Wisconsin leads Iowa in a key statistic that often decides the Heartland Trophy
Games in the storied rivalry between the Wisconsin Badgers and Iowa Hawkeyes are often defined by toughness, running the football and field position.
It’s no grand proclamation to say that the winner of Saturday’s matchup between the two teams will be the one that dominates the trenches and controls the game. Any fan of the sport can recognize that.
Related: Ranking the biggest storylines entering Wisconsin’s rivalry battle with Iowa
But there is one other stat that has decided every Wisconsin vs. Iowa game over the last four years — one that also points to a Badger victory in the 2024 edition.
That stat: punting average.
The team with the higher-ranked punter has won every matchup since 2019 — when Wisconsin won 24-22 despite P Anthony Lotti ranking near the bottom of the Big Ten with 39.7 yards per punt.
If the parameters are not clear, here is the result of the last four meetings in the rivalry, paired with where each team’s punter ranks in the Big Ten in season-long punting average:
- 2020: Iowa 28-7 win. Iowa P Tory Taylor had a season-long average of 44.1 yards per punt (3rd in Big Ten), while Wisconsin P Andy Vujnovich had a mark of 41.7 (10th in Big Ten)
- 2021: Wisconsin 27-7 win. Wisconsin P Andy Vujnovich at 46.4 (2nd in Big Ten), with Iowa P Tory Taylor at 46.1 (4th in Big Ten)
- 2022: Iowa 24-10 win. Iowa P Tory Taylor at 45.4 yards per punt (2nd in Big Ten), with Wisconsin P Andy Vujnovich at 43.9 (9th in Big Ten)
- 2023: Iowa 15-6 win. Iowa P Tory Taylor at 48.2 (1st in the Big Ten), with Wisconsin P Atticus Bertrams at 41.3 (13th in the Big Ten)
The winner of every meeting, as shown, has boasted the punter with the greater season-long punting average. Iowa great Tory Taylor tipped these scales with his All-American-caliber play, which coincided with the Hawkeyes winning three of four meetings.
Entering the 2024 matchup, the Badgers have this trend going in their direction. P Atticus Bertrams enters Saturday with a season-long punting average of 46.3 (4th in the Big Ten). Iowa P Rhys Dakin, meanwhile, is down at 44.8 (7th in the Big Ten).
There are better ways to evaluate punters than by their average. Some combination of punts inside the 10 yard-line, punts inside the 20, punting net (yards-minus-returns) and overall average paint a better picture.
Regardless, this exercise should show that Bertrams and Dakin are at least close in overall production — a reality that Wisconsin could rarely boast during Taylor’s storied career.
If more evidence was needed on Bertrams’ current form, take it from Penn State coach James Franklin in his postgame press conference after a 28-13 win over the Badgers:
“Starting field position, that was the difference in the game, especially early on. That’s why it was so challenging. I think their punter is really good.”
Bertrams notched 257 total yards and a 51.4 average on five punts, plus took a fake punt for a 15-yard rush and a first down. He had a dominant evening, and was far from the reason the Badgers lost.
That form could give Wisconsin the punting advantage on Saturday, which is a key factor in what projects to be a hard-fought game decided by field position.
If trends are any indication, that advantage will lead to a victory.
For more on the upcoming matchup and the Badgers’ possible advantages, check out our ranking of the game’s biggest storylines and the Badgers’ updated two-deep depth chart entering the big matchup.
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