The Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2) look to end their season on a high note when they meet the Michigan Wolverines (9-3) in the Citrus Bowl in Orlando at 1 p.m. ET New Year’s Day (on ABC). We analyze the Alabama-Michigan odds and betting lines, while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.
Alabama vs. Michigan: Three things you need to know
1. Both teams have been solid on hitting the Over. Michigan is 9-3 O/U on the season, while Alabama is 7-5 despite some incredibly high O/U lines where the Crimson Tide had to supply most of the points.
2. Alabama is 6-1 both on the moneyline and against the spread in its last seven meetings with Big Ten schools.
3. When the Wolverines are expected to lose, they do so with alarming frequency. Michigan has lost its last 16 games against the moneyline when playing as an underdog.
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Alabama vs. Michigan: Odds, betting lines and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 8:40 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Alabama 42, Michigan 27
Moneyline (ML)
Alabama (-250) is a prohibitive favorite despite a slew of injuries on both sides of the ball. But, Michigan (+200) has a history of coming up short against elite opponents – HC Jim Harbaugh has yet to post a win against Ohio State in his tenure at Michigan. The 2:1 return is tempting, but the Wolverines are going to need too many things to go right for them and wrong for ‘Bama. If you must make a bet here, take insurance with Alabama, but I suggest PASSING and focusing on the spread and Over/Under.
Against the Spread (ATS)
This one has been over 7 points, but, currently BetMGM has Alabama a 6.5-point favorite (-125) over Michigan (+105). As would be expected, the payback is better for Michigan, but that’s because the sportsbooks want more action going the Wolverines’ way. I wouldn’t have been shocked to see the spread closer to 10 than less than seven, so this one screams, “TAKE ALABAMA!” because the game comes down to the wire close. Alabama could struggle and still hit the spread at the end.
Over/Under (O/U)
The O/U is high at 57.5 points (-115 Over, -106 Under), but history is on the side of the Over. In its last eight games against SEC schools, Michigan has hit the Over. ‘Bama has a penchant for getting in high-scoring games against good teams – its losses were 46-41 to LSU and 48-45 to Auburn. Michigan’s offense grew increasingly better from what it showed in September. All that needs to happen for the Over to hit is that one team gets up double digits in the first half, preferably the first quarter. Then it’s on. It could set a tone that should leave 57.5 points in the rear-view mirror midway through the fourth. Take the OVER.
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