The 3-seed Arkansas Razorbacks (25-6) take on the 1-seed Baylor Bears (25-2) in a South Regional Elite 8 game Monday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:57 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Baylor-Arkansas odds and lines, with March Madness NCAA Tournament picks and predictions.
Baylor stormed back from a 7-point deficit at the end of the first half of its Sweet 16 game vs. 5-seed Villanova to win 62-51 and cover the spread as a 7.5-point favorite.
Each of the Bears’ three NCAA Tournament victories has been by double digits but they’ve gone 2-1 against the spread. This is Baylor’s third Elite 8 appearance in head coach Scott Drew’s 18 seasons on the job.
The Razorbacks also climbed back from a 7-point first-half deficit to beat 15-seed Oral Roberts 72-70 in the Sweet 16. They couldn’t cover as monster 11.5-point favorites.
In head coach Eric Musselman’s second season, Arkansas has advanced to the Elite 8 for the first time since the Razorbacks lost in the National Final to UCLA in 1995.
Baylor vs. Arkansas: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Baylor -400 (bet $400 to win $100) | Arkansas +310 (bet $100 to win $310)
- Against the spread/ATS: Baylor -8 (-110) | Arkansas +8 (-110)
- Over/Under: 148.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Baylor vs. Arkansas: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Baylor 75, Arkansas 71
Money line (ML)
PASS even though I like Arkansas to cover because Baylor has so many ways it can win and players who can create their own quality looks.
The Razorbacks’ path to victory is turning this game into a “rock fight” and getting the Bears into foul trouble.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Baylor’s offense pulled a no-show in the Sweet 16, sinking a season-low three 3-pointers against Villanova, whose 3-point defense is far worse than that of Arkansas.
The Bears got back into that game, and eventually won it, because of their insane ball pressure which forced ‘Nova miscues and led to easy buckets. Baylor won the turnover battle with Villanova 15-5 and is sixth in the nation in defensive turnover rate.
Villanova lost its leader and starting point guard Collin Gillespie to a knee injury in the regular season so it was easier for Baylor to ruffle Villanova’s feathers.
All-SEC first-team Arkansas PG Moses Moody is fifth in the conference in turnover rate and should stabilize the Razorbacks’ offense through turbulent stretches in this game.
Furthermore, I have trouble laying 8 points with Baylor when it’s only 292nd in FTA/FG rate and 265th in defensive rebounding percentage.
It would be easier for the Bears to create a margin if they were more aggressive at getting to the foul line and I could see the Razorbacks getting easy putbacks and second-chance points since Baylor is a bad defensive rebounding team.
BET ARKANSAS +8 (-110) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
While it’s notable how poorly Baylor shot from three in the Sweet 16 because it has the highest 3-point shooting percentage in the nation, Arkansas made a season-low one 3-pointer in its Sweet 16 game.
The Razorbacks are 2-8 O/U in their previous 10 games and the Bears have gone Under the total in two of three NCAA Tournament games.
BET a half-unit on UNDER 148.5 (-110).
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