Tag: Analytics

Rim protection is the start of Holmes’ …

Rim protection is the start of Holmes’ contribution. He averages 1.4 blocks per game this year but the effect of his pogo-stick energy in the paint goes beyond that. That’s true of all his traditional stats. Holmes is averaging 11.3 points, which ranks 30th among centers. His 8.2 rebounds rank 24th. While the mark of a good modern center may be the ability to stretch the floor with 3-point attempts, Holmes has yet to attempt one this year and has not shot a 3 since March 2018. Those stats only scratch the surface of Holmes’ impact on the Kings.

First things first — 3-pointers barely …

First things first — 3-pointers barely produce any more points than 2-pointers, on average. The league hits 35.2 percent of its 3s and 52.0 percent of its 2s last season, meaning both shots produced nearly identical expected returns – 1.04 points for 2s, 1.06 points for 3s. From that perspective, giving an additional shot for a shooting foul on a 3-pointer compared to a 2-pointer makes no sense — the shooter wasn’t likely to score more points on the initial shot.

In fact, check this out: That return on …

In fact, check this out: That return on a three-shot foul is so excessive that, on average, committing one is about as bad as committing a flagrant! The second shot on a flagrant can’t be rebounded, so the two shots on average are worth 1.53 points for the offense. The team then inbounds on a dead ball, which is the lowest efficiency initial condition for offense – yielding 1.07 points per possession last season, according to our Seth Partnow. That brings our total for the trip to 2.60 points. So a three-shot foul hands the offense 2.56 points on average … and a flagrant gives it 2.60. It’s basically the same. Yikes.

So, summing it all up: The three-shot …

So, summing it all up: The three-shot foul creates a massively disproportionate penalty to the crime committed, on a play type that officials have difficulty calling correctly. It also likely creates more contact and injury potential rather than reducing it, and incentivizes both boorish behavior and stylistic monotony that make the game less entertaining. The league can go back to three shots in the final two minutes to eliminate intentional fouling incentives late in games; we already have several other rules that change in the last two minutes. But for the first 46 minutes, it’s clearly a bad rule.

Turning more of the offense over to …

Turning more of the offense over to Gordon and Jonathan Isaac would give Orlando, potentially, more flexibility and dynamism in creating mismatches to exploit. Isaac has been the team’s best player this season, but with most of that value concentrated on defense; the former lottery pick is still only averaging 12.1 points and 1.6 assists per game while posting a lower usage rate than every other Orlando rotation player except Al-Farouq Aminu. The Magic could do well to target him more regularly to see if his third-season breakout can encompass both sides of the ball.

The second issue is Orlando’s lack of …

The second issue is Orlando’s lack of shooting, which manifests in a league-worst 3-point percentage: a ghastly 28.5 percent. More than bad luck, this result stems from a roster built with poor shooters. Using each player’s career 3-point performance before this season to predict how many 3s they’d expect to have made so far, Orlando’s “expected” 3-point percentage so far would be 33.5 percent—certainly better than where they sit now, but still a mark that would rank near the bottom of the league. Players like Terrence Ross and Vucevic have started cold from deep, but when half of the guard rotation is Markelle Fultz and Michael Carter-Williams, it’s hard to expect too many long-range fireworks.

So far, the Magic have certainly scored …

So far, the Magic have certainly scored more effectively, though not exactly well, with Fultz on the floor. With him in the game, Orlando is putting up 104.1 points compared to 92.8 when he’s on the bench. Exactly why is a little tougher to parse out. Obviously, the team is making more shots with Fultz in the game, (30.6 percent 3FG% when he’s in the game compared to 26.0 percent when he’s not) while turning the ball over slightly less frequently (12.3 TO/100 compared to 14.1/100).

Moving on from lack of shooting …

Moving on from lack of shooting ability, the Magic also don’t generate a ton of easy points. They sit 28th in free-throw attempt rate, a familiar position as the team has finished in the bottom 10 in this metric every season since 2012-13. Drawing fouls is a repeatable skill, which, unfortunately for the Magic, no one on the roster really possesses. Of the team’s high rotation players last season, Aaron Gordon got to the line most frequently with 4.6 FTA/100 possessions played, 176th of 299 players appearing in at least 50 games last year.