The Arlington Renegades (4-4) and the DC Defenders (7-1) meet Sunday in a Week 9 matchup. Kickoff from Audi Field is scheduled for noon ET (ESPN2/ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Renegades vs. Defenders odds, and make our expert XFL picks, predictions and bets.
The Renegades remain in the hunt for a playoff spot, although they no longer can win the South Division after the Houston Roughnecks posted a Week 9 victory Saturday to lock up the title. With a win, Arlington can clinch a postseason berth.
Arlington is coming off a big 18-16 win in Orlando last week, just its 2nd cover in 8 tries. The defense has allowed 16 or fewer points in 3 of the last 4 outings, and the Under is a healthy 7-1 for the Renegades this season.
The Defenders bounced back after a shocking loss to the winless Guardians in Week 7, posting a 34-33 road win against the Seattle Sea Dragons. Defense has been suspect lately, allowing 35.0 points per game (PPG) in the last 2 outings.
The DC offense is humming lately, however, going for 28 or more points in 6 straight games, cashing the Over in each outing.
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Renegades at Defenders odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:53 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Renegades +300 (bet $100 to win $300) | Defenders -400 (bet $400 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Renegades +8.5 (-110) | Defenders -8.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 41.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Renegades at Defenders key injuries
Renegades
- LB Donald Payne (ankle) out
- LB Bunmi Rotimi (knee) questionable
- WR Caleb Vander Esch (head) probable
Defenders
- RB Ryquell Armstead (hamstring) probable
- WR Jaquez Ezzard (hamstirng) out
- LB Anthony Hines (quadriceps) out
- WR Brandon Smith (illness) probable
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Renegades at Defenders picks and predictions
Prediction
Defenders 29, Renegades 23
Moneyline
The Defenders (-400) will cost you 4 times your potential return, and that’s too expensive given how poorly DC’s defense has played. They’re not defending anybody!
The Renegades (+300) are playing for a playoff spot, while DC already has clinched the North Division. If anything, Arlington would be worth a flier for a chance to triple up.
PASS.
Against the spread
The RENEGADES +8.5 (-110) are a solid value. Arlington is 2-1 ATS in the last 3 as an underdog, while the Defenders -8.5 (-110) failed to cover its only instance as a favorite of 7 or more points this season. In fact, DC lost that game outright against Orlando in Week 7 as a 9.5-point favorite.
Over/Under
OVER 41.5 (-110) is the play. Arlington’s offense is a concern, as it hasn’t had more than 18 points since a Week 1 win over Vegas. In fact, the Renegades are averaging just 12.7 PPG in the last 7 games, while cashing the Under in 7 of 8 games.
However, DC’s defense has yielded 35.0 PPG in the last 2 games, and it has allowed 18 or more points in all but 1 outing this season. Plus, the Defenders lead the XFL with 241 points, or 30.1 PPG.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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