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The first 10 seasons of the College Football Playoff largely delivered what it promised with two semifinal games to determine which two teams would face off for a national championship. There were definitely highs and lows, thrilling overtime games and embarrassing blowouts and plenty of controversy around the four teams selected.
Now, in the 11th season of the College Football Playoff, the field expanded to 12 teams and 11 total games with a first round and quarterfinals added to the semis and title game.
12-team CFP: The new College Football Playoff format, rankings and seeding, explained
While there will surely still be debates about who should have gotten in, who didn’t deserve a spot and what seeds were earned or not, most college football fans would probably agree that expansion was necessary. And with it comes an extended postseason with playoff games beginning in mid-December and the title game pushed back to January 20.
So what would make the 12-team College Football Playoff a success in its first season?
For The Win’s college football show, Before The Snap, was joined by The Solid Verbal podcast’s Dan Rubenstein and Ty Hildenbrandt to zoom out and consider what factors would make the playoff expansion a win.
1. Incredible first-round games on college campuses
Dan Rubenstein, The Solid Verbal: I think it’s incredible games on campus because if we have incredible games on campus that first weekend… it’s going to generate buzz, right? There’s nothing like a great game deep into the season that is going to get and keep people excited for the playoff.
So whether it is Penn State hosting a game, whether it is Miami hosting a game, whether it’s Texas hosting a game, there is going to be something new and novel about having a December game on campus. Maybe that goes to overtime, maybe that gets us a matchup we’ve never seen or rarely seen. That, I think, would for me [make the 12-team playoff a success] because I think we’re gonna end up seeing a lot of the familiar teams later on in the playoff. But if we can get that early, that’s almost a justification for the move.
2. A regular season that doesn’t feel watered down in hindsight
Ty Hildenbrandt, The Solid Verbal: If we make it through the full regular season without it feeling like things got watered down, that would be a huge plus because that was the argument against this system. “Oh, they’re going to add the playoff.” “Oh, losses aren’t going to have the same weight that they did before.” “People won’t watch.”
I have not detected that thus far, and maybe it’s because it’s a weird year in college football, and we don’t have any obvious powerhouses this season [besides Oregon]. … It feels to me like we have not gotten to that point yet where people are saying, “Yeah, this feels watered down. We don’t like the product.” So if we make it the full way through, that would be a plus.
3. An air of unpredictability, especially early in the playoff
Ty Hildenbrandt, The Solid Verbal: Just this air of unpredictability. If we have that with the playoff, that would, in and of itself, be a success. I think, part of the vibes we have picked up from our listeners over the years — why they don’t like the playoff as much, why they hate talking about the playoff is because it feels like it is the same teams. It feels like, oh, it’s going to be Alabama, or it’s going to be Georgia, it’s going to be Clemson or Ohio State. …
But if we can get to that point where it doesn’t feel like this is pre-ordained, and there is a real, legit reason to watch the first round on campus … kind of like you get with the NCAA tournament where you’re intrigued by the teams that are in it, you’re not necessarily sure who’s gonna win — that would be a success in my eyes.
4. A Group of Five or Cinderella team winning at least one playoff game
Michelle Martinelli, FTW: What I was thinking would make it a success is we do have those staples, and I think an expanded College Football Playoff actually helps the haves more than the have-nots, and we will see the usual suspects back in the playoff. But I think another indicator of what would make it a success is if one of those lower-ranked playoff teams, or a Group of Five team, makes it to the semifinals and sees success there — whether it’s Boise State or Indiana or BYU or someone who’s never been in the conversation really in the four-team playoff.
I think that if we look back at past years of teams, like Cincinnati, who actually made it in, or we go all the way back and look at UCF, who definitely felt like they should have made it in 2017, I think that would make it a success is if we see some of these lower-ranked playoff teams who are not typically in the playoff conversation, making it past the first round.
Ty Hildenbrandt, The Solid Verbal: You need the Cinderella, right? Every good tournament has the Cinderella. You need the Cinderella that everybody else can root for if their team isn’t in it. That gives them a reason to watch, gives them someone to rally behind.
5. A first-round upset on an opponent’s campus
Blake Schuster, BetFTW: A higher-ranked team losing a home game on campus would be incredible scenes. But similarly, a first-round conference rematch on campus ending with the home team rushing the field would be just as iconic. The only thing the College Football Playoff absolutely must avoid is blowouts.
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