Tag: Analytics

Though both open and contested 3s have …

Though both open and contested 3s have risen as a proportion of overall shots over time, so far this season, we have seen a somewhat sizable increase in contested 3-point attempts while for the first time there has been a decline in uncontested attempts, at least as a proportion of shots. So what gives? Given the continued rise in 3-point attempts (entering Wednesday’s games, 37.3% of all shots had been 3s, up from the all-time record of 35.8% in 2018-19), increased aggressiveness on the part of shooters almost has to be a major component, though the degree to which defenses are more effectively closing out to shooters is less clear.

More interesting is looking at shooting …

More interesting is looking at shooting propensities early in the shot clock. While with the clock running down we could more easily ascribe a rise in contested shots to more effective closeouts as offensive players dealt with teammates dealing them “live grenades” at the end of the 24. With the element of shooter choice removed, or at least reduced by the need to get an attempt up, that’s a plausible story. However, late clock contested 3s have held steady at around 4% of all shot attempts since 2013-14. However, contested 3s earlier in the shot clock have risen sharply.

Brown has a bigger role again. Head …

Brown has a bigger role again. Head coach Brad Stevens inserted him into the starting lineup from Day 1. Through nine games, the Celtics lead the NBA with an 8-1 record and a plus-9.5 net rating. Brown is averaging 19.8 points and 7.2 rebounds per game on 53 percent shooting. Those marks would all establish career highs. He has lived near the rim so far — which he called a conscious decision — but he does not want to pigeonhole himself into a slashing style. If teams start backing up, he says, he may need to start lacing 3-pointers again. “The media or analytics, they always try to put you in a box and say this is the type of player he is or this is the type of player,” Brown says. “I don’t think anybody knows what type of player I am. I can try to continue to grow and get better. In two years I might be improved at anything just because I work on my game that way.”

Everything looks pretty smooth so far. …

Everything looks pretty smooth so far. Westbrook is generating 17.1 potential assists (fourth in the league) and Harden is at 16.0 (sixth). And out of the 79 players with at least 50 assist opportunities this season, Harden’s passes are generating the second-best shot quality with a 61.9 expected eFG%. Westbrook ranks No. 19, according to Second Spectrum data. That’s encouraging stuff. So, both are still creating a bunch of looks for their teammates, but Westbrook has become the leading shot creator. In a vacuum, this is a stunning development. But it also serves as a reminder that those seeking to reduce Westbrook’s entire game to high-usage, low-efficiency chucking are doing it wrong. The passing numbers don’t lie; he’s a great catalyst.

In each of the three previous seasons, …

In each of the three previous seasons, the team paired a great offense with a decent defense and ended up in the top five of net rating. So far this season, the defense is poor enough that Houston is struggling to outscore opponents. Therefore Westbrook optimists must lean on the hope that this team will get better with time, and to be fair, that’s distinctly possible. Just look at last year’s team for precedent. In 2018-19, the Rockets ranked 25th in defensive efficiency before the All-Star break. Then they flipped the switch, ranking second in that category after the break. This year’s group has the talent and the time to make the defensive improvements necessary to become legitimate contenders. But will they?

Through nine games, the Spurs are 29th …

Through nine games, the Spurs are 29th in the portion of their shots that come from beyond the 3-point line, with just 28.8 percent of them being 3s compared to the league rate of 37.3 percent. Conversely, they’re first in the portion that comes from between 10 feet and the 3-point line, and takes these shots nearly twice as often as the average team. Whereas Houston takes more than seven 3-pointers for every long 2, the Spurs are the league’s only team that prefers long 2s to 3s. (see chart below)