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The Alabama Crimson Tide (25-11) battle the UConn Huskies (35-3) Saturday in the Final Four at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:49 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Alabama vs. UConn odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
Alabama, a 4-seed, advanced to its first Final Four in program history after knocking off 6th-seeded Clemson 89-83 in the Elite 8 March 30, covering as a 3-point favorite. G Mark Sears scored a game-high 23 points and was 7-for-14 from 3, while F Nick Pringle recorded a double-double (16 points, 11 rebounds). The Crimson Tide shot 46.8% from the field and 44.4% from beyond the arc.
UConn, a No. 1 seed, finds itself in back-to-back Final Fours after dominating 3rd-seeded Illinois 77-52 in the Elite 8 March 30. The Huskies covered as 8-point favorites. C Donovan Clingan scored a game-high 22 points and grabbed 10 rebounds for a double-double. G Cam Spencer also had a double-double with 11 points and 12 boards. The Huskies shot 51.7% from the field but just 17.6% (3-for-17) behind the 3-point line.
UConn is No. 1 and Alabama is No. 18 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
Third-ranked and top-seeded Purdue (33-4) faces unranked and No. 11 seed NC State (26-14) in the first semifinal at 6:09 p.m. ET (TBS).
Alabama vs. UConn odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook’s; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:33 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Alabama +525 (bet $100 to win $525) | UConn –750 (bet $-750 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Alabama +11.5 (-105) | UConn -11.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 161.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Alabama vs. UConn picks and predictions
Prediction
UConn 81, Alabama 68
Moneyline
PASS.
There is no value betting on UConn (-750) as one would have to risk 7½ times the potential return.
The Huskies have won 11 games in a row and 25 of their last 26. They’ve won each of their 4 NCAA Tournament games by 17 points or more for an average win margin of 27.8 points per game.
Against the spread
LEAN UCONN -11.5 (-115).
The Crimson Tide have covered in each of their 4 Tourney games, including one as 4.5-point underdogs in an 89-87 upset of top-seeded North Carolina.
However, their defense has been a liability. They’ve allowed 82 or more points in 3 of the 4 games and 81 or more points in 9 of their last 10.
On the contrary, the Huskies defense is one of their top strengths. It has allowed them to not only win each of their Tournament games but to win them in blowout fashion. They have covered in each of their 4 Tourney games with 3 of the covers being as 12-point or more favorites.
Understandably, this is a high line for a Final Four game, but it is worth a small wager to back the defending national champs.
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Over/Under
BET UNDER 161.5 (-115).
While Alabama tends to score at a high rate, it faces a UConn team that has hit the Under in 5 straight and 8 of its last 9. The Huskies have held opponents to 58 or fewer points in each of its 4 Tournament games and 67 or fewer points in 9 of their last 10 games overall.
The Crimson Tide tend to play at a high pace, but the pace Saturday will be controlled by UConn, which will ultimately lead to the Under hitting.
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