Tag: Arizona Diamondbacks odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (23-25) and Arizona Diamondbacks (23-26) meet Tuesday for the 2nd of a 3-game set at Chase Field. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: The Diamondbacks picked up the 6-2 win in the series opener Monday behind RHP Zac Gallen.

The Braves have alternated losses and wins in their last 6 outings. The good news is Atlanta hasn’t dropped consecutive games since May 15-16, and it hasn’t lost to the same team in 2 straight games since May 3 in a doubleheader loss to the New York Mets.

The Diamondbacks snapped a 4-game losing streak with Monday’s win. The Under has cashed in 4 consecutive outings for the D-backs.

Braves at Diamondbacks projected starters

RHP Charlie Morton vs. RHP Humberto Castellanos

Morton (3-3, 5.28 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.53 WHIP, 2.05 BB/9 and 8.32 K/9 in 44.1 IP.

  • Is 2-0 with a 3.48 ERA across the last 4 starts, and Atlanta is 4-0 during those outings.
  • Has a 1-3 record with a 6.75 ERA and .322 opponent batting average in 21.1 IP across 4 road starts.

Castellanos (3-2, 5.22 ERA) makes his 9th start and 11th overall appearance. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 2.27 BB/9 and 6.13 K/9 in 39.2 IP.

  • Coughed up 6 runs, 10 hits and a walk in just 4 innings in Thursday’s loss against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • Is 1-1 with a 5.96 ERA and 4 HR allowed in 22.2 IP in 4 home starts and 6 appearances.

Braves at Diamondbacks odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:42 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Braves -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+100) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Braves at Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 7, Diamondbacks 5

Money line

The BRAVES (-165) are a little on the costly side, although the Diamondbacks (+133) haven’t won consecutive home games against a National League opponent since May 9-10.

Atlanta has posted a 40-15 record in the past 55 games following a loss, and it is 6-2 in the previous 8 as a favorite.

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Run line/Against the spread

The BRAVES -1.5 (+100) are a decent play on the run line at even-money. In each of Atlanta’s last 3 victories it has won by 2 or more runs and 5 of their last 7 wins have also been by at least 2 runs.

Over/Under

The OVER 9.5 (+105) is the lean Tuesday. The Over has cashed in 5 straight games for the Braves following a loss, while going 11-3-1 in the past 15 games as a favorite.

On the flip side, the Diamondbacks have cashed the Over in 5 straight after a victory, while going 17-6-1 in the last 24 meetings against the Braves in Arizona, although the Under did just come in by a half-run in Monday’s opener.

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San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres visit National League West co-tenant Arizona Diamonbacks at Chase Field on Opening Day Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Padres beat the D-Backs in last season’s series 11-8 and outscored them 89-86. San Diego was 4-5 in Arizona.

San Diego had a disappointing 2021 with a 79-83 overall record and missing the postseason despite lofty preseason expectations. The Padres collapsed after the All-Star break, going 26-43 in the second half of the season.

Arizona finished in the basement of the NL West at 52-110, 22.5 games behind the fourth-place Colorado Rockies.

Padres at Diamondbacks: Projected starters

RHP Yu Darvish vs. LHP Madison Bumgarner 

Darvish gets the Opening Day nod for the Padres. He was 8-11 last season with a 4.22 ERA (116 1/3 IP, 78 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.

  • 2021 vs. D-Backs: 0-2 with a 6.65 ERA (23 IP, 17 ER), 32 H, 32 K and 4 BB in 5 starts.
  • vs. D-Backs on the current roster: 3.95 FIP with a .321 batting average (BA), .384 wOBA, .423 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 29.8 K% and 87.9 mph exit velocity (EV) in 114 plate appearances (PA).

Bumgarner is Arizona’s Opening Day starter. He was 7-10 in 2021 with a 4.67 ERA (146 1/3 IP, 76 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.

  • 2021 vs. Padres: 0-1 with a 5.09 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 22 H, 17 K and 4 BB in 3 starts.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster: 6.09 FIP with a .233 BA, .339 wOBA, .545 xSLG, 22.5 K% and 90.9 mph EV in 191 PA.

Padres at Diamondbacks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:31 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Padres -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+115) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Padres at Diamondbacks prediction and picks

Prediction

Padres 7, Diamondbacks 4

Money line

LEAN PADRES (-140) because there’s some reverse line movement (RLM) headed towards Arizona, Darvish is a bit of a wild-card entering 2022 and the Over is my favorite wager in this game.

According to Pregame.com, roughly three-fourths of the action is on the Padres but they’ve been lowered from a -150 ML favorite on the opener down to the current number. RLM is a red flag because why would the sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper? Hmmm.

Also, after the MLB enacted a sticky substance policy on June 21, 2021, Darvish finished 1-9 with a 6.25 ERA (76 1/3 IP, 53) and allowed 2.2 home runs per 9 innings.

However, I’m expecting a bounce-back year from both Darvish and the Padres. Darvish most likely spent all offseason working on his pitching mechanics in a post-sticky substance MLB. Also, San Diego has far too much talent to repeat 2021’s atrocious performance.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because I wouldn’t bet the D-backs +1.5 (-140) to cover and San Diego’s ML. For what it’s worth, the Padres were 21-28 RL as road favorites last season and 33-43 RL in division games. While the D-backs were also 33-43 RL versus NL West foes and 31-32 RL as home underdogs.

Over/Under

BET the OVER 9.5 (-130) since it appears to be the sharp side of the market hence the heavier juice.

Furthermore, there’s a Pros vs. Joe’s scenario in the total market for Padres-Diamondbacks with nearly two-thirds of the money on the Over but a slight majority of the market being on the Under at the time of publishing, per Pregame.com.

More importantly, we don’t know what form we’ll see out of Darvish and Bumgarner’s stuff has declined since his championship years with the San Francisco Giants.

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Seattle Mariners at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Seattle Mariners at Arizona Diamondbacks odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (74-62) visit the Arizona Diamondbacks (45-92) Sunday for a 4:10 p.m. ET first pitch in the finale of their three-game interleague series at Chase Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle won the first two games of the set by a combined score of 14-10 and the Mariners cashed the Over on their 72.5-win season win total with their victory in the series opener.

Season series: Mariners lead 2-0.

RHP Chris Flexen is Seattle’s projected starter. He is 11-5 with a 3.52 ERA (145 2/3 IP, 57 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 through 25 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 4 K in Seattle’s 4-3 home loss to the Houston Astros Monday.
  • 2021 road stats: 5-1 with a 4.55 ERA (63 1/3 IP, 32 ER), 1.44 WHIP and 3.0 K/BB across 11 starts.

LHP Tyler Gilbert gets the start for the D-Backs. He is 1-2 with a 2.93 ERA (27 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 over four starts and three bullpen outings in his rookie season.

  • Last outing: Loss, 7-5, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 4 K Monday at the San Diego Padres.
  • Gilbert’s first MLB start was a no-hitter against the San Diego Padres Aug. 14.

Mariners at Diamondbacks odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners -1.5 (+125) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Mariners 7, Diamondbacks 4

Money line (ML)

BET the MARINERS (-130) for 1 unit because there are so many pro-Seattle situational trends that bode well for the Mariners.

For example, Seattle is 4-0 in its last four games against a lefty starter, 6-0 in the last six games against a team with a winning percentage below .400 and the D-Backs are 1-10 in interleague games this season.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the MARINERS -1.5 (+125) only because I much prefer Seattle’s money line but there are a few reasons to sprinkle on the Mariners with a plus-money payout.

Seattle has the fifth-best cover rate on the road at 40-27 ATS and the Mariners are better in the three most important phases of baseball: starting and relief pitching, and hitting.

However, my preference is to stick with Seattle’s money line but MARINERS -1.5 (+125) will most likely be a winning bet.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-125) for a small wager because these teams have a combined 16-10-1 O/U record in interleague games and have played more to the Over in both of their location-based trends.

Also, we are seeing a little “reverse line movement” as nearly 80% of the bets placed are with the Under, according to Pregame.com but the Mariners-Diamondbacks total has more vig on the Over, which indicates oddsmakers would like more pro-Under money.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (71-62) visit Chase Field Wednesday for the conclusion of their three-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks (44-90). First pitch is scheduled for 3:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego is attempting the series sweep after beating Arizona in the first two games by a combined score of 10-5.

The Padres have won three of their last four games and are tied with the Cincinnati Reds for the second NL Wild Card berth.

Season series: Padres 11-7.

RHP Yu Darvish is San Diego’s projected starter. Darvish is 7-8 with a 3.80 ERA (137 1/3 IP, 58 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 24 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-0, with 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K Thursday against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • Darvish is 0-1 with a 5.31 ERA (20 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.33 WHIP and 9.7 K/BB in four starts against Arizona.
  • vs. Diamondbacks on the current roster (112 PA): 3.52 FIP with a .279 batting average (BA), .352 wOBA, .398 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 34.8 K% and 88.6 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Luke Weaver makes the start for the D-Backs. Weaver is 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA (40 IP, 20 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in eight starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 3 K in Arizona’s 3-0 loss against the Washington Nationals May 16.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster (78 PA): 5.31 FIP with a .260 BA, .356 wOBA, .531 xSLG, 26.9 K% and 89.6 mph EV.

Padres at Diamondbacks odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:11 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -230 (bet $230 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -2.5 (+105) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-130)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Padres 5, Diamondbacks 2

Money line (ML)

PASS even though the Padres have an edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting pitching, bullpen pitching and hitting) because Darvish has been awful since the “spider tack” policy went into effect June 21.

Darvish is 1-6 with a 5.74 ERA (53 1/3 IP, 34 ER), .794 opponent’s OPS and 13 home runs given up in 10 starts since June 21. That said, Weaver is 0-4 with a 5.23 ERA in his last five starts against San Diego dating to 2019 and Arizona’s bullpen ranks in the bottom 10 of xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the ALTERNATE RUN LINE PADRES -1.5 (-135) for a tiny wager because of San Diego’s aforementioned edges and nine of the Padres’ 11 wins over Arizona were by at least 2 runs.

However, these lineups are neck-and-neck in WAR following the All-Star Game and both rank near each other in the bottom 10 of the majors in several advanced hitting metrics.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for a half unit because six of Arizona’s eight games with Weaver on the mound have totaled less than 8.5 runs and Darvish’s best start since June 21 was his Aug. 7 outing against the D-Backs.

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Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (64-64) host the Arizona Diamondbacks (44-86) Saturday for the third game of their four-game series at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

These teams split the first two games with Arizona winning the opener 8-7 and Philly winning Friday 7-6 in extra innings.

Season series: D-Backs lead 4-1.

RHP Humberto Meija makes his second start for the D-Backs. Meija earned a no-decision in his first start Monday with 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 7 K in Arizona’s 6-5 loss at the Pittsburgh Pirates.

RHP Kyle Gibson gets the nod for the Phillies. Gibson is 9-5 with a 3.06 ERA (144 IP, 49 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 23 starts and one relief appearance for Philly and the Texas Rangers.

  • Last outing: Win, 7-4, with 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K Sunday at the San Diego Padres.
  • Gibson lost at the D-Backs Aug. 17, 3-2, with a stat line of 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
  • Stats since joining Philly: 3-2 with a 3.77 ERA (31 IP, 13 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in four starts and one bullpen outing.

Diamondbacks at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:32 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Diamondbacks +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Phillies -205 (bet $205 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-130) | Phillies -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Prediction

Phillies 5, Diamondbacks 1

Money line (ML)

PASS.

Even though I “lean” Philly -205 is too expensive given their 3-7 record over the last 10 games, which includes them getting swept in a three-game series at Arizona from Aug. 17-19.

I also don’t see a lot of value in backing the D-Backs in this spot because the Phillies have a winning record at home and against righty starters.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the PHILLIES -1.5 (+105) for a half unit only because there’s “reverse line movement” in the betting market as both the pros and the Joes are taking Philly’s run line but the line is moving in Arizona’s direction.

The D-Backs are just 10-15 ATS as road underdogs facing a righty starter with a minus-22.2% return on investment and an average score of 3.9-6.4.

Arizona’s bullpen is the only one in the majors that has a lower WAR than Philly’s and the D-Backs relievers also rank dead-last in left-on-base percentage and FIP.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-102) for a half unit because the presumed “sharp” money in the market is backing the Under while the public is betting the Over according to Pregame.com.

Typically, in sports betting, it’s wiser to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the crowd.

Furthermore, the most runs Gibson has allowed in a start for the Phillies was the 3 earned runs he surrendered in his last outing against Arizona. I’m expecting him to put together a quality start against an Arizona lineup that has the fourth-fewest wRC+ in MLB.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (35-80) host the San Diego Padres (66-50) Thursday for the opener of their four-game series at Chase Field with the first pitch scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego had its four-game win streak snapped Wednesday in a series finale loss at home to the Miami Marlins. The Padres have won six of their last 10 games including taking two of three against the D-Backs this past weekend.

Arizona comes in on a four-game losing skid and has won just two of the last 10 games. The Diamondbacks are 38.5 games back of first place in the NL West.

Season series: Padres 8-4.

RHP Yu Darvish is San Diego’s projected starter. Darvish is 7-6 with a 3.43 ERA (128 2/3 IP, 49 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 22 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 12 K in San Diego’s 6-2 victory over the Diamondbacks Saturday.
  • Darvish has notched three no-decisions against Arizona this season (all Padres wins) with a 3.57 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 18 H, 2 BB and 25 K in three starts.
  • vs. D-Backs on the current roster (151 PA): 4.68 FIP with a .286 batting average (BA), .374 wOBA, .365 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 32.5 K% and 88.5 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Taylor Widener makes his 11th start for the D-Backs. Widener is 1-1 with a 4.89 ERA (46 IP, 25 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Arizona’s 6-2 loss to San Deigo Saturday with 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 7 K.
  • Widener is 1-0 against San Diego with a 1.64 ERA (11 IP, 2 ER), 7 H, 5 BB and 12 K in two starts.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster (50 PA): 6.34 FIP with a .220 BA, .367 wOBA, .518 xSLG, 28.0 K% and 89.9 mph EV.

Padres at Diamondbacks odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:05 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -2.5 (+105) | Diamondbacks +2.5 (-130)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)

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Prediction

Padres 8, Diamondbacks 3

Money line (ML)

PASS with a “lean” to the Padres (-220) because San Diego is definitely the right side but a little too expensive to wager on. That said, the Padres have a significant edge in the three most important phases of the game (bullpen and starting pitching and hitting).

Also, both the Pros and Joes are hammering the Padres in this spot. More than 90% of the action at the time of publishing is on San Diego’s money line according to pregame.com. This has caused oddsmakers to move this number up greatly from the Padres laying -170 on the opener.

If you are leery about laying it with the Padres (-220) then I’d recommend only risking 1 unit on San Diego’s money line instead of betting to win 1 unit. For instance, if your standard wager is $100 then put that on the Padres (-220) to hopefully earn a profit of $45.45.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the ALTERNATE SPREAD of PADRES -1.5 (-135) for a half unit only because of how pricey this run line is. However, Arizona’s lineup is bottom 5 in several advanced hitting metrics and the D-Backs bullpen is also bottom 5 in most advanced pitching categories.

Moreover, Darvish has struggled in general since MLB’s pitching substances policy went into effect June 21. However, he has looked awesome in his two starts vs. Arizona since then.

For instance, Darvish’s two highest scored starts since June 21 came against the D-Backs and he’s had 1.61 or lower FIP in both outings.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (+110) for a half unit because despite Darvish’s reputation as a “top of the rotation” starter he’s really struggled since the “Spider Tack” memo dropped June 21. The Padres are 14-8 O/U in his starts.

Furthermore, these teams have a combined 53-44-4 O/U record in division games, San Diego is 20-17 O/U as a road favorite, Arizona is 23-16-2 O/U as a home underdog and the Padres-Diamondbacks have played to the Over in five of their last seven meetings.

My hesitation with the Over here is we are getting to the number very late since this game opened with an 8.5-run total before the market steamed it up to the current number.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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