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The Baylor Bears (1-1) welcome the Air Force Falcons (1-1) to McLane Stadium Saturday for a prime-time showdown. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Air Force vs. Baylor odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Bears throttled the Tarleton State Texans 45-3 to open their season in Week 1 action, covering as a 35-point favorite. Baylor then went on the road and lost 23-12 to the No. 12 Utah Utes, covering as a 14.5-point favorite. The Bears are led by QB Dequan Finn, who has completed 23 of 43 attempts for 307 yards and 3 TDs.
Air Force, which has been notorious for having a strong run game, is only averaging 154 rushing yards per game. The Falcons beat the Merrimack Warriors 21-6 in Week 1, failing to cover as a 30-point favorite, and then lost 17-7 to San Jose State last week as a 3-point home favorite. They are 0-2 against the spread (ATS) and 0-2 Over/Under. Air Force QB John Busha has just a 38.2% completion percentage through 2 games.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Air Force at Baylor odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:56 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Air Force +550 (bet $100 to win $550) | Baylor -800 (bet $800 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Air Force +16.5 (-110) | Baylor -16.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 41.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Air Force at Baylor picks and predictions
Prediction
Baylor 30, Air Force 13
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s no value here. Baylor is far too expensive to take on the moneyline. Avoid this play.
Against the spread
BET BAYLOR -16.5 (-110).
Air Force’s offense just won’t be good enough to keep pace here. The Falcons, typically a dominant rushing team, don’t have a single player who has topped 100 rushing yards in 2 games.
Air Force is 0-2 ATS and has failed to cover each spread by more than 10 points. The Bears haven’t been great, entering the half down 23-3 before Utah’s star QB was sidelined, but are still 2-0 ATS. The Bears beat up on Tarleton State and can separate themselves from weaker opponents.
Back BEARS -16.5 (-110).
Over/Under
BET OVER 41.5 (-110).
Air Force is going to want to run the ball, and Baylor couldn’t stop Utah on the ground in Week 2 action, allowing its opponent 170 rushing yards. The Falcons should be able to move the ball more and contribute to the total.
Similarly, the Bears will get a much softer defense than Utah and should be able to score frequently, ending with 45 in their Week 1 win. This is a low total considering both Baylor’s first 2 games had a total of 53.5 or greater.
Take OVER 41.5 (-110).
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