PFF simulations project close AFC East race for Bills

Buffalo Bills, AFC East race is very close in Pro Football Focus’ simulations

Pro Football Focus used their crunched numbers and simulated the 2020 NFL season 10,000 times to see what could possible happen during the upcoming year. Their findings from those simulations gave some insight to a potentially close race to the finish line in the AFC East.

The Bills finished these simulations with an average of 7.9 wins next season. While the lowest among all division winners, by comparison, the Bills win the AFC East title in this battle, but as mentioned, it’s awfully close.

But close in a unique way.

Despite losing quarterback Tom Brady this offseason, the Patriots still have a stout defense, so seeing them land in second place in PFF’s simulation isn’t a shock. Overall, the Pats averaged 7.7 wins. But it’s not just the Patriots, the entire AFC East goes down as the tightest battle, from top-to-bottom.

The Bills, in first, are above the Patriots, Dolphins (7.4) and Jets (7.0). From first to last place, a difference of less than one win, makes the Bills-Jets the closest first-to-last place finishes in PFF’s simulations for the entire NFL.

The next closest comes in the NFC North. There, the Packers land at 8.7 wins, edging out the Lions by 1.3 wins (7.4). For much of the rest of the NFL, division winners and bottom-feeders are mostly separated by about two wins.

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Ed Oliver arrested overnight for DWI, unlawful carrying weapon

Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Ed Oliver arrested.

Buffalo Bills sophomore defensive tackle Ed Oliver found himself in some legal troubles overnight, as he was arrested in Montgomery County, Texas, for driving while intoxicated and unlawful possession of a weapon.

According to police reports, another driver called 911 to report a driver in a white pickup truck, who was swerving between lanes in a construction zone. When the police caught up, they found Oliver with an open beer between his legs. Oliver conducted a field sobriety test before being arrested.

Here’s video posted by The Montgomery County Police Reporter:

[youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvt4S_-qREc&w=480&h=270]

After a search of his vehicle, Montgomery County Police also discovered an unregistered pistol in the vehicle, adding to the budding NFL stars woes. He is currently being held at the Montgomery County Jail.

The Bills released a statement early Sunday morning: “We are aware of the situation and we are gathering more information. We will have no further comment at this point.”

This is a tough break for Oliver, who is coming off of a rookie season with 43 tackles and five sacks, and was expected to be an anchor for the Bills defense this upcoming season, and beyond. Oliver was the No. 9 overall pick of the Bills at the 2019 NFL Draft.

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Why Josh Allen is the key to the Bills winning the AFC East

To win the AFC East, the Bills need Josh Allen to progress more, says Henry McKenna.

Jim Kelly: ‘If Bills don’t win AFC East, something’s wrong’

Jim Kelly thinks the Buffalo Bills will win the AFC East in 2020.

Hall of Fame quarterback Jim Kelly was the last signal caller to lead the Buffalo Bills to an AFC East title.

Kelly predicts that “title” of sorts that he holds is going to be handed over to Josh Allen soon.

While the current Bills themselves are not calling their shot, Kelly made an appearance on CBS Sports radio and certainly did. He predicted that the Bills will win the AFC East for the first time since he did in 1995.

“If they don’t, then something’s wrong,” Kelly said. “Tom Brady is not there to block you anymore, so that, to me, is huge.”

“Now that Brady is gone, I definitely do think that the Bills are the team to beat, even though you look at the Jets, they’re getting better, Miami and Tua (Tagovailoa) coming in. I think they’re going to be better,” Kelly added. “And of course, Belichick is going to have New England ready to play. We’ll see what happens at the quarterback position in New England, but right now, there’s no doubt that the Bills are probably favored to win the AFC East and if they don’t, then they must have some serious injuries because they have all the ingredients it takes to move on in the playoffs.”

On Brady, Kelly added that he was a bit surprised that he chose to leave the Patriots as well. Kelly, who played for the Bills from 1986-1996, examined the situation through the spectrum of his own career

“When you’ve been there that long, what, 20 years? I’m sure things start to wear on you. But yeah [he was surprised], even with myself, when I retired, I wanted to be a Buffalo Bill. I always wanted to stay with one team, the team that I started with and I felt that Brady would be there at the end and retire as a New England Patriot and only play for the Patriots. But hey, he felt that this was time for him to move on. It’s up to him, it’s his life,” Kelly said.

Over the years, Kelly and Brady have shown a mutual respect for one another and a friendship as a Hall of Famer and future one. But Kelly did joke that he did do his…due dilligence for Bills Mafia.

“Tom is getting older, he’s getting old, but he can still play. I tried to talk him into retiring two or three years ago. He wouldn’t listen to me, I don’t know why,” Kelly said.

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How good is Dolphins’ offensive line relative to the AFC East?

The Miami Dolphins were hard at work this week to discover the right blend of offensive linemen to install around their new franchise quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa. Miami’s intent to properly stockpile linemen who fit the mold allowed the team to group together potentially five new starters along the offensive line — but how effective will this group ultimately be in 2020?

In the long run, the Dolphins appear to have at the very least secured a few upgrades that have sticking power — the law of averages indicates it is almost impossible that the Dolphins struck out on upgrades with so many swings of the bat. But where does Miami’s overhauled offensive line rank relative to the rest of the AFC East?

The East division suddenly is filled with young quarterbacks. Tagovailoa in Miami, Josh Allen in Buffalo, Sam Darnold in New York and Jarrett Stidham in New England all are either already starters or will have a chance to claim their respective starting jobs for 2020.

How does the Dolphins’ offensive line stack up versus the rest of the AFC East in the division’s effort to protect their young passers? Here’s a look at each team’s projected front.

Buffalo Bills

LT: Dion Dawkins
LG: Quinton Spain
C: Mitch Morse
RG: Jon Feliciano
RT: Cody Ford

Miami Dolphins

LT: Austin Jackson
LG: Ereck Flowers
C: Ted Karras
RG: Jesse Davis
RT: Robert Hunt

New England Patriots

LT: Isaiah Wynn
LG: Joe Thuney
C: David Andrews
RG: Shaq Mason
RT: Marcus Cannon

New York Jets

LT: Mekhi Becton
LG: Alex Lewis
C: Connor McGovern
RG: Brian Winters
RT: Chuma Edoga

The Patriots have the advantage of the best interior group in the division, bar none. Thuney’s long-term status is in the air but for now we should operate under the assumption that he’s going to be in New England for the 2020 season. The trio inside plus the presence of a former 1st-round pick in Isaiah Wynn gives the Patriots the most formidable offensive line in the division.

The Buffalo Bills are one year removed from a 2020 Miami Dolphins caliber rebuild on the offensive line — and with good success. Morse and Spain are quality starters, while Cody Ford did well to learn on the job and play through ups and downs in 2019. Given their chemistry and having played together last season, they too have an advantage over the Dolphins.

The Jets and Dolphins make for an interesting conversation. The highest ceiling player on either unit is the Jets’ new addition in Becton and the team also did well to add McGovern this offseason. But if you look at the entire unit (and the depth behind it), the case is there for the Dolphins to have a better top to bottom unit on the offensive line. With time, patience and chemistry, this group has a clear identity and could challenge the other teams in the division — but the Dolphins should be wary to avoid putting the cart before the horse.

Getting new pieces is only the first step in the rebuild — now the team must develop their young talent and build chemistry between their starting five. Then and only then will they be ready to try to measure up to the more established units in the AFC East.

5 takeaways from Jags’ 2020 schedule

There is a lot to takeaway from the Jags’ schedule but the biggest may be the rough ending to it.

The league released the schedules of all 32 teams Thursday including the Jacksonville Jaguars’. With the team set to play a full slate of home games for the first time since 2012, many fans were excited to see the order in which the home schedule would come.

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Coach Doug Marrone will look to improve upon the results we’ve seen in 2018-19 and will have to do so with a very young roster. One thing working in his favor is the fact that the Jags’ strength of schedule ranks 22nd, significantly better than what he’s faced in the past.

All of that said, here are some of the observations we came away with after thoroughly evaluating the schedule:

Mandatory Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports

The Jags start off the season with two difficult divisional games

The Jaguars will start their 2020 regular season against the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans Week 1-2, which means they can pile up two losses quickly. On the other hand, it also could give them a chance to make some noise early within the AFC South.

Neither opponent will be easy to defeat, although the Jags did split their series with both last year. However, things are different now as Indy has Philip Rivers who is 7-2 overall against them with a 69.44% completion rate in their head-to-heads. Additionally, he’s thrown 24 touchdowns with just five picks against them.

The Titans also have the Jags’ number as Jacksonville has lost five of their last six meetings against them. The good thing is that the one victory that came against the Titans over that span was with Gardner Minshew II under center. He’ll be the one battling them Week 2 as well, so maybe he can restore his magic and get the Jags an early win in the season.

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2020 Jaguars schedule: Jacksonville has 1 primetime game

The Jacksonville Jaguars’ schedule is out and starts with two divisional games against the Colts and Titans.

Coach Doug Marrone will be heading into his third consecutive year with the Jacksonville Jaguars and will be looking to improve upon two consecutive losing seasons. While it will be an uphill battle due to having a significantly younger team, the Jags’ lineup could be much worse as their strength of schedule only ranks 22nd.

This year, they will open up against the Indianapolis Colts at home, which won’t be easy by any means. The team recently added veteran quarterback Philip Rivers, who has a 7-2 overall record against them with a 69.44% completion rate in their head-to-heads. He’s also thrown 24 touchdowns with just five picks against them.

Following that game, the Jags will get to knock another divisional game out of the way by traveling to the Tennessee Titans, who they split last year’s series with (1-1). Following that game, they’ll come back home for a Thursday Night Football matchup against rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins, which will be the only primetime game on the schedule barring some changes.

Their next notable game comes against the Houston Texans Week 5 at NRG Stadium, marking their third in the AFC South of the regular season. Four weeks later the two will meet again in Jacksonville.

Afterward, the Jags will head to the legendary Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers. The following week they will come home to take on a longtime AFC Rival in the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Jags’ roughest patch will come during the last quarter of the season where they will battle to AFC South rivals in the Titans (Week 14) and Colts (Week 17). In the middle of those games, they will also have to travel to Baltimore to face NFL MVP Lamar Jackson and will have a home game against the Chicago Bears, who could be led by former Jag Nick Foles if Mitch Trubisky hasn’t retained his job.

The full schedule is as follows:

Week 1: vs. Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, Sept. 13, 1:00 PM)
Week 2: at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, Sept. 20, 1:00 PM)
Week 3: vs. Miami Thursday Night Football (Thursday, Sept. 24, 8:20 PM)
Week 4: at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday, Oct. 4, 1:00 PM)
Week 5: at Houston Texans (Sunday, Oct. 11, 1:00 PM)
Week 6: vs. Detroit Lions (Sunday, Oct. 18, 1:00 PM)
Bye
Week 8: at Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday, Nov. 11, 4:05 PM ET)
Week 9: vs. Houston Texans (Sunday, Nov. 8, 1:00 PM)
Week 10: at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, Nov. 15, 1:00 PM)
Week 11: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, Nov. 22, 1:00 PM)
Week 12: vs. Cleveland Browns (Sunday, Nov. 29, 1:00 PM)
Week 13: at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, Dec. 6, 1:00 PM)
Week 14: vs. Tennessee Titans (Sunday, Dec. 13, 1:00 PM)
Week 15: at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, Dec. 20, 1:00 PM)
Week 16: vs. Chicago Bears (Sunday, Dec. 27, 1:00 PM)
Week 17: at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, Jan. 3, 1:00 PM)

Sam Darnold talks Jets’ offseason moves, Tom Brady to Tampa, Robby Anderson leaving and more

Jets quarterback Sam Darnold covered a wide variety of topics Tuesday: From the draft to free agency to Tom Brady leaving the division.

The Jets’ 2020 roster will look a lot different than it did in Sam Darnold’s first two years in the NFL, and that’s a good thing.

Darnold saw the Jets’ beef up the offensive line, attempt to solve questions at wide receiver and even improve areas of the defense as well this offseason. There will be great expectations for Darnold now as he enters his third season in the league and second with Adam Gase as head coach.

Darnold spoke to reporters Tuesday on a variety of the biggest topics facing the Jets this offseason. From the draft to free agency to coronavirus and more, here are the most interesting things Darnold said.

The New Kids

Douglas did a great job giving Darnold some help this offseason in free agency and he continued the pattern with his first two draft picks. He took tackle Mekhi Becton in the first round and wide receiver Denzel Mims in the second round to fortify two positions of need on the Jets offense.

Darnold pointed out the obvious with Becton: He’s a “big guy” with his 6-foot-7, 364-pound frame. “He’s a freak athlete and a large human,” Darnold added.

Mims, who should line up outside with fellow wideout Breshad Perriman, flashed at Baylor with ridiculous numbers. Darnold likely saw the highlights and noticed Mims’ ability.

“He’s a great playmaker,” Darnold said. “He’s got a lot of potential.”

RELATED: Grading all 9 Jets picks in the 2020 NFL Draft

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With the NFL planning to release their 2020 schedules soon, here are the Jags’ opponents

The Jacksonville Jaguars’ schedule will be released soon, but in the meantime, here are some key things to know about their opponents.

According to NFL executive vice president Jeff Pash, the NFL is planning to start on schedule despite the COVID-19 pandemic that has occurred worldwide. That being said, it also appears the league is planning to release it’s regular and preseason schedules this week, which for the Jags, could include a full home schedule at TIAA Bank Field for the first time since 2012.

Of course, the schedule will include its typical two games against their three divisional opponents from the AFC South. It also will include games against the whole AFC and NFC North divisions as well as a game against the fourth-place teams from the AFC East and the AFC West as a result of being 2019’s fourth-place team for their own division.

Here’s a full list of the Jags’ 2020 opponents:

Home

Cleveland Browns (AFC North)
Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC North)
Chicago Bears (NFC North)
Detroit Lions (NFC North)
Miami Dolphins (AFC East)
Tennessee Titans (AFC South)
Houston Texans (AFC South)
Indianapolis Colts (AFC South)

Away

Baltimore Ravens (AFC North)
Cincinnati Bengals (AFC North)
Green Bay Packers (NFC North)
Minnesota Vikings (NFC North)
Los Angeles Chargers (AFC West)
Tennessee Titans (AFC South)
Houston Texans (AFC South)
Indianapolis Colts (AFC South)

Noteworthy tidbits

The Jags were 2-4 in their division last year. Their two wins came against the Titans Week 4 and Indy in the season finale.
The Jags will play five 2019 postseason opponents next year in the Texans, Titans, Ravens, Packers, and Vikings.
The Jaguars’ strength of schedule ranks No. 22 with their opponents totaling a 126-129-1 (.494) record last season.
The Jags could be playing former quarterback Nick Foles in 2020, who they traded to the Bears this offseason.
After their struggles against him for many years, the Jags will have to deal with Philip Rivers twice (if healthy) as he now is with the Colts.

B/R predicts 11 wins for Bills in 2020

Bleacher Report predicts the Buffalo Bills will runaway with the AFC East in 2020.

Bleacher Report Bill-eves right now.

B/R pegged their win total guess for every team in the NFL next season, and the Bills are much more than a playoff team. They’re the runaway winners of the AFC East.

Overall, the guess is that the Bills’ record will be 11-5. Here’s part of B/R’s prediction:

It’s quarterback Josh Allen’s time to shine.

The Buffalo Bills acquired wideout Stefon Diggs from the Minnesota Vikings. In 2019, he became a big-play pass-catcher, logging 17.9 yards per reception.

With Allen’s big arm, he and Diggs should connect on several deep balls next season. John Brown, who posted career highs in receptions (72) and yards (1,060) last year, will likely become the No. 2 option. The pair should challenge opposing defenses with speed and crisp routes downfield.

After allowing the second-fewest points during the last term, the Bills defense will look even better. Buffalo signed defensive tackle Vernon Butler, edge-rusher Mario Addison, linebacker A.J. Klein and cornerback Josh Norman, who are all familiar with head coach Sean McDermott from their time with the Carolina Panthers.

You know the additions, you know the expectations. So let’s get straight to the fun.

The Patriots are predicted to finish in dead last in the division in B/R’s predictions with four wins. The Dolphins and Jets both edge out the Patriots, but also don’t even come close to the Bills as their projections have them at five and six wins each, respectively.

There’s been some clamoring that the Bills could make a serious divisional run in 2020. But that’s a bold take by B/R that Bills Mafia will certainly allow.

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