Tag: Astros Red Sox odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Houston Astros (61-55) face the Boston Red Sox (61-54) on Sunday to end their 3-game series. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Astros lead 2-0, winning 5-4 Saturday and 8-4 Friday

The Red Sox hope to avoid the sweep Sunday in the face of a surging Astros team that have won 4 in a row.

Houston jumped out to an early lead on the 1st of  2 HRs by LF Yordan Alvarez. Home runs were common in this game with the teams combining for 6 deep shots, and all but 2 runs coming on homers. Astros rookie RHP Spencer Arrighetti struck out a season-high 13 over 7 IP as Boston batters struck out 15 times in the loss.

Astros at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Hunter Brown vs. LHP James Paxton

Brown (9-7, 3.98 ERA) makes his 23rd start and 24th appearance. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 122 IP.

  • Last start: No decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-3 road loss at Texas Rangers Monday
  • 2024 road stats: 5-4, 4.30 ERA (60 2/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 in 12 appearances (11 starts)
  • First time facing Red Sox

Paxton (9-3, 4.42 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 99 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 9-5 road win at Kansas City Royals Monday
  • 2024 home stats: 4-1, 3.35 ERA (43 IP, 16 ER), 1.37 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 in 8 starts
  • Is 8-5 with a 3.72 ERA in 15 starts vs. Astros

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Astros at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:44 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Astros -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Red Sox +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+120) | Red Sox +1.5 (-145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Astros at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 6, Astros 3

Moneyline

The Astros are 14-17 (45.2%) as a road favorite, which is the 3rd-worst record, higher than only the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox. Boston on the other hand is 10-7 (58.8%) as a home dog, top 5 in baseball.

I like the Red Sox to avoid the sweep.

BET RED SOX (+110).

Run line/Against the spread

Since I am backing Boston in this game, I certainly like them at +1.5. However, I want the value of grabbing them at plus-money straight up, so I will PASS.

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Over/Under

Houston has MLB’s best Under record as a favorite at 49-30-4 record (62%). And while Boston has a 55.6% Over rate during the season, when they play at home it is a less certain 49.1%.

LEAN UNDER 10 (-105).

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Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Houston Astros (60-55) visit the Boston Red Sox (61-53) Saturday afternoon. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Astros lead 1-0.

The Astros have won 3 games in a row after taking down the Red Sox 8-4 Friday and covering as +115 road underdogs. 2B Jose Altuve and C Yainer Diaz each had 2 RBIs while RHP Kaleb Ort allowed 0 ER in 1 1/3 innings to pick up the win.

Boston has lost back-to-back games after Friday’s loss while failing to cover as a -125 home favorite. SS David Hamilton had a team-high 2 RBIs while RHP Lucas Sims allowed 4 ER in 1/3 innings to pick up the loss.

Astros at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Spencer Arrighetti vs. RHP Josh Winckowski

Arrighetti (4-10, 5.33 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 98 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 12 K in 1-0 loss against Tampa Bay Rays Sunday.
  • Debuting April 10th, 2024, Saturday will be his first career appearance against the Red Sox.
  • Home/road splits: 1-6, 6.61 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 10 road starts; 3-4, 4.11 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 11.6 K/9 in 10 home starts

Winckowski (2-1, 3.44 ERA) makes his 6th start and 25th appearance. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 through 49 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: 3 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 14-4 loss at New York Yankees July 6th.
  • He has appeared in 9 games as a reliever since his last start.
  • Career vs. Astros: 0-0, 2.25 ERA (4 IP, 2 ER), 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 3 appearances — last outing in 2023.

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Astros at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Red Sox -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+155) | Red Sox +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Astros at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 7, Astros 5

Moneyline

BET RED SOX (-120).

Boston has scored 4 or more runs in 9 of its last 10 games and is 2-2 in its last 4 home games. It faces Arrighetti, who is just 4-10 this season with a 5.33 ERA. The Astros have scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of their last 10 which will not be enough to keep up with the Red Sox Saturday.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The moneyline is better value for the Red Sox.

Over/Under

BET OVER 10.5 (+100).

Boston has hit the Over in 9 of its last 10 games while scoring 4 or more runs in each of those 9 games. It has scored 6 or more runs in 6 of its last 10 while allowing 5 or more in 8 of its last 10. Houston has allowed 4 or more runs in 7 of its last 10.

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Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Houston Astros (59-55) and Boston Red Sox (61-52) open a 3-game set at Fenway Park Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Astros won 5-2 last year

The Astros won 2 of 3 games at the Texas Rangers, wrapping up the series with a 6-4 victory as -126 favorites Wednesday with the Over (9) barely hitting. LF Yordan Álvarez belted a 117-mph HR, his hardest shot of the year for Houston, which has won 2 straight after enduring a 3-game skid Saturday through Monday.

The Red Sox failed to complete a 3-game sweep at the Kansas City Royals. They lost 8-4 as +124 underdogs in the Wednesday finale as the Over (8.5) cashed. Wednesday’s loss snapped a 3-game win streak for Boston.

Astros at Red Sox projected starters

TBD vs. TBD

RHP Ronel Blanco (9-6, 2.98 ERA) is expected to make his 22nd start. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 124 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 6-1 home defeat vs. Tampa Bay Rays Saturday
  • 2024 road stats: 5-2, 2.87 ERA (53 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 9 starts
  • Never faced Red Sox before

RHP Tanner Houck (8-8, 3.09 ERA) is projected to make his 23rd start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 134 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 7-4 setback at Rangers Saturday
  • 2024 home stats: 4-5, 3.08 ERA (76 IP, 26 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 12 starts
  • Career vs. Astros: 0-1, 3.52 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.91 WHIP, 3.5 K/9 in 3 appearances (1 start), including 0-1 with 5.40 ERA (5 IP, 3 ER) in 1 start last year

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Astros at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:45 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Astros +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Red Sox -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-185) | Red Sox -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Astros at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Red Sox 3

Moneyline

The ASTROS (+115) swept the Red Sox in 3 games during their most-recent series in Boston last year (Aug. 28-30). Houston was an underdog in the 1st 2 meetings and won those by an average margin of 6 runs per game.

The Astros are 4-2 in Blanco’s last 6 road starts, while the Red Sox are 0-3 since the All-Star break when Houck takes the mound.

BET ASTROS (+115).

Run line/Against the spread

Houston +1.5 (-185) should hit, but betting lines with this much vig in MLB makes staying profitable almost impossible.

PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.

Over/Under

The Over has hit in 6 straight for the Red Sox, but this total is set just a bit too high. Blanco has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 6 of his 8 road starts this season, while Houck has given up 3 or fewer in 10 of his 12 outings at home.

BET UNDER 9.5 (+100).

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Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Houston Astros (76-58) close out a 6-game road trip Wednesday with the finale of a 3-game set against the Boston Red Sox (69-64). First pitch from Fenway Park is at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Astros lead 4-2

The Astros have won 4 games in a row, taking down the Red Sox in the first 2 games of the series 6-2 Tuesday and 13-5 Monday. Houston is in a 3-way tie for 1st place in the AL West with the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners. All 3 teams are tied for the 2nd and 3rd AL Wild Card with a 3 1/2 game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Red Sox are 3-6 in their last 9 games and have lost 3 straight games. Boston is in 4th place in the AL East, trailing the Baltimore Orioles by 14 1/2 games, and is 6 1/2 games out of the final AL Wild Card.

Astros at Red Sox projected starters

LHP Framber Valdez vs. RHP Kutter Crawford  

Valdez (9-9, 3.40 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 161 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No decision, 7 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 5 BB, 6 K in 4-1 road loss vs. Detroit Tigers Friday
  • Allowed 4 or more runs in 6 of his last 8 turns

Crawford (6-6, 3.65 ERA) makes his 18th start and 26th appearance. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 101 IP.

  • Last start: No decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 7-4 home loss vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Friday
  • Allowed 2 or fewer runs in 5 of his last 6 starts

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Astros at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Astros -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Red Sox +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+110) | Red Sox +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Astros at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 7, Astros 5

Moneyline

Crawford and Valdez have been on 2 different tracks recently. Crawford has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 5 of his last 6 starts while Valdez has allowed 4 or more in 6 of his last 8.

The Astros, even with a 41-27 road record, have only completed two road series sweeps this season.

BET RED SOX (+115).

Run line/Against the spread

The Red Sox have won outright the last 6 times — and 8 of the last 9 times — they have covered the spread.

The Astros have lost outright the last 6 times — and 8 of the last 9 times — they have failed to cover the spread.

While betting Boston +1.5 (-135) isn’t bad by any means, it is a much better value with the plus odds on the moneyline.

PASS.

Over/Under

Nine of the Astros’ last 11 games have had double-digit runs.

Nine of Boston’s last 10 games and 11 of their last 13 have had 10 or more runs.

BET OVER 10 (-105).

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Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Houston Astros (75-58) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series against the Boston Red Sox (69-63) on Tuesday at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Astros lead 3-2

The Astros defeated the Red Sox 13-5 Monday in the series opener as 2B Jose Altuve and OF Yordan Alvarez both produced 4-hit outings. Houston has won 3 straight games and is now only 1 game behind the Seattle Mariners for the division lead in the AL West and is in possession of an AL Wild Card playoff berth.

The Red Sox were blown out by 8 runs on Monday despite OF Masataka Yoshida tallying 3 hits and OF Adam Duvall hitting a 2-run homer. Boston has lost 3 of its last 4 games and is 5 1/2 games behind the Astros for the final Wild Card spot in the AL.

Astros at Red Sox projected starters

RHP J.P. France vs. RHP Brayan Bello

France (9-5, 3.51 ERA) makes his 19th start and 20th appearance. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 110 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 2 1/3 IP, 10 ER, 11 H, 2 BB, 3 K in a 17-1 home loss in his first career start vs. Red Sox Thursday
  • 2023 road stats: 5-2, 1.92 ERA (51 2/3 IP, 11 ER) in 8 starts and 1 relief appearance

Bello (10-7, 3.56 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 126 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 4 K in a 17-1 road victory opposite France Thursday
  • Home stats: 4-5, 3.41 ERA (66 IP, 25 ER) in 12 starts
  • Career vs. Astros: 1-0, 1.17 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 1 ER) in 1 start and 1 relief appearance

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Astros at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:12 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-185) | Red Sox -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Astros at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 6, Astros 5

Moneyline

I’ll take the RED SOX (-125) Tuesday in this rematch of last Thursday’s affair between France and Bello. While it’s improbable to predict a 17-1 lopsided win for the Red Sox again, Bello should lead Boston to another win at home.

Run line/Against the spread

Even though the Astros should keep this game within 2 runs, I’ll PASS on the run line in this contest. Wagering on Houston’s spread isn’t worth the risk at nearly -190 odds.

Over/Under

OVER 10 (-115) is the play in this game as plenty of runs have been scored when the Astros and Red Sox have squared off this season. There have been 18 runs scored in back-to-back games between these clubs and the Over is 5-0 in their first 5 meetings this season.

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Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (23-13) meet the Boston Red Sox (14-21) in the second game of their 3-game series at Fenway Park with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston won the series opener 6-3 Monday thanks to a 3-run bottom of the 8th-inning rally punctuated by SS Xander Bogaerts‘ 2-run home run.

Houston is 8-2 overall in its last 10 games but has lost 2 of its last 3 outings and Boston is just 4-6 in the last 10 but all 4 of those wins have come in the past 6 games.

Astros at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Jose Urquidy vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi 

Urquidy is 2-1 with a 4.40 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 across 28 2/3 IP over 6 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Houston’s 11-3 road win over the Minnesota Twins Wednesday with 3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 3 K.
  • vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 1.23 FIP with a .177/.222/.265 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA), slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 32.3 K% and 88.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 31 plate appearances (PA).

Eovaldi is 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 40 IP over 7 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Boston’s 5-3 loss at the Atlanta Braves Wednesday with 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 6 K.
  • vs. Astros on the current roster: 5.10 FIP with a .285/.360/.502 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 14.7 K% and 90.6 mph EV in 109 PA.

Astros at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:43 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Red Sox -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-205) | Red Sox -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Astros at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 6, Red Sox 2

Money line

BET the ASTROS (+100) because the starting pitching matchup with the is a toss-up but Houston has a much more reliable bullpen and a more productive lineup.

Boston’s bullpen ranks in the bottom-10 of xFIP, home runs allowed per 9 innings, hard-hit rate and ERA, according to FanGraphs. While Houston’s bullpen is 3rd in ERA, 8th in home runs allowed per 9 innings and 9th in K/BB rate.

The Red Sox are just 10-17 overall vs. right-handed starters and rank 24th in wRC+ (88), 25th in both wOBA (.289) and WAR (1.8). Whereas the Astros rank 3rd in wRC+ (116), 10th in wOBA (.319) and 1st in WAR (8.3).

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Run line/Against the spread

Slight LEAN to the ASTROS -1.5 (+165) ALTERNATE RL, if at all, because Urquidy’s pitching peripherals against Boston are much stronger than Eovaldi’s against this Houston lineup.

The Red Sox are 2-3 RL as home underdogs and the Astros can put this game out of reach in the late innings against Boston’s weak bullpen.

Over/Under

PASS because more cash in the betting market is on the Under but more bets have been placed on the Over, per Pregame.com. This suggests professional bettors see Astros-Red Sox going Under the total while your average Joe sees all the power in both lineups and thinks to himself “take the Over”.

However, the Over has cashed in 7 of the last 9 Astros-Red Sox meetings, Fenway is a hitter-friendly ballpark and the weather forecast is predicting nearly 15 mph winds blowing out to right-centerfield.

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ALCS Game 5: Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox ALCS Game 5 odds and lines, with expert MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros rallied late in Game 4 Tuesday to even up the best-of-seven American League Championship Series against the Boston Red Sox. The two meet again Wednesday with first pitch set for 5:08 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Astros LHP Framber Valdez makes his third start of this postseason. He has allowed 6 ER in 7 IP in the first two, but in the regular season, he was 11-6 with a 3.14 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 134 2/3 IP.

  • Valdez didn’t make it out of the third inning against Boston in Game 1. However, in two starts against the Red Sox back in June, he surrendered just 2 ER across 14 1/3 IP while racking up 18 punch outs.
  • He posted a mediocre 7.1 K/9 on the road this season, but was much stingier with the walks (3.0 BB/9) than he was at home. In total, he put up a strong 2.88 ERA across 11 road starts.

Red Sox LHP Chris Sale has struggled in his first two playoff starts, allowing a total of 6 ER in just 3 2/3 IP. After returning from injury late in the season, Sale made nine starts and went 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 through 42 2/3 IP.

  • In six home starts, Sale recorded a 2.48 ERA and 11.2 K/9 to go along with four homers allowed in 29 IP.
  • In nine career regular season starts against the Astros, Sale boasts a 2.20 ERA and 11.8 K/9 in 65 1/3 IP.

Astros at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:44 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Red Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros +1.5 (-190) | Red Sox -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Prediction

Astros 6, Red Sox 4

Money line (ML)

The Astros need length from Valdez after their bullpen was forced to work 14 innings over the past two nights. He has been giving them that all season, going seven-plus innings in eight of 22 starts and at least five frames in each of his last 13 regular-season outings.

Sale’s surface numbers were strong once he came back, but he wasn’t his usual self as his 28.4% K% paled in comparison to the 36.7% mark he posted from 2017-2019.

He’ll face a stiff test in a Houston offense that led the league in wRC+ vs lefties and whiffed at the lowest rate against them (18.3%). With plus odds, the ASTROS (+105) are the side to take in this one.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Including the playoffs, eight of the 10 meetings between these two teams this year have been decided by four runs or more. Laying nearly 2-to-1 odds for +1.5 runs is a little steep, but the recommended play is to flip it to the alternate line of ASTROS -1.5 (+160).

Over/Under (O/U)

The total has gone over in each of the last seven playoff games for both of these teams. Given how taxed the Houston bullpen is and the fact that Sale hasn’t been as dominant as usual, that trend can be expected to continue.

Look for both offenses to do their part in pushing this total OVER 9.5 (-110).

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ALCS Game 4: Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox ALCS Game 4 odds and lines, with expert MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox meet for Game 4 of the American League Championship Series Tuesday with first pitch scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Zack Greinke is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. Greinke went 11-6 with a 4.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9 through 171 IP over 30 games (29 starts) in the regular season.

  •  Has logged one scoreless inning this postseason in Game 3 of the ALDS against the Chicago White Sox.
  • Owns a 10.22 ERA across four career games (three starts) at Fenway.
  • Logged an 11.74 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over his last four appearances of the regular season, and missed time during that stretch dealing with a neck injury.

RHP Nick Pivetta is the projected starter for the Red Sox. He went 9-8 with a 4.53 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, and 3.8 BB/9 through 155 IP over 31 regular-season games (30 starts).

  • Has made two long-relief appearances in the playoffs in which he allowed 3 ER on 7 H and 3 BB with 11 K over 8 2/3 IP.
  • Last pitched Oct. 10.
  • Posted 5.40 ERA in the regular season at Fenway. Owns a Boeing ERA (7.05) and 1.54 WHIP over his last 37 IP at home.

Astros at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:35 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Red Sox -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros +1.5 (-180) | Red Sox -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Red Sox 6, Astros 4

Money line (ML)

The Boston offense has been on a rampage, and the Red Sox are up two games to one in this series. The Crimson Hose tallied 12 runs in a 12-3 rout Monday in Game 3; that after they scored 9 runs Saturday in Game 2. The Red Sox are 6-2 in the postseason and have scored 6 or more runs six times.

The Game 4 pitching matchup — and the bullpen situation behind the starters — is more in favor of the home nine than it appears to show on paper. Ride the momentum: BACK BOSTON (-135).

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Consider a half-unit rider on the above if you want to take a more aggressive stance on the Red Sox. With a Boston bullpen advantage and a high total, a RED SOX -1.5 (+155) wager has value. The +155 is attractive in the market if nothing else.

Over/Under (O/U)

Each side toted a three-Over streak into this series, and the Over has hit in all three games of the ALCS.

But the tag here nixes any value in getting these teams to 7-for-7: PASS.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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ALCS Game 3: Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox ALCS Game 3 odds and lines, with expert MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox are locked up at a game apiece as the ALCS resumes in Boston Monday night. First pitch is set for 8:07 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Astros RHP Jose Urquidy will be making his first appearance of the 2021 postseason. He was 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 107 IP across 20 starts in the regular season.

  • Notched a season-high 9 strikeouts while allowing 1 ER over 6 IP in his lone start against Boston this year.
  • Posted a 3.86 ERA and 8.0 K/9 across 56 IP over 10 road starts this season.

Red Sox LHP Eduardo Rodriguez makes his third playoff start. He allowed a combined 4 ER in 6 2/3 IP in his first two appearances. Rodriguez was 13-8 with a 4.74 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 157 2/3 IP across 31 starts and one relief appearance in the regular season.

  • He faced Houston twice this season and surrendered 6 ER in 4 2/3 IP in each start.
  • While Rodriguez recorded a strong 11.3 K/9 in his 13 home starts this season, the results weren’t pretty. He was roughed up to the tune of a 5.95 ERA, although a .383 BABIP deserves some of the blame.

Astros at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:17 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Red Sox -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+155) | Red Sox +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Prediction

Astros 6, Red Sox 4

Money line (ML)

Houston has already beaten up on Rodriguez twice, as they often do against left-handers. They lead the league in wRC+ while striking out at the lowest rate (18.3%) against southpaws.

Houston was much better than Boston during the regular season, as their +205 run differential was fourth best in the league and far superior to the Red Sox +80 mark.

The ASTROS (+100) should come out on top and get back in the driver’s seat in this series.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The skills say Rodriguez deserved a better fate this season, but he was prone to blowups at home and is facing a team that already knocked him around twice. The Houston bats should get back on track in this one.

On the other side, Urquidy’s skills didn’t quite support his 3.62 ERA. However, he was able to consistently avoid disasters and allowed more than 4 runs just once in 20 starts. He should be able to limit the damage and allow his team to win by multiple runs, so back the ASTROS -1.5 (+155).

Over/Under (O/U)

In addition to leading the league in wRC+ against lefties, the Astros rank second in runs per game on the road. Meanwhile, Boston scored 5.83 runs per game at home this season, tops in the league, and they were fifth in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching.

This is the highest total either of these teams has had in this year’s playoffs, but for good reason. There may be a lot of offensive fireworks in this one, so side with OVER 9.5 (+105).

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @RuddHQ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (35-26) go for a three-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox (37-25) Thursday at Fenway Park. First pitch is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET (on MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Astros lead 5-1

Houston took the first two games of this series by scores of 7-1 Tuesday and 8-3 Wednesday.

RHP Zack Greinke is projected to start the finale for the Astros. He is 6-2 with a 3.38 ERA (82 2/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 over 13 starts this season.

  • Last outing: Complete-game win, 9 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K in Houston’s 13-1 victory vs. Toronto Blue Jays in Buffalo, N.Y., Friday
  • Career vs. Red Sox: 2-5, 4.60 ERA (43 IP, 22 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 7 starts and 1 relief appearance

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is projected to toe the hill for the Red Sox. He is 5-4 with a 5.59 ERA (58 IP, 36 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 across 11 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K at New York Yankees Saturday – Red Sox won 7-3
  • Career vs. Astros (regular season): 1-3, 7.84 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.89 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 in 5 starts

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Astros at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:35 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Red Sox -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+135) | Red Sox +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Astros 6, Red Sox 2

Money line (ML)

The ASTROS (-115) are the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager – due to a big advantage in the pitching matchup.

Greinke has struggled against the Red Sox in his career, but he is coming off a complete-game victory and is 3-1 with a 2.03 ERA (31 IP, 7 ER) in his last four starts.

Rodriguez is 0-3 with an 8.53 ERA (19 IP, 18 ER) in his last four starts, including a loss at Houston when he yielded 6 earned runs over 4 2/3 innings.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Back the ASTROS -1.5 (+135) with a HALF-UNIT wager. Houston covered the spread in the first two games of this series, and Greinke’s last four wins were each by at least 3 runs.

ATS records: Astros 31-30 | Red Sox 36-26

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 9 (-110) is worth a QUARTER-UNIT bet. The O/U is 1-1 in this series and 2-4 in their six head-to-head meetings in 2021.

AVOID if the line drops below 9.

O/U records: Astros 36-23-2 | Red Sox 28-33-1

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

JOHNNY’S RECORD W-L SP ROI
2021 MLB 61-65-2 19-26-1 -10.835
2020 MLB 80-59-1 39-21 +24.79
2021 (all sports) 167-152-3 70-68-1 +4.275
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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