Tag: Advanced Stats

Graham Glasgow’s decline forces the Lions into a tough spot at guard

Graham Glasgow had the worst blown block and pressure rate of any guard in the NFL in 2024

Anyone who watched the Detroit Lions play down the stretch could see that the once-mighty offensive line just wasn’t playing to its typical standard. That was especially true of left guard Graham Glasgow.

It wasn’t a strong season for the 32-year-old Michigan man. His move from right guard to left to replace Jonah Jackson didn’t fare as well as hoped. Blown blocks, which aren’t exactly position-specific, were a particular problem.

In the graphic below from Stat Account, blown blocks and pressure rates for interior offensive linemen are charted. The upper right quadrant is where the best players are, a realm where right guard Kevin Zeitler prominently resides. The farther down and to the left, the worse it gets.

 

 

Glasgow’s prominence to the far left and near the bottom validates the Pro Football Focus grades he earned during the season. The veteran earned a PFF overall game score over 55.1 just twice in the final seven games; 60.0 is considered a below-average performance. Against Washington, Glasgow earned an absurdly low 10.2 score in pass protection, giving up nine QB pressures and a sack–the strip-sack on Jared Goff that created a takeaway for the Washington defense.

In his first year back from Denver, Glasgow was strong in 2023 as Detroit’s starting right guard–notably in the run game. His 2024 campaign was a lot more like his final year in Denver in 2022. Glasgow ranked 68th out of 77 guards graded by PFF who played at least 250 snaps in 2024. In his last Broncos season, when he ranked dead last in PFF overall grades amongst qualifying guards and centers.

The pattern is troubling. Glasgow is due $5.5 million in 2025 and $6.5 million in 2026, which is starter salary. Zeitler, who turns 35 in March, is a free agent. The Lions got impressive work from rookie Christian Mahogany in limited time, enough that it’s reasonable to expect him to start in 2025. Mahogany is a natural right guard, though he filled in capably at left guard.

Glasgow is also the de facto backup for center Frank Ragnow. He still brings value and merit as the top reserve interior offensive lineman, albeit a fairly expensive one. The drop in his play with no notable injuries (in Detroit) is concerning enough that the Lions need to actively look to replace him in the starting lineup. If he fights off that challenge, and don’t put it past a proud vet like Glasgow to make that happen, it’s an even better scenario for the Lions.

Alontae Taylor has been one of the worst tacklers in the NFL

Alontae Taylor has more missed tackles than any cornerback this season, with the highest miss rate of any defender. He must clean it up if he’s going to be someone they can rely on:

You never want to be on the wrong side of this stat. Alontae Taylor has been one of the worst tacklers in the NFL this year, and the New Orleans Saints have felt the impact in both the running and passing game.

The cornerback has a 22 missed tackles, for a missed tackle rate of 20.2%. His 22 missed tackles are the most for any cornerback. His missed tackle rate, however, is higher than any defender with at least 100 tackling attempts.

When you think about a bad run defense, you typically think about the defensive lineman not getting push or linebackers not filling the gap efficiently.

While that’s at play as well, Taylor is a physical player who spent about half of the season in the slot. That put him in the run game more than his snaps at outside corner. Missed tackles on the perimeter can easily lead to a runner getting the edge and gives more of an opportunity for a big play.

In the passing game, that adds more yards after catch. Tackling has been one of the bigger issues for the New Orleans Saints. In Taylor’s case, both are prone to lead to big plays. We all know that’s another issue that has plagued the Saints. He must clean it up if he’s going to be someone they can rely on in a starting role.

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Advanced stats highlight one of the Saints’ biggest defensive faults

Tackling has been one of the biggest issues for the Saints run defense. These advanced stats showcase another reason for the struggles.

The New Orleans Saints struggling run defense has been a constant topic of conversation. There was a point where it appeared to improve. Over the last two weeks, however, the issues have darted back to the forefront.

You can point towards total yardage to hammer the point home, but advanced statistics get to the true root of the issue.

The Saints are one of the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to getting to rushers in the backfield. They have the second lowest contact rate behind the line of scrimmage, just 35.3%.

Demario Davis has more total tackles, but he’ll likely fail to get 10 tackles for loss for the first time since 2014. That stat is a great indication of New Orleans’ failures against the run, but it starts with the front line.

The lack of push from the defensive line allows opposing runners to average 1.5 yards before contact. That’s the third-most in the league. Compound that with tackling struggles, and it’s a recipe for disaster.

Teams are succeeding prior to the contact point and after contact has been initiated. These are two separate issues that can hamper a run defense individually. The Saints have both, and that’s the opposite of a recipe for success.

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Detroit’s stunning turnaround in pass coverage keys defensive improvement

The Detroit Lions invested heavily in upgrading the pass coverage and it’s paying off, with the Lions D allowing the lowest QB rating in 2024

The Detroit Lions have allowed the lowest opposing QB passer rating through the first 14 weeks of the 2024 NFL season. That is perhaps the most startling statistic you’ll see all week.

The Lions are allowing a cumulative passer rating of 76.5 en route to a 12-1 start. That’s a significant upgrade from the 93.1 that Aaron Glenn’s unit surrendered in 2023, a mark that ranked 23rd of 32 NFL teams. Passer rating encompasses completion percentage, yards per catch, touchdowns vs INTs and more. Give credit to the radical turnaround to the coverage, specifically the overhauled Detroit secondary.

Detroit swapped out Cam Sutton, Jerry Jacobs, Tracy Walker and more, replacing them with Carlton Davis, Terrion Arnold, Amik Robertson and a savvy move to install Brian Branch as a full-time safety after spending his rookie season in the slot. The investment in upgrading the coverage has paid off immediately.

Davis, signed as a free agent, is the top-graded cover corner in the NFL over the last month per PFF metrics. The team’s first-round pick, Arnold has been very effective in coverage, albeit something of a penalty magnet. Robertson has been steady in the slot and does a great job limiting yards after the catch.

The safety tandem of Branch and Kerby Joseph has been free to take more playmaking chances as a result, and it’s working. Joseph has a league-best seven INTs. Branch has already surpassed his INT and solo tackle totals from his fantastic rookie season. The vision and coordination of the two safeties have also been quite beneficial in overall coverage.

In 2023, the Lions earned a PFF coverage grade of 51.6 for the season, ranking 30th. Through Week 14, that grade has spiked to 82.4 — 4th-best in the league. Given that the QB pressure rate and sack rate are nearly identical to 2023, the revamped secondary and more aggressive man-coverage scheme from Glenn and his defensive staff deserve the Lions’ share of the credit for the considerable defensive improvement.

 

Lions offensive line has 3 of the best linemen at not losing on plays

The Lions offensive line has 3 of the best linemen at not losing on plays, including the best center and tackle in blown block/pressure rate

By this point of the season, it’s well established that the Detroit Lions have one of the best overall offensive lines in the NFL. Many analysts and analytics label the Lions line as No. 1 in the league.

One of the reasons why is the consistency of performance. Every lineman is going to have a bad play here or there, but the Lions are very good at having a lot fewer than normal. Three Detroit linemen in particular rank in the top eight in the entire league in blown block rate.

Center Frank Ragnow checks in at No. 2 in the rate of fewest blown blocks and pressures allowed, as determined by FTN Advanced NFL Stats data. Only perennial Pro Bowler, guard Brandon Scherff of the Jaguars (and formerly the Commanders) tops Ragnow’s 1.19 percent combined metric.

That rate is the best among centers, with Ragnow tied with Steelers rookie Zach Frazier. Ragnow has one blown block and eight pressures allowed in 758 snaps.

Lions right tackle Penei Sewell has the top blown/pressure blocking rate amongst all tackles at 1.54 percent. Sewell is the only tackle in the top 20 listings. He’s No. 7 overall, one spot ahead of Lions teammate Kevin Zeitler, who plays to Sewell’s inside shoulder at right guard.

These metrics are all subjectively determined, so the actual figures aren’t as important as the place in the overall pantheon of blocking. And the Lions have three of the eight most consistent at getting their job done, including the best center and tackle in the league.

The Lions run this coverage scheme more than any other team, and it’s working great

The Lions defense runs Cover-1 more than any other team and it’s working well for coordinator Aaron Glenn and his secondary

One of the biggest reasons for the 8-1 start by the Detroit Lions has been the improved play of the secondary. The pass coverage by the revamped cornerback room has been a significant upgrade from years past, thanks to an overhaul with new personnel.

Finding a coverage scheme that fits the personnel is a critical part of the coaching from defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. Getting players who can fit what scheme Glenn wants to run is part of that, and that’s exactly what the Lions did in bringing in Carlton Davis, Amik Robertson and Terrion Arnold as the top three CBs.

All are at their best in man coverage, which is Glenn’s preferred coverage scheme. It’s where Glenn was at his best as a Pro Bowl cornerback in his playing days, after all. With corners who thrive in man, Glenn is deploying man coverage at a very high rate relative to his NFL peers.

The Lions run some form of man coverage on 43 percent of opposing pass plays, according to data from Fantasy Points and social media’s Football Insights. No team uses more base man coverage than the Lions through the first 10 weeks.

There is one specific coverage scheme where the Lions really lean heavily: Cover-1. That’s man coverage from the cornerbacks with one safety (Kerby Joseph) roaming over the top and another safety (Brian Branch) buzzing more shallow, and LBs (typically Alex Anzalone but also Jack Campbell) running with underneath routes.

The Lions use this base cover scheme 38 percent of the time, the highest usage of Cover-1 in the league. Only the Browns, at 35 percent, are even close to using Glenn’s preferred Cover-1 as much.

 

Going heavy on Cover-1 plays to the best advantage of the man skills of the cornerbacks and the ball-hawking athleticism of the safeties. Last year’s Lions secondary couldn’t begin to effectively run Cover-1, but Glenn and the Lions found a great balance between personnel and coverage scheme this year.

Saints vs. Chargers may come down to this pivotal stat

With a pair of offensive linemen hopefully returning, the Saints’ ability to open up running lanes should improve. It has to if they’re going to end this losing streak.

One of the biggest flaws of the New Orleans Saints this season has been the struggles in the offensive line.

The Saints are middle of the pack in run blocking this year, currently possessing 16th best run block win rate. Both teams are going to prioritize the run offensively. The Los Angeles Chargers are really good at stopping the run.

Joey Bosa is dealing with an injury, but at best the Saints will still have to deal with Khalil Mack and Bud Dupree. As a team, the Chargers have the 8th best run stop win rate.

Lucas Patrick and Cesar Ruiz may return from injury this week for the Saints. That should help matters. Alvin Kamara started the season on fire, but injuries have made it difficult for Kamara to find running lanes.

Running the football is the identity of this team, and they’ve been unable to do it in recent games. It’s a big reason the offense has stalled out. This week they’re going against one of the best rush defenses in the league.

If trends continue, the Chargers will dominate the trenches which will greatly limit the Saints’ chances of victory.

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Lions offense doing everything great through two weeks except scoring

Lions offense doing everything great through two weeks except scoring, and the red zone offense is the reason

Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and his squad are taking a lot of heat after a lackluster first two weeks of the 2024 NFL season. Detroit’s offense is moving the ball exceptionally well, but they’re simply not converting all those yards into points.

Currently, the Lions are in the top 10 in almost every offensive category after Week 2:

Net yards: 826 (2nd)

First downs: 47 (t-2nd)

Third down conversion rate: 43.3 (8th)

Sacks allowed: 2 (t-1st)

Sack rate (sacks allowed per pass attempt): 2.2% (1st)

Yards per carry: 5.2 (8th)

Rushing yards: 302 (9th)

Yards per 1st down play: 6.34 (3rd)

Passing yards per game: 262 (2nd)

Red zone possessions: 11 (t-1st)

It’s that last one where the Lions have been most disappointing through the first two games. No team has had more offensive possessions drive into the opposing red zone (inside the 20-yard line) than Detroit. In those 11 red zone trips, the Lions have managed just three touchdowns.

Scoring offense: 21 PPG (16th)

The 27.3 touchdown percentage in the red zone ranks 28th through two weeks. Only Denver, Dallas, Pittsburgh and Seattle have been worse at converting touchdowns inside the red zone. Add in field goals, where Jake Bates has been a perfect 5-for-5 inside the red zone, and the Lions have scored points on 8-of-11 red zone trips.

The three empty red zone possessions are the most in the league. They’re the primary reason why the Lions are 1-1 — and needed overtime for the win — instead of 2-0 with the NFL’s 13th-ranked scoring defense.

Blake Grupe ranks among the best kickers in the NFL with this advanced metric

Blake Grupe ranks among the best kickers in the league in this metric from NFL Next Gen Stats:

https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/status/1836773328520138974

The first few weeks of the NFL season have seen a drastic rise in kicker usage, as the quarterback play across the league has seen a pretty significant drop in total yards. This has allowed kickers to take on larger roles than ever, and their advanced metrics have seen a drastic rise to previous seasons.

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the league-wide field goal accuracy has increased (by field goal percentage over the expected percentage) from +4.5% in 2023 to +11% this season. While the sample size is small so far for 2024, it has risen from -1.7% in 2019, which is a pretty drastic increase.

New Orleans Saints kicker Blake Grupe ranks among the best in this statistic through Week 2, as he has a +33.0% field goal percentage over expected. This puts him at second in the league, behind only Ka’imi Fairbairn who has been off to a massive start this season. Grupe has missed only one kick this season, a PAT, but otherwise has drilled all five field goal attempts with a long of 57, as well as all of his remaining PAT attempts (10). He leads the league through two weeks in PATs scored and attempts as well.

A +23% over league average for Grupe in this analytic shows he is not only making field goals, but making difficult field goals, which is a great sign given he was put into a competition this offseason with rookie Charlie Smyth, which Grupe ultimately won. We will see how this analytic progresses in coming weeks with a larger sample size to look at.

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Stats show how badly Jared Goff struggled under pressure vs. Bucs

The advanced stat breakdown from Next Gen Stats shows how badly Jared Goff struggled under pressure vs. Bucs

Jared Goff has always been something of a tale of two quarterbacks, as Lions legend Herman Moore recently described. The Goff playing without pressure from the defense is consistently one of the NFL’s better quarterbacks. The Goff under pressure, well, not so much…

That was certainly the case in Detroit’s Week 2 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Goff posted some solid production with 307 passing yards, completing 34 of his 55 pass attempts. However, he did not throw a touchdown pass and did get picked twice, though one of those absolutely should have been defensive pass interference (the box score doesn’t care).

Part of the problem in the Lions loss, and a big reason why they only scored 16 points despite posting over 450 total yards, was that Goff had a very rough day when pressured by the Tampa Bay defense. The analytics folks behind Next Gen Stats revealed just how much Goff sputtered when pressured in Week 2.

Sandwiched between nuggets on Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels in the Zebra Technologies weekly newsletter is this unsavory tidbit on Goff,

Jared Goff went 9/17 for 117 yards, 2 INTs, and had a 35.3 passer rating when under pressure in the Lions’ home loss vs. Tampa Bay.

That’s a rough split from the overall statistics, and that’s also something that has been fairly characteristic of Goff’s NFL career.