The Wisconsin Badgers (10-3) and Oregon Ducks (11-2) meet at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif., for the Rose Bowl Game on New Year’s Day. Kickoff is set for 5 p.m. ET. We analyze the Wisconsin-Oregon odds and betting lines, while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.
Wisconsin vs. Oregon: Three things you need to know
1. Statistically, the Badgers and Ducks are remarkably similar. Wisconsin averages 34.6 points per game; Oregon averages 35.9. The Badgers have yielded 16.1 PPG, the Ducks 15.7. Wisconsin averages 440 yards per game on offense; Oregon 451. The Badgers mostly run their way to the 440, while the Ducks pass their way to 451. On defense, both allow fewer than 4.9 yards per play, something only 21 teams can claim.
2. He may have been born in Madison, Wisc., but Badgers head coach Paul Chryst does just fine outside the friendly confines of Camp Randall Stadium. Chryst’s Wisconsin teams are 18-7 against the spread on the road. … The Badgers are ATS winners in bowl games over the last five consecutive years.
3. Oregon QB Justin Herbert is the nation’s active leader with 95 career touchdown tosses. He’s a big, florescent-green-and-highlighter-yellow factor in how many a bettor will view this contest. Herbert’s fine 2019 season numbers (66.7% completion rate, 3,333 yards passing, 32 TD passes, five interceptions) have been tallied on the backs of lesser teams. Now, overall that’s not an uncommon statistical analysis, but Herbert’s numbers are more divergent when facing credible defenses versus bottom feeders. Wisconsin sports elite pass defenders, and yet the Badgers have been a bit turnover-unlucky for the season.
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Wisconsin vs. Oregon: Odds, betting lines and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 11 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Wisconsin 31, Oregon 28
Moneyline (ML)
For this game (and set of current odds), the moneyline play offers the best value. WISCONSIN (-143) builds in some profit in a matchup against a lesser power-5 champ getting a bump from recency bias. The Badgers performances against Minnesota and Ohio State were elite and more grounded than Oregon’s top recent games.
New to sports betting? A $10 wager on Wisconsin returns a profit of $7.
Against the Spread (ATS)
The Ducks are 0-4 in postseason games since defeating Florida State in the 2014 Rose Bowl national semifinal. But recruiting-wise, this Ducks team is UO’s best in a while. Expect a close game with a mid-range score … and one more score for Wisconsin. PASS on Wisconsin (-2.5, -121).
Over/Under (O/U)
The Rose Bowl has produced five Overs against one Under across the last six years. Look for good scoring conditions (and an unheralded-but-good UW offense) to crank out an OVER 51.5 (-106).
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