Tag: Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies odds predictions pick betting line spread

Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Baltimore Orioles (62-39) and Philadelphia Phillies (54-47) play the finale of a 3-game set at Citizens Bank Park Wednesday. First pitch is at 6:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The O’s had a 3-game winning streak snapped with a 4-3 loss Tuesday night to the Phils. Baltimore has gone 14-6 over the last 20 games to take a 1 1/2-game lead in the AL East. They are 15-13 in interleague play and 32-19 on the road this season. The O’s love left-handed starters as they are 23-10 against them this season.

The Phillies have hit their stride to pull within a half-game from a NL Wild-Card spot. They are 17-13 over the last 30 games, and Bryce Harper has yet to find his power stroke. His .807 OPS would be the 2nd-worst of his career, but he’s making up for that with a .296 BA and .388 OBP.

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Orioles at Phillies projected starters

RHP Kyle Bradish vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Bradish (6-5, 3.05 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 97 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K against the Tampa Bay Rays Friday
  • Has never faced the Phillies
  • Away splits: 3-2, 3.72 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 vs. 3-3, 2.39 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 at home

Suarez (2-5, 4.07 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 73 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 5 K vs. Cleveland Guardians Friday
  • 1 career start vs. Orioles: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 5 K on Sept. 20, 2021

Orioles at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Orioles -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+150) | Phillies +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Orioles at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 5, Phillies 3

Moneyline

Bradish has been a big reason for the Orioles’ ascent to the top of one of the toughest divisions in baseball. He has a 1.62 ERA over his last 7 starts and hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any of them. Suarez has been touched for at least 3 ER in his last 4 starts, and we mentioned the O’s take care of business against southpaws.

I’m a little surprised to see Baltimore as short dogs here, and I’d be delighted to take ORIOLES -105.

Run line/Against the spread

I’m a big fan of the Orioles’ side of the RL here, They are a dominant 37-12 on the RL on the road this year. Conversely, the Phillies are just 14-33 on the RL at home. It’s risky, but the numbers add up. Take the ORIOLES -1.5 (+150).

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Over/Under

The Over is just 2-7-1 in the last 10 matchups between the teams, and we haven’t seen more than 7 runs in the last 5. Baltimore is 4-6 O/U over the last 10, and Philadelphia is 3-7.

Take the UNDER 9 (-110).

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Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Baltimore Orioles (62-38) continue their 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies (53-47) Tuesday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Baltimore leads 1-0

In Game 1 of their series Monday, the pitchers brought their A game. Orioles RHP Dean Kremer threw 7 innings and allowed 1 ER on 3 hits while  Phillies LHP Cristopher Sanchez responded with 7 IP and 2 ER allowed with 8 K’s.

In the end Baltimore pulled off the 3-2 win thanks to LF Colton Cowser, who despite batting .128 hit the go-ahead double in the top of the 9th inning. The Phillies had 2 on with 2 out in the bottom of the 9th, but CF Johan Rojas grounded out to end the game.

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Orioles at Phillies projected starters

RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Taijuan Walker

Gibson (9-6, 4.76 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 121 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 8 K in a 4-3 road win vs. Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday
  • 2023 road stats: 5-3, 4.23 ERA (72 1/3 IP, 34 ER) in 12 starts
  • Career vs. Phillies: 0-0, 6.00 ERA (6 IP, 4 ER) in 1 start

Walker (11-4, 4.11 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 107 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 4-0 home loss versus the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday.
  • 2023 home stats: 5-1, 2.76 ERA (49 IP, 15 ER) in 9 starts
  • Career vs. Baltimore: 4-1, 2.45 ERA (44 IP, 12 ER) in 8 starts

Orioles at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:12 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Orioles +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-185) | Phillies -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Orioles at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Orioles 5

Moneyline

It’s tough to bet against this Baltimore team with their 32-18 road record, but there are a few reasons to pick the Phillies.

Orioles pitcher Gibson struggles against the National League. In 5 games he is 0-2 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.

Phillies RHP Walker is the opposite, sporting a 5-1 record from his 7 starts with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Plus at home Walker has been impressive, allowing a .178 batting average and .314 slugging. Add that with Philadelphia’s 20-13 interleague record and I like the Phillies.

LEAN PHILLIES -120.

Run line/Against the spread

While I’m backing the Phillies to win, their stats against the spread are  embarassing. At home the Phillies have the worst ATS record in MLB (14-32), covering in just 30% of those games. The Orioles are the exact opposite, having the best ATS record (37-13).

As a favorite Philadelphia also fails to cover more often than not (23-41) while Baltimore is 26-8 as a road underdog. Lastly, the Phillies have been favorites for 9 straight games (not counting Tuesday) and have won and covered in just 2 of them. Therefore AVOID this line.

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Over/Under

Philadelphia is one of the better Under teams, where at home they have a 24-17-5 Under record. Baltimore, on the other hand, likes the Over and has a 27-18-5 Over record.

That being said, the Phillies break this trend coming off a loss where they actually have a 53.5% Over rate (23-20-3). After Monday’s game gave us just 5 total runs, I see the bats showing up Tuesday.

LEAN OVER 9.5 (+100).

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Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Baltimore Orioles (61-38) will open a 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies (53-46) on Monday. First pitch at Citizens Bank Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting since Phillies took 2 of 3 games in 2021

The red-hot Orioles beat the Tampa Bay Rays 5-3 on Sunday and won 3 of 4 in the series. Baltimore has 12 wins in their last 15 games and they now boast the best record in the American League. They lead the AL East by 2 games over the Rays.

The Phillies had dropped 4 games in a row before winning an extra-inning affair 8-5 against the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday. In a tight NL Wild-Card race they are currently on the outside looking in, but they are within 1 game of all 3 teams occupying those spots.

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Orioles at Phillies projected starters

RHP Dean Kremer vs. LHP Cristopher Sanchez

Kremer (10-4, 4.80 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 108 2/3 innings.

  • Has a 4.04 ERA and 9.7 K/9 in 49 IP over 9 starts on the road
  • Allowed just 11 HR in 125 1/3 IP in 2022, but has already surrendered 22 HR in 108 2/3 IP (1.8 HR/9) so far this year

Sanchez (0-3, 3.06 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 35 1/3 innings.

  • Has made 5 of his 7 starts at home where he has a 3.91 ERA and 23/5 K/BB in 25 1/3 IP
  • Has shown excellent control in the majors this season, but owns a career 4.2 BB/9 in his minor-league career, including a 5.3 mark in 10 appearances (8 starts) at Triple-A this season

Orioles at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:04 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Orioles +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Phillies -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-185) | Phillies -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Orioles at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 6, Phillies 4

Moneyline

Baltimore has been on quite a run and they have overtaken the Rays in the AL East. They are 31-18 on the road, the 2nd-best mark in the league.

Sanchez has been pitching well, but has a history of poor control and is facing a tough test against a Baltimore offense that ranks 6th in wRC+ vs lefties and 2nd in BB% against them.  Back the ORIOLES +105.

Run line/Against the spread

This looks like an evenly-matched game that should be close, but -185 is a steep price to pay for +1.5 runs. There is better value elsewhere so PASS on the run line.

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Over/Under

Kremer has had his ups and downs but has overall been pretty mediocre throughout the season and has had some HR issues. On the other side, Sanchez has been pitching over his head, as he has benefited from a .263 BABIP and has uncharacteristically shown excellent control.

Baltimore ranks 4th in the league in runs per game on the road while the Phillies are 11th in runs per game at home. Neither offense is likely to get shut down in this game, and look for this total to push OVER 9.5 +100.

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Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Baltimore Orioles (48-103) and Philadelphia Phillies (77-74) play the finale of an interleague three-game set Wednesday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Orioles vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Orioles LHP Keegan Akin (2-10, 6.93 ERA) makes his 17th start and 24th appearance. He has a 1.61 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 through 89 2/3 IP.

  • Allowed 4 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks with no strikeouts across 4 innings in a loss at the Boston Red Sox Friday in his last outing.
  • Is 0-2 with a 7.07 ERA with 3 homers allowed in 14 innings across three starts in September.

Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler (14-9, 2.83 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 through 200 1/3 IP.

  • Allowed 1 run on 4 hits and a walk with 6 strikeouts over 5 innings in a win Friday at the New York Mets for his fourth straight victory.
  • Is 3-0 with a 1.02 ERA with 2 earned runs allowed across 17 2/3 innings in three September starts.

Orioles at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 5:52 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Orioles +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Phillies -320 (bet $320 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Orioles +2.5 (-125) | Phillies -2.5 (+102)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Prediction

Phillies 8, Orioles 2

Money line (ML)

The Phillies (-320) are too expensive to play straight up. Over the long haul, betting favorites this heavy is a losing strategy.

AVOID and look to the run line instead.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PHILLIES -2.5 (+102) is a better value on the run line. They should be able to tune up the southpaw Akin, just like everyone else has been doing lately. OF Bryce Harper has been sizzling at the plate lately, and Wheeler has been outstanding on the bump.

Back the home side in this pitching mismatch.

Over/Under (O/U)

The play is the OVER 8.5 (+100). The Phillies might be able to take care of the number themselves. Akin has been the sacrificial lamb for the O’s, getting hammered every time out lately.

On the flip side, Wheeler has been pitching well and won’t allow much. However, the Phillies bats should be able to do most of the heavy lifting and inch this one across the finish line for an Over.

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