Tag: Army at UMass

5 Best NFL Predictions Against The Spread Week 14

5 best NFL predictions and picks against the spread and point totals for the Week 14 games.

5 best predictions for this week’s NFL slate. What appear to be the best bets and picks for the Week 14 games?

5 Best College Football Predictions Against the Spread NFL Week 14

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Expert Picks
Bowls Dec 16-19: College Week 14: NFL
– Week 14 NFL Schedule, Predictions

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Because I didn’t screw up the world enough with my best college picks against the spread – I was actually hovering over 60% until a late crash brought me down to 55% – here we go with the best-looking NFL picks against the spread.

A slew of the tried-and-true college theories – always go under on a point total over 70, late-season double-digit home dogs – don’t apply here, but don’t worry, There are some NFL versions that are just as wacky.

The 5 Best Bowl Picks, Part 1, coming early next week. First we start with the NFL by going completely off the deep end.

Click on each game for the game preview

5. Houston at Dallas

LINE Dallas -17.5
ATS PICK Houston

Yes, I absolutely buy into the idea of You’re Never Wrong Taking An NFL Underdog theory. But Indianapolis-Dallas happens.

The Colts +11 was the call – just because. That wasn’t Alabama vs Austin Peay. Those were grown men who get paid a lot of money – yes, even more than Alabama – and they usually find ways to keep games from going totally off the rails.

Dallas 54, Indianapolis 19.

However, that took a bizarre 33-point Cowboy fourth quarter to get there. That’s not to say the explosion couldn’t happen against a Houston team that’s dead last in the NFL against the run and now has to deal with Zeke and Tony.

But the crazy part is that the 1-10-1 Texans aren’t getting rocked. They don’t have the talent, and they can’t seem to score, but the biggest loss among the ten was by 18 against Las Vegas. That was because Josh Jacobs decided to single-handedly win everyone’s fantasy week in the fourth quarter with two scores, and then a late pick six sealed the 21-point run to crank up the difference.

Whatever. Dallas has won four of its last six games by 18 or more, it’s playing lights out, Houston can’t do anything right, and …

You’re up 17.5-0 walking into AT&T Stadium on Sunday afternoon at noon local time. If it doesn’t work and the Texans get destroyed, it’s not your fault.

You did things the right way. Lose, and you tip your cap and move on. It’s still the NFL and 17.5 is a ton no matter what.

NEXT: NFL Pick Against the Spread No. 4: New York Jets at Buffalo

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5 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread Rivalry Week Saturday

5 best predictions and picks against the spread and point totals for the Saturday Rivalry Week college football games.

5 best predictions for this week’s college football slate. What appear to be the best bets and picks for the Rivalry Week games on Saturday?

5 Best College Football Predictions Against the Spread Rivalry Week Saturday

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Expert Picks
Week 13: College Week 12: NFL
Week 13 Game Previews 
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC

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Results So Far: 74-63-1

So where did this all go wrong yesterday when I went 1-4 with the 5 Best Rivalry Picks Against the Spread, the Friday version?

I got the one I really wanted – Florida +9.5 against Florida State – and after not worrying about the hook with Arizona giving up 3.5 to Arizona State, I got caught on it in the 38-35 Wildcat win.

The other three? Mountain West games that I knew were flaky, but went there anyway. And no, I’m not over Utah State not covering the 16.5 against Boise State.

There are more to choose from in the Saturday selection, so I’m setting the bar higher. Friday was about as crazy as it gets – it seems like almost all the underdogs played up, with the regrettable misfires of my Utah State and Wyoming picks.

So read on at your own risk. And why?

Did you see Iowa blowing its shot to play for the Big Ten Championship by gagging against Nebraska?

Friday was weird. Saturday should be even zanier, so I’m going to try to control the uncontrollable starting with …

Click on each game for the game preview

5. Army at UMass

LINE Army -19.5
ATS PICK UMass

When in doubt, fall back on the research and what’s staring you in the face. Even if it doesn’t make any sense, at least you can rationalize the pick.

I’m stalling. I don’t want to pick UMass. Ever.

It has yet to beat an FBS team, the passing attack is painfully inconsistent, and the offense scored more than 13 points just three times all year.

Here’s the thing, though. The 34-7 loss to Buffalo was the only time in the last seven games the Minutemen lost by 20 or more.

It’s not like it played all lightweights, either – it lost at Texas A&M by 16, to Liberty by 18, and to UConn – don’t laugh, it’s going bowling – by 17.

Here’s the other glaring thing. Army stinks away from home.

It’s partly because the home slate was so light, but the Knights were 4-2 at West Point. The strongest win was over UConn, they were rocked by Georgia State by 17, and they lost in a shootout with UTSA. Two of the wins were to FCS teams, and one was a 24-point blowout over ULM.

Away from home? 0-4.

The offense only scored more than ten in the 38-28 loss to Coastal Carolina, and now it’s going against a team that’s not totally miserable at running the ball, controlling the clock, and making this a fast game.

Okay, fine. So you’re not going to spend part of your Saturday worrying about UMass. I don’t blame you.

Let me try again with another lousy team vs. another team that can’t play on the road and see if that does it for you …

NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 4: UAB at Louisiana Tech

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Army vs UMass Prediction Game Preview

Army vs UMass game preview, prediction, and breakdown for the Week 13 game on Saturday, November 26

Army vs UMass prediction, game preview, how to watch. Week 13, Saturday, November 26

Army vs UMass Prediction Game Preview

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Army vs UMass How To Watch

Date: Saturday, November 26
Game Time: 12:00 ET
Venue: Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium, Amherst, MA
How To Watch: ESPN+
Record: Army (4-6), UMass (1-10)
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Why Army Will Win

The running game should work again.

It was stopped by Air Force and didn’t do enough against Troy in the 10-9 loss, and then it popped back up again against a bowl-bound UConn team. The Knights ripped off 5.5 yards per carry, controlled the game when they had to, and all was right with the world.

Can UMass stop the run? No.

It allowed 154 yards per game, but that’s partly because everyone is able to balance out the attack against this bunch. It allows close to five yards per carry and gave up more than 5.2 yards per pop five times.

Army is 4-0 when averaging more than 5.2 yards per carry and …

– Bowl Projections | Bowl Bubble: Who’s Bowl Eligible?

Why UMass Will Win

Army is 0-6 when running for 5.2 yards or fewer.

The UMass defense might not be anything special, but it hasn’t been roasted too badly. It’ll give up 200 yards to the Knights, but it likely won’t allow the 300 or so to take over the game.

The third down defense is strong, the offense is great at controlling the clock, and there’s a shot it’s able to beat Army a wee bit at its own game.

The Army D doesn’t get behind the line enough, it’s not good at stopping third down tries, and the run defense allows over 200 yards per game. Along with that …

– Week 13 College Football Schedule, Game Previews

What’s Going To Happen

Army has yet to win a game away from home this season.

It’s 4-2 at West Point and 0-4 on the road or in neutral site games. UMass hasn’t been able to win anywhere – it doesn’t have a victory over an FBS program – but at least it’s finally back in Amherst after not playing a home game since late October.

This game will be FAST – the two running games will keep the clock moving. UMass will keep it close for three quarters, but the Army ground attack will be a wee bit better.

– Expert Picks College Week 13 | NFL Week 12

Army vs UMass Prediction, Line

Army 34, UMass 16
Line: Army -19.5, o/u: 45.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
Army vs UMass Must See Rating (out of 5): 2

CFN 1-131 Rankings | Rankings by Conference
Path to the Playoff: 7 teams still in the race 

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– Bowl Projections | Rankings