Tag: Army preview

Graham Mertz is in the nation’s bottom tier in a key offensive metric

Graham Mertz is in the nation’s bottom tier of a key offensive metric

Quarterback Expected Points Added, or EPA, is a metric that measures how well a team or players perform relative to expectation.

From the The33rdTeam.com:

For example, if a team starts a drive on the 50-yard line, its expected points to start the drive would be about 2.5. If the team ends the drive with a field goal, thus gaining 3 points, its EPA for that drive would be found by subtracting its expected points from how many points it actually gained, 3 – 2.5 or 0.5 EPA.

Say the Chiefs start with the ball first-and-10 from their own 25-yard line, where its expected points would be about 1.06. If Patrick Mahomes throws a 15-yard completion, making it first-and-10 on the KC 40-yard line, where the expected points is now 1.88, the EPA of that play would be 1.88 – 1.06 or 0.82. In other words, that completion increased the Chiefs’ expected points on that drive by just over three-fourths of a point.

The metric can both be positive and negative, as sacks and incompletions contribute negatively to the team and its expected points.

Graham Mertz has been prone to interceptions and tough incompletions this season, enough where Wisconsin struggled to score against every good defense its played.

His struggles have landed him in the nation’s bottom ten in Quarterback EPA, right alongside Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr, Clemson QB D.J. Uiagalelei and a host of quarterbacks on losing Group of Five teams.

This metric is not close to the end-all, be-all for quarterback play. It is just a piece of the puzzle when evaluating how a signal-caller performs. And yes, there are numerous factors that play in including offensive line play, down-and-distance scenarios and the strength of opposing defenses.

But this metric follows everyone’s thinking that Mertz has struggled quite a bit through five weeks this season.

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Army Black Knights: CFN College Football Preview 2021

College Football News Preview 2021: Previewing, predicting, and looking ahead to the Army season with what you need to know.

College Football News Preview 2021: Previewing, predicting, and looking ahead to the Army season with what you need to know.

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Keys To The Season
– What Will Happen, Win Total Prediction
– Army Schedule Analysis
– Army Black Knights Previews
2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015

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2020 Record: 9-3 overall
Head Coach: Jeff Monken, 8th year, 49-39
2020 CFN Final Ranking: 66
2020 CFN Preview Ranking: 99
2019 CFN Final Ranking: 89

Army Black Knights College Football Preview 2021: Offense

– The Army offense was the Army offense. It ran a lot, finished fourth in the nation averaging 273 rushing yards per game, it was third in passing yards per completion, it never hit the 100-yard mark passing, and it seemed to hold on to the ball for forever.

It’s Army, so usually there’s a ton of turnover – but not this year. There’s no super-senior factor happening, but the offense still gets back seven starters and should be every bit as effective, but …

– The offensive line has to replace a few parts. That’s normal for all of the service academies to have a constant turnover and new guys ready to step into roles, but there’s just enough experience around junior C Noah Knapp to to be okay. It’ll get the job done to find the creases for the lightning fast backfield.

Longtime fullback Sandon McCoy is done, but 6-3, 235-pound Cade Barnard is a good blocker who can occasionally bring the thump as a runner.  Jakobi Buchanan is a 260-pound blaster who finished second on the team with 474 yards and six scores – he’ll eat up some of the ten touchdowns of McCoy’s lost production. Throw in 255-pound Anthony Adkins, and power won’t be a problem.

Tyrell Robinson is a 5-9, 180-pound speedster who ripped off seven yards per carry, and AJ Howard is a good veteran who needs the ball more. However …

– It’s Army, so the quarterback is going to run and run some more. Tyhier Tyler is a former slotback who led the team with 578 yards with five scores, all coming in the final seven games of the season. Forget about him as a passer – he hit just 2-of-4 throws for 53 yards – but the 5-8, 185-pounder can handle the workload. Senior Christian Anderson is a better passer, but he’s not the speedster that Tyler is.

For what it’s worth, wide receivers Michael Roberts and Reikan Donaldson are back along with tight end Chris Cameron, but the three combined for just 14 catches. RB Tyrell Robinson led the team with 117 receiving yards and two scores.

– What You Need To Know: Defense
– Top Players | Keys To The Season
– What Will Happen, Win Total Prediction
– Army Schedule Analysis

NEXT: Army Black Knights College Football Preview 2021: Defense

Pages: Page 1, Page 2, Page 3, Page 4, Page 5

College Football News Preview 2020: Army Black Knights

College Football News Preview 2020: Previewing, predicting, and looking ahead to the Army Black Knights season with what you need to know.

College Football News Preview 2020: Previewing, predicting, and looking ahead to the Army Black Knights season with what you need to know.

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– What Will Happen, Win Total Prediction
– Schedule Analysis
– Army Previews 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015

2019 Record: 5-8 overall
Head Coach: Jeff Monken, 7th year, 40-36
2019 CFN Final Opinion Ranking: 114
2019 CFN Final Season Formula Ranking: 89
2019 CFN Preview Ranking: 77

Obviously, no one knows what’s going to happen to the 2020 college football season. We’ll take a general look at where each team stands – doing it without spring ball to go by – while crossing our fingers that we’ll all have some well-deserved fun this fall. Hoping you and yours are safe and healthy.

5. College Football News Preview 2020: Army Black Knights Offense 3 Things To Know

– For this whole thing to work, the running game has to go beyond being very, very good. Army was third in the nation in rushing, and it wasn’t good enough.

By any reasonable standard, rushing for 3,863 yards and 45 touchdowns in a year is special, but that’s all Army does. The entire formula is based around controlling the tempo and games, and not hitting 4,000 yards on the ground for the first time in four years matters.

Leading rusher and quarterback Kelvin Hopkins is gone, as are running backs Kell Walker and Connor Slompka. But it’s Army – there are more options.

CFN in 60 Video: Army Black Knights Preview
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– It all starts at quarterback with 5-9, 185-pound junior Jabari Laws the likely replacement for Hopkins. Laws finished fourth on the team with 484 yards and four scores, and 6-1, 185-pound senior Christian Anderson ran for 429 yards and four touchdowns. There are eight options to choose from with some of the other quarterbacks being used in other ways.

Who’s going to take over for the 240-pound Slomka at fullback? 5-11, 230-pound Sandon McCoy was third on the team with 576 yards and led the way with ten rushing scores. He’s the main man now to pound it up the gut, and 235-pound junior Cade Bernard is back.  On the outside, senior Artice Hobbs is the leading returning tailback, and the gaps will fill in around him.

– The offensive line has a ton of turnover, but that’s normal – the Black Knight offense has a way of building up the talent up front so they’re ready as upperclassmen. 300-pound Peyton Reeder is a good-sized blocker at one guard spot, and 290-pound senior JB Hunter is a solid veteran at center.

6-2, 208-pound Camden Harrison caught 25 passes for 433 yards and three score, making him the program’s top receiver for a season since 2013. 6-3, 235-pound Michael Roberts is also back after catching five passes as more of a short-range target.

NEXT: College Football News Preview 2020: Army Black Knights Defense 3 Things To Know

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