The Atlanta Braves (33-36) and New York Mets (36-29) are tabbed for a Monday twin bill at Citi Field. First pitch in Game 1 is slated for 5:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Ian Anderson is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 4-3 with a 3.58 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 through 70 1/3 IP spanning 13 starts.
Anderson is coming off a dodgy outing against the Boston Red Sox Wednesday with 4 ER allowed in 4 IP. He has allowed 4 ER in three of his last four starts, and that stretch kicked off with Anderson allowing 4 runs in as many frames against these Mets May 29. He went into that start with a 2.82 ERA and has logged a 5.59 ERA since.
RHP Jacob deGrom is the projected starter for the Mets. He is 6-2 with a 0.54 ERA, 0.51 WHIP, 14.9 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9 across 67 IP over 11 starts.
DeGrom was removed from his previous outing due to right shoulder soreness, but he’s expected to be available for Monday after a clear MRI. The Mets ace hasn’t allowed an earned run over his last four starts (22 IP), and he hasn’t yielded more than 1 ER in any start this season.
He has fanned 17.4 batters per nine over his last three home starts. Current Atlanta batters own a .608 OPS against him.
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Braves at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Mets -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-135) | Mets -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: 4.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Mets 3, Braves 2
Money line (ML)
The Braves took three of four games from the St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend. For the season, Atlanta is 13-16 on the road and 3-7 over their last 10 games abroad.
The Mets lost three of four games in a weekend series at the Washington Nationals. The NL East’s first-place cub has played .741 ball (20-7) at home; New York is a plus-41 in run differential over those 27 games. The Mets have played 10 series at Citi Field this season and are 8-2 in the opening games of those home sets.
The recent form of these NL East foes, mixed with deGrom and a top-10 Mets bullpen against Anderson and a bottom-10 Atlanta ‘pen, all make for solid value on NEW YORK (-200).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
With the way the Mets play at home, the run-line play is tempting, but the 7-inning format of the game and the quality starters bring in enough gray area. PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
Just enough respect for a shaky Mets offense and plenty of respect for that of the Braves tilt the value here on such a low total. TAKE THE OVER 4.5 (-115).
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