2022 Valero Texas Open odds, field, best bets, and PGA Tour picks

Who will grab a win a week before the year’s first major?

It’s going to be really tough to focus this week. The best seven days of the year are a mere six days away, and we just have to wait? It’s BS.

In the meantime, the PGA Tour is in San Antonio, Texas, for the Valero Texas Open, the home of Jordan Spieth’s return to the winner’s circle last season, a victory that broke a winless drought dating back to his major championship triumph at the 2017 Open.

Joining the Lone Star state local in this week’s field is Rory McIlroy, who’s switching up his Masters preparation this year. He took off the Match Play and will make his first start at TPC San Antonio since 2013 (he finished runner-up).

Golf course

TPC San Antonio | Par 72 | 7,438 yards

Valero Texas Open
The 18th hole at TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. (Photo: Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports)

Key statistics

Strokes Gained: Approach: The fairways are on the wider side, and the rough at TPC San Antonio is the least penalizing on Tour, according to DataGolf.com. That leaves SG: APP as a key component in score variation.

Strokes Gained: Around the Green: There are a plethora of tricky run-off areas around this track. Getting up and down on a regular basis will be at a premium.

Data Golf Information

Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. TPC Summerlin, 2. Monterey Penisula CC, 3. Nine Bridges

Trending: 1. Rory McIlroy (last three starts: T-10, T-13, T-33), 2. Hideki Matsuyama (T-8, T-39, T-20), 3. Corey Conners (T-11, T-26, 3)

Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Rory McIlroy (6.5 percent), 2. Hideki Matsuyama (4.4 percent), 3. Corey Conners (3.5 percent)

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Betting odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list.

Player Odds
Rory McIlroy (+750)
Hideki Matsuyama (+1500)
Jordan Spieth (+1500)
Corey Conners (+1500)
Abraham Ancer (+2000)
Chris Kirk (+3000)
Tony Finau (+3000)
Gary Woodland (+3000)
Si-Woo Kim (+3000)
Maverick McNealy (+3000)

Betting card for the 2022 Valero Texas Open

I got killed at the Match Play. Lost every bet. Matthew Fitzpatrick lost in a playoff to Scottie Scheffler to advance. Alex Noren lost a winner take all match against Corey Conners. Max Homa couldn’t take down Dustin Johnson.

Time to move on.

Up 12.69 units on position plays, and up 26.5 units on outright plays in 2022.

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Matthew NeSmith ties Copperhead course record with new mental approach, says, ‘I’m done with the anxiety. I’m done with trying so hard.’

“It’s fairly new, it’s quite uncomfortable, to be honest with you, but I’m excited to go through this weekend.”

PALM HARBOR, Fla. – Bobby Jones famously said that golf is a game played on a five-inch course, the space between your ears.

Matthew NeSmith can relate. The 28-year-old former South Carolina Gamecock torched Innisbrook’s Copperhead course to the tune of 10-under 61, a career-low that tied the course record.

NeSmith’s bogey-free round included eight birdies and an eagle as he improved to 14-under 128 and a two-stroke lead at the Valspar Championship over former champion Adam Hadwin.

NeSmith, who missed the cut last week at the Players Championship and hasn’t recorded a top-10 finish in 14 starts this season, said he’s improved his driving, chipping, and putting, but hasn’t played any better.

Valspar: PGA Tour Live on ESPN+

“At some point in time that falls on me and that falls on how I act and how I think and how I want to feel,” NeSmith said.

Fed up with getting in his own way, NeSmith decided to “let the chips fall where they may,” this week. So far, he’s bogey-free for 36 holes. He followed up an opening-round 67 with an eagle at 14 and birdies on six of the holes on the way to the clubhouse. The only thing that slowed NeSmith down was someone pouring a bucket of water or ice in a luxury box behind the green as he lined up his 18-foot birdie putt on the last. He backed off the putt twice and missed right of the hole to break the course record. NeSmith’s new mental approach, which included not writing down his scores until he reached the scoring area, has been paying quick dividends.

“I’m done with the anxiety,” he said. “I’m done with trying so hard.”

Hadwin, who followed up an opening-round 64 with a 5-under 66 in the morning wave, also credited his mental sharpness for his strong play through two rounds.

“My mind has been pretty good this week, staying patient, not getting too worried about any sort of missed shots or anything,” he said.

But Hadwin couldn’t pinpoint whether he had done anything differently to get into a better state of mind.

“I’m really trying to figure out whether it was the chicken or the egg, whether the good golf put me in a better mental state or my mental state put me playing better golf,” he said. “I find myself much more relaxed on the golf course. Some of those missed shots just aren’t bothering me as much.”

Scott Stallings and defending champion Sam Burns are tied for third at 11 under. Burns used a 40-foot eagle at the par-5 14th to jump start his round after a sluggish start and signed for 67.

“The 4-iron I hit on 14 was exactly how I wanted,” Burns said.

Matthew NeSmith plays his shot off the tee box of the 8th hole during the second round of the Valspar Championship golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Last year, Burns notched his first PGA Tour win at the Valspar. NeSmith would like to do the same and in doing so earn a berth to the Masters not far from where he grew up and lives in Aiken, South Carolina. To do so, he’ll likely have to keep going low and try to be comfortable with being uncomfortable with his mental approach.

“It’s fairly new, it’s quite uncomfortable, to be honest with you, but I’m excited to go through this weekend and try it and see what happens,” he said.

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Justin Thomas, Sam Burns betting favorites heading into weekend at Valspar Championship

Will Thomas win for the first time since the 2021 Players?

Matthew NeSmith played like Tiger Woods in his prime on Friday. Almost every putt he looked at fell in, and at the end of the day he signed for a 10-under 61 which tied the Copperhead course record. He leads the Valspar Championship heading into the weekend at 14 under.

Past champion Adam Hadwin sits two shots back at 12 under, looking for his first win on the PGA Tour since conquering Valspar in 2017 (his lone victory). With him at 12 under is Scott Stallings and last year’s champion Sam Burns.

Justin Thomas is doing Justin Thomas things and sits at 10 under after consecutive 66s.

After rain early in the week, the golf course looks to be drying out, making for perfect conditions over the weekend.

Here is an updated look at how the betting odds stand heading into Saturday in Palm Harbor, Florida.

Valspar: PGA Tour Live on ESPN+

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2022 Valspar Championship weekend betting odds

Player Odds
Justin Thomas (+320)
Sam Burns (+320)
Adam Hadwin (+410)
Matthew NeSmith (+410)
Scott Stallings (+1200)
Xander Schauffele (+1300)
Webb Simpson (+2400)
Louis Oosthuizen (+2500)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2600)
Brian Harman (+3900)

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A year after his debut PGA Tour win, Sam Burns shoots to top of the leaderboard at Valspar Championship

From the parking lot to the golf course, the defending champion is feeling right at home this week.

PALM HARBOR, Fla. – Sam Burns arrived at Innisbrook Resort, home of this week’s Valspar Championship, late Monday night and noticed his face on everything from banners to billboards to hotel keys. The defending champion’s mug is seemingly everywhere, and he even got a custom paint job on his parking spot.

“I don’t know who did it but they did a fantastic job with the eye of the Tiger there and then the state of Louisiana for the L in LSU,” he said. “Really well thought out, they did a great job.”

They may be able to re-use the same signs next year if Burns keeps burning up the Copperhead Course. The 25-year-old Louisiana native made birdie on his final two holes to shoot 7-under 64 and tie for the opening-round lead with Venezuela’s Jhonattan Vegas, former Valspar champion Adam Hadwin, who birdied four of his final five holes, and rookie David Lipsky.

Burns birdied half the holes, recording four deuces on the scorecard, including stuffing his tee shot at both the par-3 13th and 17th holes to 2 feet, and three of the four par 5s.

Vegas went out early and fired 7-under 64, which included a 4-iron to 6-feet that set up eagle at the first hole, his 10th of the day. Vegas made an early exit from the Players Championship last week despite playing in the good wave that didn’t have to battle with the worst of the weather.

“But I still screwed up 17,” said Vegas of his second-round 78 at TPC Sawgrass.

Valspar: Leaderboard | Best photos | PGA Tour Live on ESPN+

He switched to an old set of Mizuno MP-4 irons and found the Copperhead Course more to his liking. Vegas, who hasn’t notched a single top-10 finish this season, gained nearly two strokes on the field with his iron play and more than 3 ½ with his putter.

“Exactly what I needed after last week. Game was there. I took advantage of the great conditions this morning,” Vegas said. “Absolutely a perfect day out here. So, yeah, lucky to have shot a nice 64.”

On a sunny day with mild winds and soft greens from recent storms, the field painted the scoreboard red with birdies galore. Eighty-nine players in the field, including amateur Jackson Suber of Ole Miss, broke par.

“While I was in the scoring tent, everyone is like, that was the craziest 7-under we’ve ever seen,” Lipsky said. “I just sort of did everything that you’re supposed to do, and then when that happens you play well.”

Danny Lee, Scott Stallings and Richy Werenski were among a group a stroke back of the leaders after 6-under 65s.

“I always like this place,” Lee said. “I wish I can play like this every day. But it’s nice to play under normal conditions again, the last two weeks have been brutally tough and mentally and physically.”

Justin Thomas is among the players who arrived weary from a long start-stop week that stretched into Monday at the Players. He said he slept nearly 10 hours ahead of his Thursday afternoon tee time.

“I woke up and played like a zombie,” said Thomas, who couldn’t buy a putt early on and was even par through his first 10 holes. “I was rolling it exactly where I wanted to and just burning the edge and lipping out some of them.”

His caddie, Jim “Bones” Mackay, advised him to stay patient.

“If we can just get this lid to come off, some of them might start going in,” Thomas said.

He did just that in a big way. Thomas lofted a high-cut 3-wood from 252 yards at the par-5 14th that stopped 64 feet beyond the hole and then drained the putt. It was the third-longest made putt of his PGA Tour career.

“Clearly you’ve been hitting it too close to the hole today,” playing competitor Kevin Kisner teased.

Thomas’s ball-striking was on point. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach the green and SG: Tee to Green, but ranked 114th in putting, losing more than a stroke to the field despite making the bomb at 14. Thomas knocked a 9-iron inside 2 feet at No. 16 for another birdie to play the three-hole stretch starting at 14 in 4 under and signed for 66.

“The greens are very difficult to read, they are very subtle,” Thomas said. “They are always going to be a little bit more chewed up in the afternoon, so, we’ll get some fresh ones tomorrow morning and maybe we’ll fill it up.”

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Joel Dahmen, Pat Perez among sleeper picks to win the 2022 Valspar Championship

Among all the big names, there are several sleepers to keep an eye on in Tampa.

After a wild week in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, at the Players, the PGA Tour heads to Tampa for the Valspar Championship.

Sam Burns enters the week as the defending champion and sits at +2000.

Despite a late finish at TPC Sawgrass, some of the best players in the world are still in the field to tee it up at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort.

Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, and Collin Morikawa all sit at +1000 to win.

Despite numerous big names, there are several players further down the odds list that have a great chance of hoisting the hardware come Sunday afternoon (or at least we can hope it’ll be Sunday afternoon).

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Sleeper picks for the 2022 Genesis Invitational include defending champion Max Homa

Max Homa won the Genesis Invitational last year at +7000. Can his buddy Joel Dahmen follow in his footsteps?

It’s almost time for one of the best events on the PGA Tour. The Genesis Invitational delivers every single year, with the biggest stars in the sport annually finding the top of the leaderboard by the weekend.

Although the field consists of each of the top 10 players in the world, there are numerous names further down the odds list that have a chance to hoist the trophy come Sunday.

Last season, California native Max Homa entered the week at +7000 to win and left Riviera Country Club victorious. Will another underdog triumph this week? We’ll have to wait and see.

If you’re looking outside the favorites in L.A., here’s a list of five longshots who may just compete for the title this weekend.

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Five underdog picks for Genesis Invitational

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list.

Max Homa (+5000)

WM Phoenix Open 2022
Max Homa hits his tee shot on the 13th hole during the third round of the 2022 WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

It’s hard to call the defending champion an underdog, but Homa enters the week at +5000. The L.A. native is coming off a solid performance in the desert, finishing T-14 at the WM Phoenix Open. This golf course means everything to him and has called it his favorite course on the planet.

Outside of his win at Riviera, Homa finished T-5 here in 2020.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000)

Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick tees off on the 10th hole during the first round of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course. (Photo by Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)

Again, tough to call a player sitting at +4000 to win an underdog, but remember, Fitzpatrick has yet to win on the PGA Tour.

The Englishman is playing really good golf so far in 2022, racking up a T-6 finish at Pebble Beach a few weeks ago and a T-10 at last week’s WM Phoenix Open. Fitzpatrick finished T-30 at Riviera two years ago and T-5 last season.

Alex Noren (+9000)

Alex Noren watches his drive off the fourth tee during the final round of the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic at the Detroit Golf Club. (Photo: Carlos Osorio/Associated Press)

There’s a big number. Noren has finally found some form over the last several months and is back to playing the golf we saw him play a few years ago.

After missing the cut at the American Express to start his 2022, Noren finished inside the top 40 at Torrey Pines and grabbed a T-6 at the WM Phoenix Open. The Swede tied for 12th at Riviera last season and had another top 20 back in 2018.

Adam Hadwin (+10000)

Fortinet Championship
Adam Hadwin hits his tee shot on the seventh hole during round one of the Fortinet Championship at Silverado Resort and Spa on September 16, 2021, in Napa, California. (Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images)

The Canadian is coming into the week a bit under the radar. He ended the week in Scottsdale tied for 26th, but he played much better than that shows. He limped home on Sunday shooting 74, but in his previous three rounds, 68 was his worst score.

Despite missing the cut at the Farmers, Hadwin grabbed a T-25 at the American Express and a T-16 at Pebble Beach. In seven starts at Riviera, Hadwin has finished 26th or better in five, which includes a career-best T-6 in 2018.

Joel Dahmen (+20000)

WM Phoenix Open 2022
Joel Dahmen and Harry Higgs take their shirts off on the 16th hole during the final round of the 2022 WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. (Photo: Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)

Dahmen has a chance to contend this weekend, but any opportunity to use this photo in a story is just too hard to pass up.

Dahmen has missed the cut at the Genesis in three of his four starts at Riviera, but the one weekend he did make ended with a top five. He was in the mix a few weeks ago at Pebble, eventually tying for 6th.

Not sure we’ll see this move again even if he wins. But hey, ya never know.

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Hats off to Adam Hadwin, who shoots 66 to lead fellow Canadian Nick Taylor by 1 stroke at Workday Charity Open

Adam Hadwin grabbed the early lead with 66 while Nick Taylor, in his first start since the Tour resumed play, posted a bogey-free 67.

Canada Day was last week, but try telling that to British Columbia boys’ Adam Hadwin and Nick Taylor.

The Canadian pair enjoyed a parade of birdies – and for Taylor even an eagle – on their way to the top of the leaderboard during the first round of the Workday Charity Open in Dublin, Ohio.

Hadwin, 32, who was born in Moose Jaw, posted the low round of the morning wave, a 6-under 66 at Muirfield Village Golf Club to grab a one-stroke lead among early finishers over Taylor, Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama and American Zach Johnson. Hadwin fired a final-round 67 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic on Sunday to finish T-4, his best result since the calendar flipped to 2020.

“It’s been building for a while,” he said.

Hadwin got off to an inauspicious start on Thursday with a bogey at No. 10, his first hole of the day, but it turned out to be the only blemish on his card. His reliable putting stroke took care of business, holing a 16-foot birdie at 14 and after stiffing his approach from 173 yards at 18 and from 126 yards at No. 2, Hadwin drilled a 22-footer at 7 and a 19-footer at 9 to finish in style.


Tee times, TV info | Field by the rankings | Photos | Leaderboard

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Muirfield Village is hosting the PGA Tour back-to-back weeks so the course setup has been adjusted to protect the course for doing double duty. Hadwin said it still isn’t a pushover and he didn’t play more aggressively on a warm, but otherwise picture-perfect day for golf.

“I’m a firm believer in sort of easing myself into weeks and getting more aggressive as that goes along, as you sort of build some comfort with the golf course and with how you’re swinging and stuff,” he said.

Hadwin and Taylor are old pals, who played together as teenagers at Ledgeview Golf and Country Club in their hometown of Abbotsford, B.C. Neither ranks among the longer hitters on Tour, relying instead on precision and a wonderful touch around the greens. They’re also adjusting to life as new parents. Hadwin’s wife, Jessica, gave birth to their daughter Maddox on Jan. 8, while Taylor became a father himself last year. His wife Andie and his son Charlie were waiting by the 18th green when Taylor capped off a four-stroke victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February.

Taylor’s bogey-free round of 67 began with a string of six pars before a 2-putt birdie at the par-5 seventh. The 32-year-old canned a 33-foot birdie at 10 and then drilled a fairway wood from 270 yards to 3 feet and made eagle at the par-5 11th. Taylor, who ranked first in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, stuck his approach from 150 to 3 feet to close with another birdie.

Taylor’s second career victory ended a six-year drought, and the two-year exemption that comes with it allowed him to pick and choose his schedule and the luxury of skipping the first four events since the Tour resumption in June.

“I just really enjoyed being home, so just waiting an extra few weeks, was great to be home,” he said.

While he surely changed his fair share of diapers for his eight-month-old during his extended break from the Tour, Taylor said he also played a good deal the last month and has his coach with him this week, but nonetheless was pleased with his start.

“I know competitive rust is definitely a thing I’ve had to struggle with in the past,” he said.

Nick Taylor plays his shot from the tenth tee during the first round of the Workday Charity Open golf tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Photo by Joseph Maiorana/USA TODAY Sports)

And how did he describe the kinder, gentler Muirfield Village?

“It’s gettable,” Taylor said. “The greens are very soft. The rough is probably not as high as I’ve seen in previous years, but you still have to hit good shots.”

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Watch PGA Tour player’s hilarious interaction with rules official: ‘Screw you, but thanks’

On Thursday at the RBC Heritage, Adam Hadwin jokingly told a rules official “screw you” after it was confirmed that he received a penalty.

The PGA Tour is back, and while fans are not yet allowed to return to the course to provide the atmosphere on-course we’re used to, a new push to have players mic’d up throughout their rounds has led to some funny moments already. Last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial, Jim Nantz had to apologize on air after Jon Rahm dropped an F-bomb after holing a chip. On Thursday at the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town, Adam Hadwin jokingly told a rules official “screw you” after it was confirmed that he received a penalty.

In a bunker, Hadwin picked up and removed a rock, which he is permitted to do because of a rule change in 2019, as a rock in a bunker is now classified as a movable loose impediment. Hadwin then tried to remove a second rock – but the rock “crumbled” in his hand as he moved it, as it was actually just a clump of sand. Hadwin explained the situation in a mic’d up conversation with PGA Tour senior tournament referee Mark Dusbabek, who had to give Hadwin the bad news.

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Brooks Koepka sounds off on players being mic’ed up on TV

Brooks Koepka is the latest to weigh in on whether PGA Tour pros should wear microphones during tournaments.

Reigning PGA Championship winner Brooks Koepka is fast becoming a man of many opinions and he offered his two cents on the recent discussion of whether PGA Tour players should wear microphones during tournament telecasts.

“I don’t understand why they want us to wear a mic when there’s a boom mic that stands 10 feet away from every shot that I hit,” he said. “If the announcers would just shut up and listen, you could hear every word that we’re talking about.”

In other words, don’t expect Koepka to be volunteering to wear a microphone any time soon.

Television networks have been begging golfers to wear microphones for decades. It was first tested out in 1980s, and quickly shot down by players. In more recent times, players on the Korn Ferry Tour have been more willing to experiment during Golf Channel broadcasts.

The subject gained steam recently when pros were wired for sound at the two televised exhibitions for charity that aired last month and Phil Mickelson, in particular, showed the potential when he diagrammed how he was going to play a pitch shot in real time.

Rickie Fowler served as a guinea pig at last week’s Charles Schwab Championship and Adam Hadwin wore a mic during the opening round of the RBC Heritage, but they appear to be in the minority who have raised their hand.

Hadwin estimated upwards of 20 percent of players would be willing to do so, while Joel Dahmen guessed it’s probably closer to 50 percent, according to The Athletic.


Leaderboard | Photos | How to watch | Tee times | Updates


“I think there can be a lot of value to it, depending on how it’s done,” Hadwin told The Athletic.

“That’s why I’m interested in doing it. It’s something new, and I’m willing to try anything once.”

Justin Thomas was one of the first players to raise an objection.

“I would not wear a mic, no. That’s not me. What I talk about with (caddie Jimmy Johnson) and what I talk about with the guys in my group is none of anybody else’s business, no offense.”

Herein lies the problem: the players that golf fans most want to hear from see nothing to gain and too much to lose. And then there’s Koepka who suggests the easy solution is for announcers to just pipe down.

“I don’t understand what the thing is. Half the time the lady’s holding a boom mic and she’s listening to everything we’re saying all the way down,” he said. “If they would just shut up, they could hear everything.”

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Player pushes back on Jim Nantz’s claim that only Rickie Fowler volunteered to wear mic

One PGA Tour player has pushed back on Jim Nantz’s claim that only Rickie Fowler volunteered to wear mic this week in Texas.

The ongoing conversation surrounding players wearing mics took an interesting turn this weekend.

On Thursday, PGA Tour fans weren’t just treated to professional golf’s first round in three months. Viewers were able to listen to a mic’d-up Rickie Fowler make his way around Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, during the Charles Schwab Challenge’s opening round.

During Saturday’s broadcast, Jim Nantz said that Fowler was the lone player to volunteer to wear a mic.

“Audio is such an important part of any sport’s broadcast,” said Nantz. “Without fans on the course, we’re hoping to hear more of the exchanges between players and caddies. We invited every player in the tournament to wear a mic if they wished during tournament play. We had Rickie Fowler take us up on that on Thursday. We were grateful. That’s the only one so far who has volunteered.”

Adam Hadwin disagrees.

Currently ranked No. 55 in the world, Hadwin commented on an Instagram post saying he volunteered to wear a mic (noted by Golf.com’s Dylan Dethier).

No other players have chimed in saying they also volunteered, but you can bet that Justin Thomas won’t be one of them.

“I would not wear a mic, no. That’s not me,” Thomas said earlier in the week. “What I talk about with (caddie) Jimmy (Johnson) and what I talk about with the guys in my group is none of anybody else’s business, no offense. I mean, as close as those mics are on the tees and the greens and as close as I get to boom mics during competition anyway, I basically feel like I am mic’d up.”

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