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The Houston Astros (70-62) and Philadelphia Phillies (78-54) meet for the finale of a 3-game series Wednesday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 4:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Philadelphia leads 2-0
Philadelphia picked up an easy 5-0 win over Houston Tuesday as a -129 home favorite. The Phillies struck first with a 3rd-inning RBI single from SS Trea Turner, who scored later in the inning on a 3-run homer from RF Nick Castellanos. RHP Aaron Nola was credited with the win, allowing just 4 hits and 1 walk with 6 K’s in 7 scoreless innings.
Astros RHP Justin Verlander took the loss, allowing 4 earned runs on 7 hits and 1 walk with 3 K’s in 5 innings. The Astros have lost back-to-back games, while Philly has won 4 straight.
Astros at Phillies projected starters
RHP Spencer Arrighetti vs. RHP Taijuan Walker
Arrighetti (6-11, 4.94 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 116 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 6-0 victory at Baltimore Orioles Thursday
- Never faced Phillies before
Walker (3-5, 6.26 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.58 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 64 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 7-4 defeat at Kansas City Royals Friday
- Career vs. Houston: 5-5, 4.52 ERA (71 2/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 across 14 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Astros at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:49 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+145) | Phillies +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Astros at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Astros 1
Moneyline
LEAN PHILLIES (-110).
Philadelphia is 3-1 in its last 4 home games and has won 4 straight overall, while the Astros are only 2-4 on their current 7-game road trip.
The Phillies have also won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
This is a lean because the Phillies have only played marginally better over the last 10 games — Philadelphia is 6-4 and Houston is 4-6. The last 10 meetings between these teams have also been split 5-5.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I expect the Phillies to cover here as +1.5 (-175) underdogs, but it’s hard to stay profitable betting into -175 run lines in MLB.
I advise betting the ML and/or total instead, but if you prefer, you can divvy up units between the ML and run line.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 9.5 (-115).
The Under has hit in 3 of Philadelphia’s last 4 home games and is 6-4 in its last 10 overall. For Houston, the Under is also 6-4 in its last 10 games overall and 4-2 during this road trip.
The Under has hit in each of the last 9 meetings overall and is 5-0 in the last 5 in Philly.
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