The Arizona Diamondbacks (54-44) play the 2nd game of their 3-game series at the Cincinnati Reds (53-46) Saturday. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead series 1-0
The Diamondbacks are 4-10 in their last 14 games and 2-5 on their current road trip — which began after the All-Star break. Arizona did take 2 of 3 at Atlanta earlier in the week but were unable to complete a 3-game sweep, losing 7-5 on Thursday. The Diamondbacks lost Friday’s opener as +100 underdogs vs. the Reds 9-6. Entering Saturday, Arizona is 3 games back of the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Reds have won 3 straight to follow a 6-game losing streak. Rookie SS Matt McLain hit his 1st career grand slam in Friday’s win, helping the 2nd-place Reds move within 1½ games of the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Diamondbacks at Reds projected starters
TBD vs. LHP Brandon Williamson
Arizona hasn’t officially named its starting pitcher, but all signs point to rookie RHP Brandon Pfaadt (0-3, 9.82 ERA). The Louisville native, who has been up and down between the D-backs and Triple-A Reno, is expected to get called up Saturday for his 7th start of the season for the big-league club. Through the 6 starts, he has a 1.87 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 25 2/3 innings.
- Last start for Arizona: Loss, 2 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 6-1 home loss to Tampa Bay Rays June 29
- Last start for Reno: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 6-4 road win at Triple-A Las Vegas (A’s) Sunday
- Last 2 starts for Arizona: 0-2, 17.47 ERA (5 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 15 H, 2 BB, 7 K
Williamson (1-2, 4.96 ERA), also a rookie, makes his 12th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 52 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 4-2 home loss to San Francisco Giants Monday
- Reds have lost 3 of his last 4 outings, but are 7-4 in his 11 starts
- Home splits: 0-1, 4.96 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 6 starts
Diamondbacks at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:32 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Reds -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-185) | Reds -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a Draft Prep or full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 4/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!
Diamondbacks at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 6, Diamondbacks 4
Moneyline
The trends don’t look good for Arizona. The Diamondbacks have lost 6 of their last 8 games and 10 of their last 14, while Pfaadt has struggled in the majors, allowing 5 or more earned runs in 4 of his 6 starts.
Meanwhile, the Reds have been very streaky recently. They won 6 of 7 games, then lost 6 in a row and now have won 3 straight. Despite an 0-1 showing in July, Williamson has been solid, posting a 2.57 ERA (14 IP, 4 ER) in 3 starts this month.
The -120 line is not a bad bet at all to go with the Reds here, but their ATS record (mentioned below) makes the run line a good and more profitable bet.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The Reds lead the majors with a 63-36 ATS mark and they enter Saturday on a 4-0 ATS win streak. They are 5-3 ATS since returning from the All-Star break.
The Diamondbacks are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games but are 54-44 ATS overall and 30-18 ATS on the road — the away ATS record ranks 4th in the majors.
All 3 of Pfaadt’s MLB starts were by multiple runs — 6-2, 7-2 and 6-1. Plus, Arizona’s last 7 losses overall have been by 2 or more runs.
BET REDS -1.5 (+150).
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Over/Under
Several trends point to an UNDER winner, here.
Four of the Diamondbacks’ last 5 games have had more than 11 total runs.
None of Pfaadt’s last 5 starts have reached 11 runs.
Four of Williamson’s last 6 outings have had fewer than 11 runs.
Seven of the Reds’ last 9 have not reached 11 runs
BET UNDER 10.5 (+100).
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Jess Root on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]
