Tag: Advanced Stats

Detroit’s stunning turnaround in pass coverage keys defensive improvement

The Detroit Lions invested heavily in upgrading the pass coverage and it’s paying off, with the Lions D allowing the lowest QB rating in 2024

The Detroit Lions have allowed the lowest opposing QB passer rating through the first 14 weeks of the 2024 NFL season. That is perhaps the most startling statistic you’ll see all week.

The Lions are allowing a cumulative passer rating of 76.5 en route to a 12-1 start. That’s a significant upgrade from the 93.1 that Aaron Glenn’s unit surrendered in 2023, a mark that ranked 23rd of 32 NFL teams. Passer rating encompasses completion percentage, yards per catch, touchdowns vs INTs and more. Give credit to the radical turnaround to the coverage, specifically the overhauled Detroit secondary.

Detroit swapped out Cam Sutton, Jerry Jacobs, Tracy Walker and more, replacing them with Carlton Davis, Terrion Arnold, Amik Robertson and a savvy move to install Brian Branch as a full-time safety after spending his rookie season in the slot. The investment in upgrading the coverage has paid off immediately.

Davis, signed as a free agent, is the top-graded cover corner in the NFL over the last month per PFF metrics. The team’s first-round pick, Arnold has been very effective in coverage, albeit something of a penalty magnet. Robertson has been steady in the slot and does a great job limiting yards after the catch.

The safety tandem of Branch and Kerby Joseph has been free to take more playmaking chances as a result, and it’s working. Joseph has a league-best seven INTs. Branch has already surpassed his INT and solo tackle totals from his fantastic rookie season. The vision and coordination of the two safeties have also been quite beneficial in overall coverage.

In 2023, the Lions earned a PFF coverage grade of 51.6 for the season, ranking 30th. Through Week 14, that grade has spiked to 82.4 — 4th-best in the league. Given that the QB pressure rate and sack rate are nearly identical to 2023, the revamped secondary and more aggressive man-coverage scheme from Glenn and his defensive staff deserve the Lions’ share of the credit for the considerable defensive improvement.

 

Lions offensive line has 3 of the best linemen at not losing on plays

The Lions offensive line has 3 of the best linemen at not losing on plays, including the best center and tackle in blown block/pressure rate

By this point of the season, it’s well established that the Detroit Lions have one of the best overall offensive lines in the NFL. Many analysts and analytics label the Lions line as No. 1 in the league.

One of the reasons why is the consistency of performance. Every lineman is going to have a bad play here or there, but the Lions are very good at having a lot fewer than normal. Three Detroit linemen in particular rank in the top eight in the entire league in blown block rate.

Center Frank Ragnow checks in at No. 2 in the rate of fewest blown blocks and pressures allowed, as determined by FTN Advanced NFL Stats data. Only perennial Pro Bowler, guard Brandon Scherff of the Jaguars (and formerly the Commanders) tops Ragnow’s 1.19 percent combined metric.

That rate is the best among centers, with Ragnow tied with Steelers rookie Zach Frazier. Ragnow has one blown block and eight pressures allowed in 758 snaps.

Lions right tackle Penei Sewell has the top blown/pressure blocking rate amongst all tackles at 1.54 percent. Sewell is the only tackle in the top 20 listings. He’s No. 7 overall, one spot ahead of Lions teammate Kevin Zeitler, who plays to Sewell’s inside shoulder at right guard.

These metrics are all subjectively determined, so the actual figures aren’t as important as the place in the overall pantheon of blocking. And the Lions have three of the eight most consistent at getting their job done, including the best center and tackle in the league.

The Lions run this coverage scheme more than any other team, and it’s working great

The Lions defense runs Cover-1 more than any other team and it’s working well for coordinator Aaron Glenn and his secondary

One of the biggest reasons for the 8-1 start by the Detroit Lions has been the improved play of the secondary. The pass coverage by the revamped cornerback room has been a significant upgrade from years past, thanks to an overhaul with new personnel.

Finding a coverage scheme that fits the personnel is a critical part of the coaching from defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. Getting players who can fit what scheme Glenn wants to run is part of that, and that’s exactly what the Lions did in bringing in Carlton Davis, Amik Robertson and Terrion Arnold as the top three CBs.

All are at their best in man coverage, which is Glenn’s preferred coverage scheme. It’s where Glenn was at his best as a Pro Bowl cornerback in his playing days, after all. With corners who thrive in man, Glenn is deploying man coverage at a very high rate relative to his NFL peers.

The Lions run some form of man coverage on 43 percent of opposing pass plays, according to data from Fantasy Points and social media’s Football Insights. No team uses more base man coverage than the Lions through the first 10 weeks.

There is one specific coverage scheme where the Lions really lean heavily: Cover-1. That’s man coverage from the cornerbacks with one safety (Kerby Joseph) roaming over the top and another safety (Brian Branch) buzzing more shallow, and LBs (typically Alex Anzalone but also Jack Campbell) running with underneath routes.

The Lions use this base cover scheme 38 percent of the time, the highest usage of Cover-1 in the league. Only the Browns, at 35 percent, are even close to using Glenn’s preferred Cover-1 as much.

 

Going heavy on Cover-1 plays to the best advantage of the man skills of the cornerbacks and the ball-hawking athleticism of the safeties. Last year’s Lions secondary couldn’t begin to effectively run Cover-1, but Glenn and the Lions found a great balance between personnel and coverage scheme this year.

Saints vs. Chargers may come down to this pivotal stat

With a pair of offensive linemen hopefully returning, the Saints’ ability to open up running lanes should improve. It has to if they’re going to end this losing streak.

One of the biggest flaws of the New Orleans Saints this season has been the struggles in the offensive line.

The Saints are middle of the pack in run blocking this year, currently possessing 16th best run block win rate. Both teams are going to prioritize the run offensively. The Los Angeles Chargers are really good at stopping the run.

Joey Bosa is dealing with an injury, but at best the Saints will still have to deal with Khalil Mack and Bud Dupree. As a team, the Chargers have the 8th best run stop win rate.

Lucas Patrick and Cesar Ruiz may return from injury this week for the Saints. That should help matters. Alvin Kamara started the season on fire, but injuries have made it difficult for Kamara to find running lanes.

Running the football is the identity of this team, and they’ve been unable to do it in recent games. It’s a big reason the offense has stalled out. This week they’re going against one of the best rush defenses in the league.

If trends continue, the Chargers will dominate the trenches which will greatly limit the Saints’ chances of victory.

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Lions offense doing everything great through two weeks except scoring

Lions offense doing everything great through two weeks except scoring, and the red zone offense is the reason

Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and his squad are taking a lot of heat after a lackluster first two weeks of the 2024 NFL season. Detroit’s offense is moving the ball exceptionally well, but they’re simply not converting all those yards into points.

Currently, the Lions are in the top 10 in almost every offensive category after Week 2:

Net yards: 826 (2nd)

First downs: 47 (t-2nd)

Third down conversion rate: 43.3 (8th)

Sacks allowed: 2 (t-1st)

Sack rate (sacks allowed per pass attempt): 2.2% (1st)

Yards per carry: 5.2 (8th)

Rushing yards: 302 (9th)

Yards per 1st down play: 6.34 (3rd)

Passing yards per game: 262 (2nd)

Red zone possessions: 11 (t-1st)

It’s that last one where the Lions have been most disappointing through the first two games. No team has had more offensive possessions drive into the opposing red zone (inside the 20-yard line) than Detroit. In those 11 red zone trips, the Lions have managed just three touchdowns.

Scoring offense: 21 PPG (16th)

The 27.3 touchdown percentage in the red zone ranks 28th through two weeks. Only Denver, Dallas, Pittsburgh and Seattle have been worse at converting touchdowns inside the red zone. Add in field goals, where Jake Bates has been a perfect 5-for-5 inside the red zone, and the Lions have scored points on 8-of-11 red zone trips.

The three empty red zone possessions are the most in the league. They’re the primary reason why the Lions are 1-1 — and needed overtime for the win — instead of 2-0 with the NFL’s 13th-ranked scoring defense.

Blake Grupe ranks among the best kickers in the NFL with this advanced metric

Blake Grupe ranks among the best kickers in the league in this metric from NFL Next Gen Stats:

https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/status/1836773328520138974

The first few weeks of the NFL season have seen a drastic rise in kicker usage, as the quarterback play across the league has seen a pretty significant drop in total yards. This has allowed kickers to take on larger roles than ever, and their advanced metrics have seen a drastic rise to previous seasons.

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the league-wide field goal accuracy has increased (by field goal percentage over the expected percentage) from +4.5% in 2023 to +11% this season. While the sample size is small so far for 2024, it has risen from -1.7% in 2019, which is a pretty drastic increase.

New Orleans Saints kicker Blake Grupe ranks among the best in this statistic through Week 2, as he has a +33.0% field goal percentage over expected. This puts him at second in the league, behind only Ka’imi Fairbairn who has been off to a massive start this season. Grupe has missed only one kick this season, a PAT, but otherwise has drilled all five field goal attempts with a long of 57, as well as all of his remaining PAT attempts (10). He leads the league through two weeks in PATs scored and attempts as well.

A +23% over league average for Grupe in this analytic shows he is not only making field goals, but making difficult field goals, which is a great sign given he was put into a competition this offseason with rookie Charlie Smyth, which Grupe ultimately won. We will see how this analytic progresses in coming weeks with a larger sample size to look at.

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Stats show how badly Jared Goff struggled under pressure vs. Bucs

The advanced stat breakdown from Next Gen Stats shows how badly Jared Goff struggled under pressure vs. Bucs

Jared Goff has always been something of a tale of two quarterbacks, as Lions legend Herman Moore recently described. The Goff playing without pressure from the defense is consistently one of the NFL’s better quarterbacks. The Goff under pressure, well, not so much…

That was certainly the case in Detroit’s Week 2 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Goff posted some solid production with 307 passing yards, completing 34 of his 55 pass attempts. However, he did not throw a touchdown pass and did get picked twice, though one of those absolutely should have been defensive pass interference (the box score doesn’t care).

Part of the problem in the Lions loss, and a big reason why they only scored 16 points despite posting over 450 total yards, was that Goff had a very rough day when pressured by the Tampa Bay defense. The analytics folks behind Next Gen Stats revealed just how much Goff sputtered when pressured in Week 2.

Sandwiched between nuggets on Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels in the Zebra Technologies weekly newsletter is this unsavory tidbit on Goff,

Jared Goff went 9/17 for 117 yards, 2 INTs, and had a 35.3 passer rating when under pressure in the Lions’ home loss vs. Tampa Bay.

That’s a rough split from the overall statistics, and that’s also something that has been fairly characteristic of Goff’s NFL career.

 

Lions had the NFL’s best short-yardage run defense in 2023

The Detroit Lions had the NFL’s best short-yardage run defense in 2023 despite a rotating cast of NTs

The 2023 Detroit Lions defense wasn’t great at a lot of things, most of which involved the forward pass. But coordinator Aaron Glenn’s defense did accomplish a couple of very impressive feats in run defense.

No team allowed fewer rushing yards to opposing running backs than the Lions did a year ago. Stripping the quarterback (and WR) runs out of the equation, the Lions allowed just 3.5 yards per carry to running backs, good for third in the league, too.

Then there was the short-yardage situational defense, and the Lions pounced all over opposing offenses on this one. Facing 26 rushing attempts on 3rd-and-short in 2023, Detroit allowed just 13 successful conversions. That 50 percent stop rate was the best in the league, according to NFL Inside Edge, the data behind NextGen Stats.

 

The Lions accomplished this despite a largely rotating cast of nose tackles (Isaiah Buggs, Benito Jones, Tyson Alualu, Quinton Bohanna), none of whom are back with the team in 2024. End Aidan Hutchinson and LBs Alex Anzalone and Derrick Barnes all had multiple stops on third-and-short last year.

Is Jahmyr Gibbs really an effective receiver?

Is Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs really an effective receiver? The potential is there, but his rookie production says otherwise

One of the big assets for Jahmyr Gibbs is the Lions RB’s ability in the passing game. Gibbs is lightning quick in short areas and lethal in the open field. At Alabama, Gibbs was a definite receiving weapon, catching 44 passes for 444 yards in his final year for the Crimson Tide.

Yet as a rookie, Gibbs failed to deliver on the lofty receiving promise. Gibbs caught an impressive 52 passes in his first season in Detroit, but the volume quantity didn’t really produce a lot of quality for the Lions offense.

Only 20 of those 52 receptions produced first downs, a very low conversion rate. He also led all running backs in dropped passes with eight, according to data from NFL Inside Edge.

Gibbs didn’t exactly face a great degree of difficulty on his passing targets, either. His yards per target at the end of the season reveal a very simplistic and largely ineffective receiver.

Gibbs gained just 28 total receiving yards in the final four weeks last year on 13 passing targets. That 2.2 yards per target figure in that range was the lowest of any running back who saw at least 10 balls thrown his way.

 

The pass to the running back is a big staple of Ben Johnson’s offense, and Gibbs has shown the potential to be a major weapon. His rookie season did not necessarily live up to the hype on the reveiving front, however. It would be great if Gibbs could emerge as a more reliable and dangerous receing weapon.

PFF picks Kendre Miller as a fantasy football sleeper for 2024

PFF’s predictive stats identified Kendre Miller as a fantasy football sleeper for 2024. Advanced metrics aside, the Saints will be counting on him making big plays:

We can count the analysts at Pro Football Focus as fans of Kendre Miller’s upside. The New Orleans Saints running back has a ton of potential, which PFF’s Kate Magdziuk focused on when highlighting possible fantasy football sleepers for the 2024 season;

Using predictive “stable metrics” that cut through the noise to highlight the most important qualities for different positions, like elusiveness for running backs. Here’s what Magdziuk learned from that information and why they’re high on Miller:

The New Orleans Saints drafted Kendre Miller with the 72nd pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Unfortunately, a slew of injuries limited his efficiency and availability throughout the year, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. However, the advanced metrics tell a different tale.

In his limited playing time as a rookie, Miller did manage to impress, ranking in the 78th percentile or missed forced tackles per attempt (0.24), yards after contact per attempt (3.12), receiving grade (72.7) and yards per route run among running backs (2.17). Heading into the 2024 season now healthy, with an aging Alvin Kamara whose own rushing efficiency has significantly declined in the past three seasons, should provide Miller some opportunity that will pleasantly surprise fantasy managers willing to take a shot.

All that aside, we saw what Miller could do against a strong run defense in the regular season finale; he gained 73 rushing yards on just 13 carries against an Atlanta Falcons unit that had given up just 115.9 rushing yards per game going into Week 18. Miller ran well and did a great job following his blockers while showing some much-needed shiftiness in the open field.

Advanced stats aside, the Saints are counting on him making some big plays in 2024. Kamara and Jamaal Williams didn’t run with much juice last season, and the hope is for Klint Kubiak’s new staff and blocking scheme to make life easier for all three of the team’s running backs. Miller needs to prove he can stay healthy and play all 17 games after missing 9 of them last year, but he has the freshest legs of the trio. Let’s see if he can back up these impressive forecasts.

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