Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, predictions, picks and PGA Tour best bets

Analyzing the golf betting odds to win the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational, with PGA Tour betting odds, picks, predictions and best bets.

Five of the top 10 golfers in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings are in the field this week at Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Fla., for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Eight-time champion and 11th-ranked golfer Tiger Woods won’t be on hand, as he ensures his body is in peak shape for next month’s Masters. Below, we look at the golf betting odds and make our picks to win the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The key stats for the 7,454-yard, par-72 Bay Hill Club and Lodge are:

  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
  • Opportunities Gained
  • Sand Saves Gained
  • Par 3 Efficiency: 200-225 Yards
  • Proximity from 200-plus Yards

My model at Fantasy National looks at the most recent 36 rounds for each golfer in the field.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Picks – Tier 1

(Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez – USA TODAY Sports)

Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 4:15 a.m. ET.

Rory McIlroy (+500)

No one in the field with a minimum of 10 rounds played at Bay Hill has gained more strokes per round than McIlroy’s 2.78, according to Data Golf. The 2018 champ followed it up with a T-6 finish last year, and he tied for fourth in 2017.

He has finished in the top five in each of his last six worldwide events, including a win at the WGC-HSBC Champions. He’ll defend his 2019 Players Championship crown next week.


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Brooks Koepka (+2800)

The books seem to be toying with us by continuing to offer these lofty odds on the former world No. 1. He missed the cut at last week’s Honda Classic following a T-43 at the Genesis Invitational, and has had poor results here with a missed cut in 2017 and 2019. Auto-betting him at these odds is just a good overall strategy because as soon as he wins again, he’s back down to less than 10/1.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Picks – Tier 2

(Photo Credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports)

Joaquin Niemann (+8000)

Niemann ranks second to only McIlroy in my stat model. He’s fifth in the field in opportunities gained and 11th in Proximity from the key distance. He tied for 46th last year, but has since picked up his first PGA Tour win.

Francesco Molinari (+9000)

A $10 bet on the defending champ would return a profit of $900 if he were to go back-to-back. The last golfer to win at Bay Hill in consecutive years was Matt Every in 2014 and 2015, and needless to say, Molinari is the far more accomplished golfer. He ranks second to McIlroy with 2.21 strokes gained per round at this venue in 28 career rounds played.


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Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Picks – Longshots

(Photo Credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports)

Charles Howell III (+10000)

Howell has played 72 career rounds at Bay Hill to rank fourth in the field. He’s coming off a T-53 finish at the WGC-Mexico Championship following a T-59 at the Genesis Invitational, but his experience is worth a shot at these long odds.

Sebastian Munoz (+10000)

Like Niemann, Munoz has a win already in the 2019-20 PGA Tour season. He comes into the week ranked third in my stat model and 76th in the Golfweek rankings. He leads the field in Opportunities Gained and ranks fifth in scoring on the long par 3s.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational field highlighted by four of world’s top 10 players

A strong field has come together for the annual event at Bay Hill Club & Lodge that includes World No. 1 Rory McIlroy.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational won’t include Tiger Woods, but past that, a strong field has come together for the annual event at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. World No. 1 Rory McIlroy leads that list and is one of four of the top-10 players in the world who have committed. McIlroy won this event in 2018.

Brooks Koepka, Adam Scott and Patrick Reed round out the list of top draws in Arnie’s event. The latter two, of course, have already won this year – at the Genesis Invitational and World Golf Championships-Mexico, respectively.

Twenty-eight of the world’s top 50 players are committed.

Defending champion Francesco Molinari will also return to Orlando to attempt a title defense. Molinari and McIlroy make up a group of seven men who are former champions at Bay Hill. Jason Day, Matt Every, Robert Gamez, Marc Leishman and Phil Mickelson also make up that list.

Bryson DeChambeau and Rickie Fowler are also in the field.

Palmer’s grandson Sam Saunders is on the list of sponsor’s exemptions along with a handful of young players including Arizona State senior Chun-an Yu and Brandon Matthews, the former Temple player who memorably showed compassion to a special-needs fan during a PGA Tour Latinoamerica event last year.

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Tiger Woods makes his decision on playing next week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational

Tiger Woods revealed Thursday whether or not he’ll compete in the Arnold Palmer Invitational after two weeks away from competition.

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Tiger Woods will not be making a stop at Arnie’s on his road to Magnolia Lane for his title defense in the Masters.

The five-time Masters champion is still suffering from back stiffness and will not play in next week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, choosing to pass on a tournament where he’s owned Palmer’s Bay Hill course and won a record eight times. Last year, Woods was scheduled to play in the tournament but withdrew with a neck injury.

It will be the third consecutive week Woods will not play.

“Back still stiff and he’s just not quite ready,” Mark Steinberg, Woods’ agent, told Golfweek.

But Steinberg said he was not concerned about the back issue having any lingering impact.

“It’s the new normal,” Steinberg said. “Things are week to week. He’s very much good to go when he’s healthy, and he’s not when he’s a little sore.”

In his most recent start on the PGA Tour, Woods, 44, finished last among the players who made the cut in the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club north of Los Angeles, where he pulled double duty as the host of the event that benefits his foundation.

In his only other start in 2020, he tied for ninth in the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in San Diego.

Woods was bothered by back stiffness at the Genesis Invitational, citing that ailment for opting against playing the following week’s World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship – where he tied for 10th a year ago. He also elected to not play in this week’s Honda Classic near his Florida home.

Woods, mentioning his fused back and overall wear and tear on his body, has often said he will cut back on his playing schedule in an effort to prolong his career. But one has to wonder if he’ll have enough reps – a word he often uses – before he gets to Augusta National.

Last year, Woods played five events leading into the Masters, where he won his fifth green jacket and 15th major championship – the Farmers, Genesis, Mexico Championship, The Players and the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play.

He could still play five events before the Masters, but that seems highly unlikely.

The Players Championship, the PGA Tour’s flagship event he’s won twice, is the week following the Arnold Palmer Invitational, so that seems a probable start.

After the Players is the Valspar Invitational, which he’s only played once, tying for second in 2018. Next up would be the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, where he tied for fifth last year, so that seems a likely start. The last tournament before the Masters is the Valero Texas Open, which Woods has only played in 1996 when he finished third. And he rarely plays the week before a major.

He’s played just eight rounds this year. If Woods were to play The Players and miss the cut and play the Match Play and not make it out of the qualifying rounds, he’d have just 13 rounds under his belt by the time he gets to Augusta.

In a conference call on Tuesday, Woods didn’t reveal his playing schedule.

“My prep has been just like it usually is. It’s, what do I need to do to get ready for the Masters?” Woods said. “I’ve been fortunate to have done this now five times, and to try and have everything peak together for just an incredible week, it’s hard to do. It’s hard to try and get all the shots and have everything dialed in.

“The plan is to prepare the same way. It worked last year, so yeah, I’ve got a blueprint for what I need to do and hopefully I can have the same feelings.”

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Today’s feel-good story: Brandon Matthews receives sponsor’s invite to Arnold Palmer Invitational

Brandon Matthews good deed gets recognized by the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Ever since Arnold Palmer passed away in 2016, the Arnold Palmer Invitational keeps thinking up new ways to keep his memory alive and well at the annual PGA Tour gathering at his Orlando golf club, Bay Hill Club & Lodge. Well, Palmer certainly would have approved of the tournament offering a sponsor’s exemption to Brandon Matthews, who will make his PGA Tour debut at the API in March.

“Words can’t describe how grateful I am for this opportunity,” Matthews tweeted. “I cannot wait to tee it up next week!”

Matthews, 25, and a Pennsylvania native like Palmer, lost the 2019 Visa Open de Argentina title in a playoff after a fan with Down syndrome made a loud noise, distracting him as he attempted a 12-foot putt to extend the playoff to a fourth hole.

“I kind of gave it a little too much right-hand and left it short left. I turned around because I was disappointed at first because I thought someone did it on purpose,” Matthews explained in a video interview posted on the Arnold Palmer Invitational Twitter feed on Thursday. “Once I finally understood it was a middle-aged man with special needs that changed the whole thing because obviously he didn’t mean to do that.”

In a wonderful gesture of grace in defeat, Matthews left the locker room and went and found the fan to give him a hug and sign a golf ball and a glove for him.

“I just wanted to make sure he was all right and it was really important to me to make sure that he was a fan of golf for life and it didn’t leave a bad taste in his mouth and all that,” Matthews said.

“There are some things in life that are just bigger than golf,” Matthews told PGA Tour.com, “and this was one of them.”

Now, Matthews, who has played in three Korn Ferry Tour events this season with a best result of T-38 at the Bahamas Great Abaco Classic, is going to make his Tour debut at Arnie’s Place.

“To get an exemption into this tournament is really special, especially since this is Mr. Palmer’s tournament,” Matthews said. “To be recognized in any light with him is special and any way that I can make people’s lives better, the game better, I’m proud to be a part of that.”

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Tiger Woods skipping Honda Classic, so where will we see him next?

Tiger Woods skipped this week’s WGC-Mexico Championship and he’s done the same for next week’s Honda Classic near his home in Florida.

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Tiger Woods will not be playing a home game.

As of 5 p.m. ET Friday evening, the reigning Masters champion was not on the commitment list for next week’s Honda Classic, played near his home in Jupiter, Florida. Woods last played the Honda in 2018 when he finished 12th.

Woods also opted not to play this week’s World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship, citing back stiffness that bothered him throughout the Genesis Invitational where he finished last among those who made the cut.

A year ago Woods finished in a tie for 10th in the Mexico Championship while never seriously contending for the title. That was one of five tournaments Woods played leading into the Masters, where he won his fifth green jacket and 15th major championship.

Woods, 44, has played just two tournaments this year. He tied for ninth in the Farmers Insurance Open and finished 68th in last week’s Genesis Invitational, where he was pulling double duty as the host of the event that benefits his foundation.

It’s still unknown what events Woods, ranked No. 9 in the world, will play heading to Augusta National and his title defense in April. Last year, Woods played the Farmers, Genesis, Mexico Championship, The Players and the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play.

He also was scheduled to play the Arnold Palmer Invitational but withdrew with a neck injury.

This year, it’s likely he’ll play the Arnold Palmer Invitational in two weeks, a tournament he’s won a record eight times. Next up could be The Players Championship which falls the week after the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Two weeks later is the Match Play. Two weeks after the Match Play is the Masters.

After the final round of the Genesis at Riviera Country Club north of Los Angeles, Woods said he would spend this week training and resting before turning his attention to his golf game.

Woods, who won the Zozo Championship last fall for his record-tying 82nd PGA Tour title, finished at 11-over-par 295 in the Genesis. It was just the second time in his career that he was last among those who made the cut. At the 2015 Memorial, he shot a third-round 85 – his worst score as a professional – before finishing last.

“Well, I did not do much well today. Good news, I hit every ball forward, not backwards, a couple sideways,” he said with a laugh at Rivera. “But overall, I’m done. I was just off. It happens.

“I got a chance to have the week off this week and do a little prep, a little practicing, some training, be at home and all positive things.”

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