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The Air Force Falcons (3-0, 1-0 MWC) and the San Jose State Spartans (1-3, 0-0) meet Friday night at Snapdragon Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET (FS1). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Air Force vs. San Jose State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Air Force won its first 2 games against Robert Morris of the FCS and Sam Houston State, but it failed to cover in either of those outings. The Falcons got it right in the MWC opener last week in The Springs, posting a 39-21 win over Utah State while covering the 9.5-point number as they cashed an Over (45.5) for the first time this season.
San Jose State was doubled up 56-28 in the opener at USC in Week 0 and it lost 42-17 at Oregon State the following week. The Spartans took it out on Cal Poly of the FCS on Sept. 9, winning 59-3 to cover a 23-point number. It also covered in a narrow 21-17 road loss against a very good Toledo team last Saturday to improve to 3-1 against the spread (ATS). The Under at Toledo was the first after 3 Over results to start.
This is just the 7th meeting between these schools on the gridiron. Air Force owns a 4-2 series edge, although the Spartans won the most recent meeting Oct. 24, 2020, in San Jose with no fans in attendance due to COVID restrictions. The Spartans are 2-1 all-time at home vs. the Falcons.
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Air Force at San Jose State odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 10:44 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Air Force -178 (bet $178 to win $100) | San Jose State +146 (bet $100 to win $146)
- Against the spread (ATS): Air Force -3.5 (-115) | San Jose State +3.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 46.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Air Force at San Jose State picks and predictions
Prediction
Air Force 31, San Jose State 17
Moneyline
AIR FORCE (-178) isn’t priced too terribly out of line if you don’t want to fiddle with the points, and would rather just pick a winner straight up. A lot of bettors might not like the fact the Falcons are on the road, or some might shy away from the side because it is 3 and a hook. If you want a little insurance, take the Falcons straight up.
Against the spread
AIR FORCE -3.5 (-115) is the play laying the points, however, and I don’t think it will have a lot of difficulty covering.
San Jose State is 3-1 ATS this season and has won 2 of the previous 3 meetings at home in this all-time series, but the Spartans rank 106th in the nation in rushing defense through 4 games, allowing 170.0 yards per game. That’s not a good sign, as the Falcons rank No. 1 in the nation with 320.7 yards per game on the ground.
Over/Under
OVER 46.5 (-105) is the the lean, ever so slightly, but go with a half-unit play at best.
While Air Force is likely to run all over San Jose State, all of the rushing also rags the clock. While it’s just 3 games and the Falcons have played a lot of tomato cans so far, Air Force ranks No. 1 in total yards allowed (179.3), while ranking No. 5 against the pass (135.0) and No. 1 against the run (44.3). The stout defense of Air Force can be attributed to a cakewalk schedule, but San Jose State isn’t exactly a juggernaut, either.
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