Tag: Alabama Football

College Football Playoff projection: Alabama’s chances still high after LSU loss

The Crimson Tide still have a ridiculously high chance to make the playoff.

If you thought Alabama’s Week 11 loss to LSU on Saturday would severely damage the Crimson Tide’s chance of making the College Football Playoff this year, we have some bad news.

Although it did take a sizable hit, Alabama still has a 40 percent chance to make the playoff but only a nine percent chance to win it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. Those numbers plunged from last week, when the team had a 72 and 22 percent chance, respectively, but the Crimson Tide are still No. 4 on this list.

Unlike the weekly College Football Playoff rankings, ESPN’s Playoff Predictor is an algorithm that considers factors like strength of schedule, losses, eventual conference championships, the Football Power Index and the selection committee’s past behavior to determine the top teams’ playoff chances. That last one seems like it’s having a notably impact on these numbers because Alabama has been invited to the playoff previously without winning the SEC championship game, which it won’t play in this year thanks to LSU.

These numbers are assuming the Crimson Tide win out just like they’re expected to. The FPI gives them a 56.4 percent chance to win out as they close the regular season with games against Mississippi State, Western Carolina and Auburn. Alabama does not have a win against a currently ranked team, but with a 64.8 percent chance to beat Auburn at the end of the month, the Playoff Predictor anticipates a win there being enough for a strong playoff push.

With that key win over Alabama, LSU’s chances have obviously skyrocketed. The Tigers’ chance to make the playoff is up to 87 percent from 56 percent last week, while their title chance increased to 17 percent from 10 percent. Still seems a little low, right? That’s probably because the Playoff Predictor is hugely favoring Ohio State.

The Buckeyes still have the best chance to do everything. Their shot to make the playoff keeps getting closer and closer to 100 percent and is up to 89 percent from 85 last week. Their chance to win the national championship is also up four points to 40 percent this week. With Penn State’s loss to Minnesota this week, the Nittany Lions are clearly beatable, so Ohio State is favored to beat them in a couple weeks (and win the Big Ten) even more now.

And don’t forget about Clemson. The defending national champs are No. 3 with an 82 percent chance to make the playoff and a 23 percent chance to win it all again — a number second to only Ohio State. They had a 74 percent chance to make the playoff and a 19 percent chance to have back-to-back titles following Week 10. The Tigers have a significantly lower strength of schedule than the other teams in the top six, but they’re also massively favored to win out and finish another season undefeated.

As the regular season winds down, there’s almost no room for error for these top-4 teams (or room for another one for Alabama) because Oregon and Georgia are just waiting to make a move if they keep winning. Here’s a look at ESPN’s Playoff Predictor list going into Week 12.

1. Ohio State (9-0)

Playoff: 89 percent
Win championship: 40 percent

2. LSU (9-0)

Playoff: 87 percent
Win championship: 17 percent

3. Clemson (10-0)

Playoff: 82 percent
Win championship: 23 percent

4. Alabama (8-1)

Playoff: 40 percent
Win championship: 9 percent

5. Oregon (8-1)

Playoff: 32 percent
Win championship: 3 percent

6. Georgia (8-1)

Playoff: 25 percent
Win championship: 3 percent

7. Oklahoma (8-1)

Playoff: 11 percent
Win championship: 1 percent

8. Penn State (8-1)

Playoff: 11 percent
Win championship: 2 percent

9. Utah (8-1)

Playoff: 7 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

10. Auburn (7-2)

Playoff: 5 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

11. Baylor (9-0)

Playoff: 5 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

12. Minnesota (9-0)

Playoff: 4 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

13. Florida (7-2)

Playoff: 2 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

The remaining teams on the Playoff Predictor list, including Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Cincinnati and Michigan, all have a less than one percent chance to make the playoff. See the full list here.

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Does Minkah Fitzpatrick have a case for DPOY?

Minkah Fitzpatrick has had an interesting welcome into the NFL, but it doesn’t seem to have stopped him from playing his best football yet. After being drafted by the Miami Dolphins with the No. 11 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, it had looked …

Minkah Fitzpatrick has had an interesting welcome into the NFL, but it doesn’t seem to have stopped him from playing his best football yet.

After being drafted by the Miami Dolphins with the No. 11 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, it had looked like Fitzpatrick was poised to be the lead man in the team’s secondary.

Instead, he was bounced around three different positions, and was unable to solidify himself as a large contributor because of this.

When the Alabama product requested a trade early on in the 2019 regular season, the Dolphins granted his wish – it also helped that they were looking to build up draft stock in preparation for the 2020 NFL Draft.

A trade was made with Pittsburgh after Week 2, and thus, the breakout year had begun.

In his seven weeks as a Steeler, it’s been hard to not find Fitzpatrick’s name in a headline.

He’s made flashy plays and crucial plays in the black and yellow, almost as if he wanted to show the Dolphins’ front office ‘what could have been.’

So far in 2019, Fitzpatrick, with both teams, has accumulated five interceptions, two defensive touchdowns, eight pass deflections, two fumble recoveries and 45 total tackles.

This stat line is not only impressive for a second-year player that struggled with his original team, but for any defensive back in the pros.

If he is able to continue making big plays that positively affect his team, and keep his name in the headlines – for positive, on-the-field, reasons – he could enter the 2020 season as the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year.

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The Dynasty Isn’t Over – Top Tide Takeaways: Alabama vs LSU

On Saturday, the Alabama Crimson Tide lost to the LSU Tigers for the first time since 2011, 46-41.

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On Saturday, the Alabama Crimson Tide lost to the LSU Tigers for the first time since 2011, 46-41. Coming into this game, a lot was on the line: the SEC West Title, the ability to play in the SEC Championship Game, and a good chance to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. After Saturday, there’s been a lot of conversation regarding whether Alabama still deserves a shot to be in the CFB Playoff after Saturday’s loss. Regardless, the Crimson Tide not only has a lot to address and work on, but Alabama has a lot to prove to themselves and the CFB Playoff committee that they’re better than they played on Saturday. 

Here are some of the Top Tide Takeaways from Saturday’s matchup.

  1. The second half, especially the third quarter, was Alabama’s game. Not only did they hold LSU to zero points in the third quarter, but they were able to 13 total points in the second half while putting 28 points on the board themselves. Going into halftime down by 20 points, Alabama did what they needed to do to adjust and get ready to fight in the second half. Although they still lost by 5 points, the second half of the game showed a team that had grit, passion, and determination. 
  1. Alabama’s running game showcased the ability and talent we knew they’ve had all season. Najee Harris had an incredible game with 19 carries for 146 yards and a TD. His footwork and field vision gave Alabama the momentum it needed to continue downfield. Not only did he have a rushing touchdown, he also had a HUGE receiving touchdown with the Tide down by 20. 
  1. Although Tua Tagovailoa struggled in the first half, he still finished the game with 418 yards passing, 4 TDs, and 1 INT. Tagovailoa clearly wasn’t 100%, but still played his heart out, one foot and all, and that’s all Bama Nation could ask for. 

Area(s) of Concern

  1. Defensively, Alabama struggled a lot to hold and contain LSU, but that’s not a shock. Alabama’s defense is young, and have had to adjust after losing both Dylan Moses and Labryan Ray defensively. Alabama gave up 559 yards to the Tigers, something uncharacteristic of the Tide in previous years. But with the defense as young as they are, this isn’t surprising. And the defense is full of talent that will continue to improve and develop over time. 

All in all, this was a well fought game on both sides. Although Alabama came up short, the second half proved that this team is capable of winning big games. Not only was Tua Tagovailo not 100%, but the defense is young, both of which will take time. But know this: the dynasty is NOwhere near over.

After all, Alabama has been in this position before with no playing in the SEC Championship Game, but still getting into the CFB Playoff. Only time will tell. 

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