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Golfweek’s Adam Schupak recaps Bryson DeChambeau’s win from Bay Hill at the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Golfweek’s Adam Schupak recaps Bryson DeChambeau’s win from Bay Hill at the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Analyzing the best fantasy golf options for the 2020 Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. Can world No. 1 Rory McIlroy defend his title?
TPC Sawgrass welcomes the world’s best golfers for the 2020 Players Championship. The 144-man field is annually the strongest of the PGA Tour season, and Tiger Woods is one of just four golfers from the top 50 of the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings not in attendance this week. Here, we look at the top 30 fantasy golf options for The Players Championship.
TPC Sawgrass measures 7,189 yards and plays to a par of 72. Each of the last 11 winners finished 10-under par or better.
Here are my top-30 fantasy golf rankings for the 2020 Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass.
The Puerto Rico Open winner has struggled since what was expected to be an ice-breaking victory in the alternate event. He missed the cut at the difficult Honda Classic and tied for 42nd last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Also see: The Players Championship odds, predictions, picks and PGA Tour best bets
Poulter ranks fifth in this field with 58 career rounds played at TPC Sawgrass, according to Data Golf. He has gained an average of 1.33 strokes per round in that time. He was a co-runner-up in 2017 but finished just T-56 last year.
Hatton picked up his first career PGA Tour win last week while surviving difficult conditions at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, but he missed the cut at Sawgrass each of the last two years.
The reigning Open champion missed the cut here three of the past five years but will enter as a major champ for the first time. He’s among the best in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green.
The winner of the 2020 Farmers Insurance Open popped back up on the leaderboard last week and finished as the lone runner-up to Hatton. His putter is the only thing that can hold him back, and when it’s been on, he’s been a top finisher.
The PGA Tour rookie debuts at TPC Sawgrass ranked No. 27 in the Golfweek rankings. He tied for 15th last week amid a horrible putting performance while his tee-to-green and approach games were nearly perfect.
Ancer’s top finish of 2020 thus far was a runner-up result at The American Express, but he also tied for sixth in a strong field at the European Tour’s Saudi International. He ranks near the top of the field in Proximity from 125-150 Yards, a key distance for second shots at TPC Sawgrass.
Morikawa had a disappointing weekend at Bay Hill, but he still finished inside the top 10 for the first time in a full-field event in 2020. He’s now up to 21 consecutively made cuts for the longest active streak on the PGA Tour.
Kuch, the 2020 Players champ more recently tied for third in 2016. He hasn’t finished higher than T-17 in the three years since, but he has 50 career rounds played here to rank among the most experienced in the field.
Stenson missed the cut last year and in 2016, but he has finishes of T-17 in 2015, T-16 in 2017 and T-23 in 2018. He ranks second in my stat model at Fantasy National in Greens in Regulation Gained over the last 36 rounds played by everyone in the field on courses shorter than 7,200 yards.
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Rose missed the cut at Bay Hill and PGA National in each of his last two events to slip to No. 28 in the Golfweek rankings. He struggled with the flat stick last week and would have at least made it to the weekend with an average putting performance.
Finau missed the cut back-to-back in 2016 and 2017, but he has responded with a T-57 finish in 2018 and a T-22 result in 2019. He missed the cut last week at Bay Hill, but he hasn’t missed the cut in back-to-back weeks since missing three straight from last year’s Memorial Tournament through the Travelers Championship.
Woodland has strung together consecutive strong results. He tied for 12th at the WGC-Mexico Championship before a T-8 result at the Honda Classic. The US Open winner tied for 30th here last year.
Day would be higher in these rankings if not for the back injury which forced his withdrawal at Bay Hill last week. The Aussie won in 2016 and has a T-8 and T-5 finish the last two years. He remains among the best in any field in SG: Around the Green.
Yet another recent first-time winner in this year’s field, Im missed the cut in his TPC Sawgrass debut last year. His best putting performances have come on Bermuda greens over his career, and he has been extremely strong off the tee the last two weeks.
Fowler bounced back from a missed cut at PGA National to finish T-18 last week. He won here in 2015, but he missed the cut two of the last four years.
Betting Koepka right now means banking solely on pedigree, which is never a bad idea. His best finish in the last five years was a T-11 in 2018, and he finished just T-56 last year. He hasn’t finished inside the top 10 in any global event since the Tour Championship, but he is Brooks Koepka.
Schauffele debuted with a T-2 in 2018 but missed the cut last year. He has made the cut in four of five events to open 2020, but he has a top finish of just T-14 in Mexico.
Casey is one of the top statistical fits by my stat model, but the veteran Englishman has struggled at TPC Sawgrass over his career. He has gained just 0.39 strokes per round across 29 rounds, and he missed the cut last year.
Cantlay returns from an injury absence to play for the first time since a T-17 result at the Genesis Invitational. He missed the cut last year following T-22 and T-23 finishes in 2017 and 2018, respectively.
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Reed has had a pedestrian run at TPC Sawgrass. While he has made the cut four of the last five years, his top finish was a T-22 in 2017. He’s the most recent winner of a WGC event in a comparable strength of field.
DeChambeau has strung together three straight top-five finishes in 2020. He’s played here each of the last two years with a T-37 in 2018 and a T-20 last year.
The 2018 champ has 15 top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour since, including his 2020 win at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
Scott won here in 2004. He already claimed victory at the Genesis Invitational to start his 2020 campaign, after closing out his 2019 season with a win in the Australian PGA Championship.
Matsuyama does well in the stadium setting of TPC Sawgrass and TPC Scottsdale. He has a T-7 and T-8 finish in the last four years.
Fleetwood has gained more strokes per round at TPC Sawgrass than anyone else in the field with at least 10 rounds played at 2.34 strokes per round. He tied for fifth last year after a T-7 in 2018 and needs his breakthrough win.
Rahm tied for 12th last year for his best result in three trips to TPC Sawgrass. He took the last two weeks off for rest following a T-3 in Mexico and T-17 at the Genesis Invitational.
Johnson picked up his best result in The Players Championship last year with a T-5. He has been largely unimpressive early in 2020, but he remains an elite scorer on these shorter courses.
Since finishing T-3 in 2016, Thomas has finished T-75, T-11 and T-35 the last three years. His putter has been shaky early in the year, though he’s a contender anytime it doesn’t cost him strokes.
The defending champ has seven straight top-five results in global events and five straight fifth-place finishes on the PGA Tour. His putter cost him again last week; however, he gained 0.7 strokes on these greens last year and he only needs to be average with the flat stick.
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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
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Golfweek’s Adam Schupak discusses the first round at Bay Hill.
Golfweek’s Adam Schupak discusses the first round at Bay Hill.
Analyzing the best fantasy golf options for the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge.
Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Fla., hosts a field of 121 golfers for this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Rory McIlroy, the 2018 champion, highlights those in attendance as the No. 1 golfer in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings. Below, we look at the top fantasy golf options for the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Also see: Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, predictions, picks and PGA Tour best bets
Bay Hill measures 7,454 yards and plays to a par of 72. Each of the last eight winners finished 11-under par or better.
Here are my top-30 fantasy golf rankings for the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge.
Vijay ranks second to Davis Love III in this week’s field with 94 career rounds played at Bay Hill and he has gained an average of 1.79 strokes per round to lead all golfers with a minimum of 70 rounds played, according to Data Golf. He missed the cut each of the last four years, but he was a three-time winner on the PGA Tour Champions circuit in 2018.
Steele is coming off a fourth-place finish at the Honda Classic at PGA National. He had a dominant tee-to-green game at the more difficult course. He tied for 17th here last year.
Munoz leads this field in opportunities gained over everyone’s last 36 rounds. He’s also fifth in the field in scoring on long par 3s ranging from 200-225 yards which are featured at Bay Hill.
Niemann is coming off missed cuts at the Genesis Invitational and the Honda Classic. He’s now six months removed from his first career win at A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier in September. He’s still giving himself scoring opportunities but has suffered from some awful putting performances.
Ancer missed the cut here in his debut last year. He enters the week ranked 37th in the Golfweek rankings, and he had a strong 12th-place finish at the WGC-Mexico Championship two weeks ago. He can compete in these elevated status fields.
Horschel has made the cut here each of the last seven years, albeit with a top finish of T-13 in 2017. He’s a good putter on Bermuda greens and tee-to-green play has been a strength in his last three events.
Bello tied for third last year in his Bay Hill debut. He tied for 17th in a strong field at the Genesis Invitational and tied for 16th in Mexico.
Watson has made the cut here each of the last three years but without a considerable amount of success. His best finish in that time was a T-17 showing last year. He opened 2020 with two top 10s but has slipped in his last two outings.
Hatton tied for fourth in 2017 but has had more middling finishes the last two years. He tied for sixth in Mexico and will play his first event in the USA of 2020.
The defending champ is one of my favorite betting picks this week at inflated odds of +9000. He has been horribly out of form with three straight missed cuts leading into a T-53 result in Mexico, but the former Open champion can turn it around at any time and he has the course history.
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Fitzpatrick was the lone runner-up here a year ago following a missed cut in 2018. He’s one of the top putters on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda grass, and he has been dominant from tee-to-green since this time last year.
The Puerto Rico Open champ missed the cut last week, but he’s statistically a much better fit to Bay Hill than PGA National. He shares the field lead in Opportunities Gained and ranks sixth in the class in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Westwood gave it a go at PGA National last week and gained 7.0 strokes putting. He has gained an average of 0.87 total strokes per round at Bay Hill for his career, but he hasn’t played here any of the last five years.
Rose finished as the runner-up to Tiger Woods in 2013 for his best career finish at Bay Hill. He tied for ninth in 2016 and finished alone in third in 2018 before a T-63 result last year. He can score, and he’s good from the sand.
The 2017 champ of Bay Hill picked up his first win of 2020 at the Farmers Insurance Open. He struggled at the Genesis Invitational and the WGC event, but he’s a much better putter on Bermuda grass and could return to form.
Finau skipped this event each of the last two years, but he’s a good fit with a strong tee-to-green game. He has been off since a 51st-place result at the Genesis, but he has two top 10s already this season at the Farmers and Waste Management Phoenix Open.
Stenson is one of four golfers in this field averaging at least 2.15 strokes gained per round at Bay Hill for their career. He has plenty of experience here, with 42 career rounds under his belt near his North American home. He has three top-five results in the last five years.
Fowler was one of the many notable names to miss the cut last week at PGA National. It was his second MC in his last three events, now matching his number of top-10 showings in 2020.
Day continues to play sporadically. He’s coming off a missed cut at the Genesis on the heels of a fourth-place result at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The 2016 champion was forced to withdraw last year.
Morikawa remains the safest bet on Tour to make the cut, always propping up his fantasy value. He’s fifth in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green, and he enters the week seventh in the Golfweek world rankings.
Last week’s winner captured his first PGA Tour title while gaining just a single stroke on the greens. He led the field with 3.07 strokes gained per round tee-to-green and can rely on that strength once again at Bay Hill.
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An tied for fourth last week to continue what has been a strong season to date. He remains in search of his first PGA Tour win, but he has made the cut in four straight events, all in strong fields. Like Im, his tee-to-green game has been doing the heavy lifting, and he’s one of the best on Tour around the greens, except for putting.
The WGC-Mexico champ tied for seventh at Bay Hill in 2018 before a T-50 result last year. Putting was his main reason for success in Mexico, and he’s much worse on Bermuda grass than Poa Annua.
Having slipped to No. 17 in the Golfweek rankings, it’s tough to remember Koepka being in as poor of form as he’s been in since finishing fourth at the Tour Championship. He has two missed cuts and a withdrawal in his last six events, and he has poor course history here. Still, he can turn it on whenever he wants.
The Genesis Invitational champ followed it up with a 26th-place result in Mexico before taking last week off. His best showing here in the last five years was a T-12 in 2016, but he’ll look to follow the prior success of fellow Aussies Leishman and Day.
DeChambeau was the runner-up in Mexico following a T-5 showing at the Genesis. Tee-to-Green has been the best part of his game, but he’s also a great sand player and can escape the trouble of Bay Hill.
Matsuyama ranks second in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green over everyone’s last 36 rounds, and he’s fourth in Opportunities Gained. His best result here was a T-6 in 2016.
Schauffele has surprisingly not played here as a professional. He’s a natural course fit, however, with a strong tee-to-green game and he was excellent on approach while finishing T-14 in Mexico.
Fleetwood again came close to his first career PGA Tour win last week, as he finished solo third at PGA National. He tied for third at Bay Hill last year, and he gained 9.0 strokes tee-to-green last week.
McIlroy’s 2.78 strokes gained per round are more than anyone else in the field with a minimum of five rounds played at Bay Hill. He hasn’t finished worse than last year’s T-6 in the last three years at this event and he has finished in the top five at each of his last six worldwide events.
Follow @EstenMcLaren and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
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Analyzing the golf betting odds to win the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational, with PGA Tour betting odds, picks, predictions and best bets.
Five of the top 10 golfers in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings are in the field this week at Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Fla., for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Eight-time champion and 11th-ranked golfer Tiger Woods won’t be on hand, as he ensures his body is in peak shape for next month’s Masters. Below, we look at the golf betting odds and make our picks to win the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
The key stats for the 7,454-yard, par-72 Bay Hill Club and Lodge are:
My model at Fantasy National looks at the most recent 36 rounds for each golfer in the field.
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 4:15 a.m. ET.
No one in the field with a minimum of 10 rounds played at Bay Hill has gained more strokes per round than McIlroy’s 2.78, according to Data Golf. The 2018 champ followed it up with a T-6 finish last year, and he tied for fourth in 2017.
He has finished in the top five in each of his last six worldwide events, including a win at the WGC-HSBC Champions. He’ll defend his 2019 Players Championship crown next week.
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The books seem to be toying with us by continuing to offer these lofty odds on the former world No. 1. He missed the cut at last week’s Honda Classic following a T-43 at the Genesis Invitational, and has had poor results here with a missed cut in 2017 and 2019. Auto-betting him at these odds is just a good overall strategy because as soon as he wins again, he’s back down to less than 10/1.
Niemann ranks second to only McIlroy in my stat model. He’s fifth in the field in opportunities gained and 11th in Proximity from the key distance. He tied for 46th last year, but has since picked up his first PGA Tour win.
Francesco Molinari (+9000)
A $10 bet on the defending champ would return a profit of $900 if he were to go back-to-back. The last golfer to win at Bay Hill in consecutive years was Matt Every in 2014 and 2015, and needless to say, Molinari is the far more accomplished golfer. He ranks second to McIlroy with 2.21 strokes gained per round at this venue in 28 career rounds played.
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Howell has played 72 career rounds at Bay Hill to rank fourth in the field. He’s coming off a T-53 finish at the WGC-Mexico Championship following a T-59 at the Genesis Invitational, but his experience is worth a shot at these long odds.
Like Niemann, Munoz has a win already in the 2019-20 PGA Tour season. He comes into the week ranked third in my stat model and 76th in the Golfweek rankings. He leads the field in Opportunities Gained and ranks fifth in scoring on the long par 3s.
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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
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