Austen Lane vs. Justin Tafa odds picks and predictions betting line spread

UFC 293: Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 293 odds between Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round heavyweight bout on the main card, Justin Tafa and Austen Lane meet at UFC 293 on Saturday at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 293: Tafa vs. Lane odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Tafa (6-3-0) | Lane (12-3-0)

The early prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 6:30 p.m. ET, and the prelims can be viewed on ESPNews/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View

Lane and Tafa run it back after their previous meeting lasted just 29 seconds before resulting in a No Contest when the 2 fighters met at UFC Fight Night on June 24 in Jacksonville, Fla. Lane’s fingers appeared to go into both eyes of Tafa in one of the worst eye pokes you’ll ever see.

Tafa had a pair of 1st-round KO/TKO victories against Parker Porter and Harry Hunsucker in his 2 fights prior to the NC. He has been rather up and down since arriving at the UFC level, going 3-3 with the No Contest. Tafa has finished inside the distance in 4 of his 6 last fights and 7 of 9 career professional bouts.

The 29-second No Contest was Lane’s debut at the UFC level. Prior to that, he knocked out Richard Jacobi in Dana White’s Contender Series: Season 6, Week 9. He also has a heavyweight strap to his name after topping Juan Adams at Fury FC 54 back in Nov. 2021.

Lane holds a 6-inch reach advantage but the southpaw Tafa enters the bout with 5.02 significant strikes landed per minute and lanads 58.38% of those strikes. Neither is particularly strong on takedowns or the wrestling game, so expect this fight to be entirely upright.

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UFC 293: Tafa vs. Lane odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:35 p.m. ET.

Fight result (2-way line): Tafa -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Lane +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +180 | Under -240)
Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +500 | No -1000)

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UFC 293: Tafa vs. Lane picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Tafa (-200) heads into this fight with a chip on his shoulder after the last meeting ended with a double-eye poke. He felt as if the right call wasn’t made in his fight against Lane, and that he deserved a win bonus and a disqualification for Lane (+165).

While Tafa comes in with a ton of energy, laying 2 times your potential return is just too risky.

PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+180) is a tremendous value. While neither of these fighters is keen to go the distance, and we likely are going to see a knockout, expect this bout to go past the middle of Round 2.

It’s worth the risk for a chance to nearly double up despite that Tafa’s past 2 finished fights have ended in Round 1.

Lane’s past 3 pro bouts (including the NC) have ended in Round 1 as well, and he hasn’t made it out of the 1st round in 7 of his past 8 professional bouts. So there are risks here, but these 2 should have quite a slugfest.

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UFC on ABC 5: Austen Lane vs. Justin Tafa odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ABC 5 odds and lines between Austen Lane vs. Justin Tafa with MMA picks and predictions.

In a heavyweight bout on the main card, Austen Lane and Justin Tafa meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 5 at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 5: Lane vs. Tafa odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 11:30 a.m. ET, with the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Lane makes his UFC debut. The 35-year-old has won his past 6 professional bouts, including a 1st-round knockout of Richard Jacobi in Dana White’s Contender Series: Season 6, Week 9 in mid-September 2022.

In 15 career fights for the Bulldog Boxing team representative, 14 have ended via KO/TKO with an 11-3 record in those bouts. His other fight ended with a submission victory by rear-naked choke over Brad Taylor at Combat Night Pro 20 in mid-March 2021.

Tafa, nicknamed “Bad Man,” is a 29-year-old Australian southpaw who has had a roller coaster ride since making his UFC debut in October 2019. He is 3-3, although he has won his past 2 bouts after a dismal start. Both of the wins are 1st-round victories via KO/TKO against Parker Porter and Harry Hunsucker since December 2021.

Tafa has 9 career pro bouts, with 6 wins and 1 loss by way of KO/TKO, with a pair of decision losses at the UFC level against Carlos Felipe and Jared Vanderaa.

Tafa has the edge in significant-strikes landed per minute at 5.09 to just 4.17 for Lane, and the Aussie is much more accurate, too. He has a 58.84% significant strikes landed per minute percentage, to just 48.33% for Lane. Neither fight appears terribly interested in going to the mat or submitting foes, so you can mostly avoid those props in this one.

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UFC on ABC 5: Lane vs. Tafa odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:18 a.m. ET.

Fight result (2-way line): Lane +152 (bet $100 to win $152) | Tafa -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +172 | Under -220)
Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +440 | No -700)

UFC on ABC 5: Lane vs. Tafa picks and predictions

Records: Lane (12-3-0) | Tafa (6-3-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

TAFA (-180) is right at my personal limit for a moneyline wager. However, it isn’t out of line to play Tafa up to -195 if you are tossing him into a multi-way parlay ticket.

The newcomer to UFC, Lane, will be in for a rude welcoming from the more experienced Tafa. He is a power puncher who has racked up the knockouts throughout his brief, but impressive career. The one concern about Tafa, and his potential for a knockout in this fight, is that he gives up 6 inches of reach to Lane.

However, a 20-plus-pound weight difference, 6 years of youth and more frequent and accurate-significant striking should make that reach difference a wash.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-700): Will the fight go the distance? is a foolish play, and cannot be included anywhere, even in a multi-part parlay.

I would roll the dice on OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+172) for the plus-money opportunity. While the past 2 fights for both fighters at their respective levels have not made it out of the 1st round, I think we’ll see a more calculated Lane in his UFC debut.

He won’t be looking for, nor will he get, the opportunity for an early knockout, and I don’t think Tafa will be able to get the quick kill against an impressive prospect like Lane.

I’ll take the chance this one makes it a little deeper into the bout. At the same time, I like TAFA BY KO/TKO (-115) in the Method of Victory section.

TAFA TO WIN BY KO/TKO IN ROUNDS 2 OR 3 (+500) is also worth playing lightly for a chance to multiply your initial wager times 5.