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Well, we did it again. We took favorites on the road, and it cost us. This week, we are going to stay away from the cute picks and go with the smart picks. Hopefully, it wins us some money.
After looking at BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL Week 6 odds, here’s our “Let’s make some money” NFL parlay bet to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.
After a dismal couple of weeks, it is time to really get down to business. The good thing about parlays is that it only takes one to make up for many misses.
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NFL Week 5: Let’s make some money parlay
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 12:04 p.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.
Leg 1: Commanders at Falcons OVER 42 (-110) — 1 p.m. (CBS)
Washington is coming off a bad 40-20 home loss on Thursday Night Football to the Chicago Bears as 6-point favorites. This means they get an extra 3 days of rest heading into this matchup against QB Desmond Ritter and the Atlanta Falcons, who won 21-19 as 2.5-point favorites against the Houston Texans on Sunday.
Playing from behind, Commanders QB Sam Howell was forced to throw 51 passes, completing 37 for 388 yards against a bad Bears secondary. With WR Terry McLaurin in the fold, Washington will again rely on the passing game in this matchup against a Falcons team which wants to run the ball.
Although Atlanta will want to run the ball with RBs Bijon Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, Ritter showed last week he can throw when needed, completing 28 of 37 passes for 329 yards and 1 TD. If he can continue to throw the ball like that, WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts could finally break out and join the party.
Washington 1st-round CB Emmanuel Forbes was benched late in the game against Chicago. He was torched by WR D.J. Moore, who finished with 230 yards and 3 TDs on 8 receptions. If Forbes can recover, this could limit the Falcons offense. Washington has been scoring of late, but it has also been giving up points in bunches, allowing 37 points per game in its last 3 outings.
The Over 42 is slightly too low in this game and I like the number up to 44.5.
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Leg 2: Seahawks at Bengals OVER 45.5 (-105) — 1 p.m. (CBS)
The Bengals finally had an offensive explosion against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5. Returning home after scoring 34 points, QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja’Marr Chase finally seem to be on the same page and the shin injury suffered by Burrow in the preseason seems to be on the mend.
Chase, who is always open, had 3 TD catches and if he is matched against rookie CB Devon Witherspoon, who has struggled a bit, this could be another banner day for the Burrow-to-Chase connection.
The Bengals defense finally showed up against Arizona with 2 picks of QB Josh Dobbs. But Seattle QB Geno Smith will have the likes of WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to throw to. One of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL, Metcalf and Lockett will get downfield and make plays in this game.
We took the Over of 44.5 in the Bengals vs. Cardinals game last week and it hit as the game finished 34-20. I am betting the Bengals will remain hot this week as they head into their bye week in Week 7. Seattle had its bye week in Week 5 and will come out refreshed and ready to flex.
In its past two road games, Seattle has averaged 30.5 points per game. The 45.5 is a solid number. But getting it at -105 value is even better. Take the OVER.
Leg 3: CHARGERS ML (+112) vs. Cowboys — Monday 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Dallas struggles against good teams. Although we do not know how good the Chargers are, We know QB Justin Herbert and WR Keenan Allen have a good connection. We also know WR Austin Ekeler is supposed to be back for the game. This will add another dimension to a Chargers offense which needs it with WR Mike Williams on IR.
QB Dak Prescott had another bad game in a big spot with 3 INTs in a 42-10 loss against the San Francisco 49ers as 3.5-point underdogs. The book is out on LB Micah Parsons. Run directly at him and it keeps him from being able to rush the QB. While the Chargers are not a running team, they will be able to use the short pass game to Ekeler to keep Parsons from getting to Herbert. This will keep the offense on the field and Dallas WRs CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallop and Brandin Cooks off the field against a weakened Chargers secondary.
Dallas finished with just 57 yards rushing against San Francisco. This was below their season average of 124.4 and Dallas must get back to the run game with RB Tony Pollard against a Los Angeles defense which allows 104.2 yards, good for 14th< in the NFL.
Los Angeles allows an NFL-worst 299.8 yards passing per game, but Dallas has only been able to average 203 yards a game. Where the Cowboys thrive, the Chargers are also strong. And where the Cowboys struggle, so do the Chargers. This will make for a weird game. Dallas should not be favored on the road, and I will take the value. Not just with the Chargers to cover the 2.5-point spread, but to win the game outright at +112.
Parlay payout: Bet $10 to profit $69.02 (payout = $79.02).
Try out the USA TODAY Parlay Calculator.
Leg 4-*: Ravens vs. Titans UNDER 41(-110) — 9:30 a.m. (NFL Network)
*-If you want to add a 4th play to this parlay.
Both games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium went OVER in 2022. But in the 1st game this season, between the Jaguars and the Buffalo Bills, the Under 48.5 hit. With both the Ravens and Titans wanting to run the ball, this will be another Under in London.
The Titans will look to get RB Derrick Henry going as QB Ryan Tannehill has been less than stellar in recent games. In 5 games, Tannehill has thrown for just 1,052 yards with 2 TDs and 5 INTs. Henry has also started slowing with 328 yards and 2 TD on 86 carries.
Baltimore will also look to run the ball with RB Gus Edwards and QB Lamar Jackson. Edwards will be the main back with J.K. Dobbins out for the season with Justice Hill also getting work.
Hill, a 4th-round selection out of Oklahoma State in 2019, has 3 TDs and 115 yards on 29 carries. In the 17-10 loss Sunday, Hill had 7 carries for 32 yards and scored the only TD for the Ravens.
Both teams will look to milk the clock and shorten the game. This will lead to minimal scoring and an Under in London.
Parlay payout: Bet $10 to profit $140.85 (payout = $140.85).
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