saw Jaire Alexander traveling with the opponent’s top receiver – in this case, Moore – right out of the huddle.

In addition to limiting Chicago’s top pass catchers, this Green Bay defense as a whole looked very fast on the football field. They did an excellent job of swarming the ball carrier and making tackles. While the Packers’ offense dominated third downs, the Bears were just 3-for-13. They also had only one completion of 20 or more yards and only three others that went for more than 10.

“We’ve talked about it all offseason,” said LaFleur after the game, “our style of play, and you look around the league, teams that are playing winning football, are flying around to the football, and I thought our guys were playing physical, and they were flying all over the place.”

Just like that, the Green Bay Packers 2022 season came to an end following a disappointing loss at home to the Detroit Lions with a trip to the playoffs on the line. For the Packers, it was a loss that looked like many that had come before it, with many of the problems that they dealt with early on in the year still being relevant even in the later stages of the season.

“I want to make sure we cover everything with a fine-toothed comb,” said Matt LaFleur after the game. “Look at every facet of our program, and what we’re doing, and what we’re asking guys to do. And not only that but the standards and expectations that we have in each area. I think that a lot of times when you have success, certain things can get covered up by winning games. I think everything has pretty much been exposed right now. So we will take a look at everything in terms of how we operate. It’s evident that whatever we did this year was not good enough.”

Once again, it’s going to be an offseason full of questions here in Green Bay, but before we look ahead, let’s look back at Sunday’s performance by going Behind the Numbers, with the stats and figures you need to know.

4-12 and 1-2

The red zone and third downs have given the Green Bay Packers issues for much of the season, and that was the case once again versus Detroit. As they did in the first game, the Lions were aggressive, playing a heavy dose of cover-1 with heavy boxes in an effort to try and take the run game away. For the most part, they were successful, and as has been the case this season, when the Packers have to rely on the passing game to carry them, they just haven’t been good enough. Green Bay finished the night 4-12 on third downs and 1-2 in the red zone, despite six trips to Lions’ territory.

39%

The play and health of the offensive line has been perhaps the biggest reason behind the Packers’ turnaround on offense, which began in Week 10 against Dallas. However, the Lions were able to give them fits. Early on, the Packers replaced Yosh Nijman with Zach Tom, and the right side, in general, had issues throughout the game. As a team, the Packers averaged just 3.7 yards per rush, and Rodgers was pressured nearly 39% of the time, a very high rate. As Matt LaFleur said afterward, they just didn’t block well enough. From there, was a trickle-down effect to the rest of the offense.

6.5

Matt LaFleur has mentioned a few times this season that when things go well, the quarterback often gets more praise than they should. And when things go bad, the quarterback takes more blame than they should. LaFleur’s point is that this is a team game, and always multiple reasons behind anything that happens, whether good or bad. This was true again against the Lions, with the offensive line struggling and pass catchers dropping passes. But with that said, it still wasn’t a good game from Aaron Rodgers, either. Rodgers would average 6.5 yards per pass attempt, which over the course of a season, would rank 29th in the NFL. He was inaccurate at times and, at the end of the game, really tried to force things downfield. As has been the case somewhat often this season, Rodgers could never quite get into a rhythm. It certainly hasn’t looked like it, but believe it or not, the Lions have not had a good defense this season.

3.7

I’ve written about it specifically or mentioned it in various articles, but the Packers’ ability to move the ball on the ground has been a near-must for this offense, even when they’ve been playing their best football. As already mentioned, the Lions did a good job of taking the run game away by having more defenders near the line of scrimmage. Early on, the Packers tried to use Detroit’s aggressiveness to their advantage by running several end-arounds and jet sweeps, but there was only mild success. Credit to the Packers for sticking with the run game throughout the matchup, as they ran the ball 28 times compared to 27 pass attempts, and play-action helped set up the downfield pass to Christian Watson. But again, the blocking wasn’t good enough, and yards were very hard to come by, as evidenced by their 3.7 yards per carry, which led to a number of third and longs.

0-2

Turnovers have been a big part of the Packers’ success during their four-game win streak, with them generating 12 in that short span. These extra opportunities for the offense helped masked many of their deficiencies that they were dealing with while playing winning football. The Lions, however, have been very good at protecting the ball, with Jared Goff’s last interception coming in Week 9 against Green Bay. They are also a team that hadn’t fumbled much this season either. The Packers, on the other hand, had a crucial fumble by Aaron Jones as the offense neared the end zone, while Rodgers heaved a game-ending interception downfield. He also had another interception come back because of a Lions’ penalty.

19.7

The Lions entered Sunday’s game with one of the best special teams units in the NFL, and it showed with how they were able to bottle up Keisean Nixon. The Green Bay offense has benefitted greatly from Nixon’s explosive play in recent weeks, but Detroit held him to just 19.7 yards per kick return. This was just another aspect that the Packers’ offense had been leaning heavily on during the win streak, but they were unable to overcome not having that big play ability.

4.4

It’ll get glossed over in the loss, but it was another nice performance by the Green Bay Packers defense, and against another offense that has been one of the best at putting up points. Green Bay was able to limit the big passing play — for the most part — by playing a lot of cover-2. The play of the interior defensive line in recent weeks has been a key part of their success, and they again kept the run game in check, holding Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift to 4.4 yards per carry. When the defense can sit in cover-2 and not let the opposing run game take over, that’s a win. As always, there are areas that could have been better, including not being able to generate any turnovers or regular pressure, but Green Bay held a top-scoring offense to just 20 points.

Too many

The story of this game for the Green Bay Packers were the missed opportunities. In nine drives, the Green had six trips across midfield into Detroit Lions, yet they totaled just 16 points. On third downs, as already mentioned, the Packers were just 4-12. In the red zone, they were 1-2. On top of that, there were dropped passes, Aaron Rodgers wasn’t very sharp, there were turnovers, and the blocking up front by the offensive line was inconsistent, both against the run and pass.

Defensively, the Packers had two personal foul penalties on drives that ended in 10 points for the Lions. They were unable to create turnovers, and overall, the complimentary football that we had seen from Green Bay just wasn’t happening. In short, many of the same issues that had plagued the Packers for much of the season were the ones that led to this loss and Green Bay’s season coming to an end.

“Again, we kinda played like we did before the last few games,” said Rodgers after the game. “Non-complimentary football, turning the ball over on offense, teams didn’t really make a splash play. And then we squandered opportunities in the red zone, terrible on third downs. The same things that hurt us all year.”

Late in the first half, it very much felt like this game had the possibility of spiraling out of control, with Green Bay down two scores and Miami nearing scoring position. However, a gutsy – although somewhat inefficient – performance by the Packers resulted in a 26-20 victory over the Miami Dolphins, with their playoff hopes very much alive and well.

To put a bow on this game, let’s go Behind the Numbers with the stats and figures you need to know from the Packers’ performance.

192

It was a matchup that greatly favored the Green Bay Packers–the blitz-heavy Dolphins against Aaron Rodgers. Despite the ups and downs that Rodgers and the offense as a whole have experienced this season, he has been very good against the blitz, completing 66% of his 106 pass attempts at 7.6 yards per attempt. Miami, meanwhile, entered Sunday’s game with the seventh-highest blitz rate in the NFL.

According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Dolphins blitzed Rodgers on 26 of his dropbacks, but Rodgers threw for 192 of his 238 total yards on those plays, along with his lone touchdown. Even without Yosh Nijman at right tackle, the offensive line held up well, surrendering only five pressures the entire game. For a veteran quarterback of Rodges’ caliber, blitzing him sets up a simple game of pitch and catch in most instances, as he, more often than not, is prepared for the blitz, knowing where it will be coming from or at least who to get the ball to in those situations. This is also a Dolphins secondary that ranked 26th by DVOA in pass defense prior to Sunday’s game, and when blitzing as frequently as they did, they were often down a defender in coverage.

Opponents will want to blitz Rodgers, but perhaps the best way to defend him is to do what the Rams did by sitting back in cover-2 the entire game, forcing Rodgers to be patient and take what’s there. If anything, the Rams were able to keep the Green Bay passing game in check.

61 and 3.5

I’ve written about it before, but the run game and the number of points the Packers score have gone hand in hand since Week 9 against Detroit–or at least that was the case before the Dolphins game. In the four games prior, where the Packers scored at least 24 points, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon averaged 138 rushing yards per game at more than five yards per carry. In the two games against Detroit and Tennesse, where they scored just nine and 17, respectively, the duo rushed for 112 yards at 2.9 yards per attempt.

However, against the Dolphins, the run game was slowed, or for the first two quarters, nonexistent, but Green Bay still found ways to put up points. In total, Jones and Dillon rushed for 61 yards at 3.5 yards per rush. Especially early on, Miami was very much daring Green Bay to throw, and against a sub-par secondary, the Packers were happy to oblige. On top of that, the Dolphins interior defensive line controlled the line of scrimmage as well.

But because of four turnovers and the Packers coming up with a few big throws through the air, they were able to put up 26 points, and it could have been more had they been more effective in the red zone. A somewhat balanced run-pass mix, along with success, will continue to be important for the Packers as the run game opens up the rest of the offense, but there will be times when it simply isn’t working, and they will have to find other ways to win. On previous occasions, when this happened, they were unable to do so.

0

The Miami big-play passing game was always going to be a problem for the Packers, and we saw that early on as the Tua Tagovailoa entered halftime averaging 15.2 yards per attempt with Tyreek Hill totaling 84 yards and Jaylen Waddle 96 plus a touchdown. But in the second half, things turned around dramatically for the Packers, in large part due to pressure, turnovers, and some yelling from defensive backs coach Jerry Gray.

In the third and fourth quarters, the Packers were able to generate more consistent pressure, disrupting Tagovailoa’s timing, which is an important part of the Miami offense with the quick passing game, and forcing him out of the pocket. Matt LaFleur also talked about how all 11 players were on the same page that second half after having a few coverage breakdowns early on.

On the Jaire Alexander interception, numerous defenders were around Hill, and Tagovailoa delivered a high pass. De’Vondre Campbell read Tagovalioa’s eyes perfectly and got into position to make the play, while Rasul Douglas baited Tagovailoa into thinking he was taking the underneath route, but he instead dropped back.

The end result was no points for the high-powered Miami offense in the second half. Tagovailoa threw for just 81 yards, while Hill and Waddle combined for 66.

4

Jarran Reed had his best game of the season, leading the team in pressures with four while also recording four stops, and for what it’s worth, he had PFF’s second-highest run defense grade out of all interior defenders in Week 16.

On top of all of that, he also had perhaps the biggest play of the game, forcing a fumble and recovering it just before halftime. At that point, Miami was up 20 to 10 at midfield and threatening to score. The game very much felt like it was going to get out of hand at that point, with the Dolphins potentially going up three scores. But instead, Reed forced the turnover, the Packers kicked a field goal and then scored a touchdown to open the third quarter. All of a sudden, it was a tie game.

4

In the first half, the Green Bay Packers lost four starters to injury–Keisean Nixon, Christian Watson, Dean Lowry, and Yosh Nijman, not to mention that Aaron Jones was used sparingly throughout the game after being on the injury report this week. However, in the place of those starters, the backups filled in and played very well, helping the Packers secure the win.

On defense, Innis Gaines took over in the slot, along with Darnell Savage taking snaps at safety after a rough first half from Rudy Ford. Both defenders played key roles in the Packers shutting out Miami in the second half. Devonte Wyatt saw more snaps without Lowry and forced two quarterback pressures. Patrick Taylor, meanwhile, had a key third-down reception on what ended up being a scoring drive, along with picking up a blitzer on Rodgers’ pass to Marcedes Lewis. And although Royce Newman was called for two penalties, PFF credited him with only one pressure, and there was little change in the Packers’ offensive game plan with him on the field. This was very much a total team effort.

2 and 1

The simplest path to the playoffs for the Packers is to win their final two games and for Washington to lose at least one of theirs. They will be at home for Cleveland in Week 17, followed by Dallas. Another path for Green Bay includes winning out, along with the New York Giants losing their final two games.

2 other key stats

Third downs: Green Bay was an abysmal 2-14 on third downs, and I believe the root of those issues comes from their ineffectiveness on the ground, which set up a lot of third and long situations. They were, however, 3-5 on fourth down.

It also wasn’t only the Packers who struggled on third downs, but the Dolphins as well. The issue for the Green Bay defense was that they didn’t force Miami into many third-down situations, but when they did, they were just 2-7.

Total plays: Thanks to four turnovers by the defense, the Packers’ offense ran 20 more plays than Miami, which proved to be pivotal. For one, that was 20 fewer opportunities that the Dolphins’ explosive offense had to put points on the board, and it also gave a Packers’ offense that wasn’t exactly efficient more bites at the apple.

As the old saying goes, a win is a win. Despite the defense giving up several big plays and the offense struggling to move the ball for much of the game, the Green Bay Packers came away with the win over the Chicago Bears to improve to 5-8.

With the game behind us, it’s time to go Behind the Numbers with the stats and figures you need to know from the Packers’ performance.

206 v. 203

It was all or nothing for this Bears offense against the Packers. They were either generating big plays, or the Packers were creating turnovers and getting stops. Chicago finished the game with 409 total yards, and 206 of those came on just five plays. Over the Bears’ other 45 plays on offense, they totaled just 203 yards, averaging a measly 4.5 yards per play.

Fileds had a 56-yard touchdown run on a read-option that included a missed tackle, a bad angle from Adrian Amos, and Bears offensive linemen at the second level to create running lanes. Two of the other big plays were 56 and 49-yard receptions by Equanimeous St. Brown and N’Keal Harry, with Jarie Alexander in coverage. Cole Kmet also had a 24-yard catch, and Darrynton Evans a 21-yard rush.

Other than Fields’ big run, he totaled just 15 rushing yards on his other five rushing attempts. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Packers played zone coverage 100% of the time, which allowed the defensive backs to keep their eyes on Fields to limit rush opportunities, rather than playing man, where their backs would be turned. Green Bay was also able to contain David Montgomery, who averaged 4.3 yards per rush but had a long of only nine. We saw the Packers playing with heavier boxes, and overall, the defensive front played better by getting off blocks and setting better edges, along with Kenny Clark having his best game in some time.

With that said, while Green Bay did what they needed to and can only play the opponent scheduled, it’s not as if this was a good Bears offense they were going up against, either. It’s a lot easier to fully commit to defending the run when the Packers don’t have to really be worried about the passing game, as they did against Philadelphia and Buffalo, two other teams with mobile quarterbacks.

3

In a game where the Packers trailed for much of it, their ability to create turnovers — something that hasn’t happened often this season — played a huge role in the win. With the Bears near midfield, Rasul Douglas forced a fumble. Later on, Jaire Alexander came away with an interception that led to a Packers touchdown that put that up nine points. Then Keisean Nixon intercepted a pass to end the game.

28

The Packers scored 28 points, their third-highest total of the season. Green Bay’s three highest-scoring games this season have all occurred in their last four games. It’s not a coincidence that this has happened when the offensive line has been its healthiest and playing its best football, Christian Watson has emerged as a true game-changer, and the run game has been incredibly effective.

As offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said last Thursday when the offense has a big play threat on the outside and a strong run game to lean on, “it is that simple.”

4

Justin Fields had 28 dropbacks against Green Bay, and PFF credited the Bears’ offensive line with only four pressures allowed. Now, an important distinction, Fields was pressured more than four times, but the other six that the Packers were credited with were on Fields for holding the ball–PFF deemed that the offensive line did their job on those plays.

Creating consistent pressure has been a major issue for the Packers since they lost Rashan Gary, and it’s not as if they were facing a lights-out Bears offensive line, either. Joe Barry is going to have to help this group out by using more blitzes and twists to try to manufacture some pressures. For much of the season, Barry has relied on his defensive front to win their one-on-one matchups, but that isn’t working without Gary, and Kenny Clark has seen more double-teams.

5.2

Green Bay had a good run-pass mix in this game, with 29 designed runs to 31 pass attempts. With Aaron Jones banged up, AJ Dillon handled the workload, finishing with 93 yards on 18 carries and averaging 5.2 yards per rush. While the passing game struggled to get going, Dillon and the run game gave the Packers’ offense something to lean on.

Since Week 10, we’ve seen a much more productive version of Dillon. In Weeks 1-9, he was averaging 4.0 yards per rush, but since then, it’s been 5.3, which ranks seventh in that span. He’s also been much better at picking up yards after contact and has five runs of 10-plus yards, the eighth most in the last four games among running backs.

Dillon has certainly been playing with more explosiveness, but he’s also benefitted from a healthy offensive line. Whereas Jones has the ability to create for himself more, Dillon needs that running lane to really get going.

2

Now granted, this is a Bears defense that has been one of the worst at creating pressure, but the Packers’ offensive line continued their impressive play. PFF would credit the Green Bay linemen with only two pressures allowed, while Dillon averaged over five yards per rush. Zach Tom would again fill in quite well at left tackle.

As the offense has been picking up steam, any success will begin with the offensive line play.

182

It wasn’t the usual Aaron Rodgers vs. the Chicago Bears performance that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing throughout the years. He completed 18/31 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown. There were some inaccurate throws and also a lot of what felt like unnecessary heaves downfield. Either the receivers weren’t getting open against a depleted Bears’ secondary, or Rodgers was holding on to the ball too long, far too often.

94 and 2

Game-changing. As I mentioned already, the Packers’ success on offense over the last month coincides with Watson’s play. In addition to his big play ability, having that speed on the outside spreads out the defense, which opens up the run game as well as opportunities for other Green Bay pass catchers.

Watson is entering rarified air over the last month with his production, and at least for me, every time he touches the ball, I’m almost expecting a big play to follow. He finished Sunday’s game with a 46-yard touchdown run and 48 yards through the air with another touchdown.

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