Tag: 49ers stats

49ers lead NFL in crucial offensive category by a lot over last 3 years

The 49ers create so many explosive plays it’s ridiculous.

The San Francisco 49ers haven’t built a perfect NFL offense, but it’s not far off when their group is fully healthy.

It’s easy to point to various metrics like points and yards and yards per play to validate just how good San Francisco’s offense has been over the last three seasons. There’s another stat that perhaps best defines what makes the 49ers special on that side of the ball.

Since 2022, no team has created more explosive plays than the 49ers. An explosive play is a run of 10-plus yards or a pass of 20-plus yards. The distance between San Francsico and No. 2 on that list is greater than the difference between Nos. 2 and 5.

Here are the explosive play leaders from the 2022 season through Week 4 of the 2024 campaign, via the 49ers communications staff:

1. San Francisco 49ers, 300
2. Baltimore Ravens, 276
3. Detroit Lions, 269
4. Philadelphia Eagles, 267
5. Miami Dolphins, 255

They figure to be at or near the top of the league again this season. In 2024 the 49ers have created 34 explosives. That’s just four behind the NFL-leading Green Bay Packers.

If they’re able to manage six explosives Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals, it’ll be the fourth time they’ve reached the 40 mark through five games in franchise history. The last time they did it was in 2019 when they had 43 such plays in five games.

There’s a good chance they’ll hit that mark, and they have a chance of eclipsing the 2019 number. They’re already averaging 8.5 explosives per game, and now they’ll face a Cardinals defense that’s given up 22 such plays this season. That’s tied for the 12th-most in the NFL.

If the 49ers can continue creating explosives this season, their offense will be in a good spot to compete for a championship.

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How 49ers adjusted defensive scheme after loss of star DL

An interesting defensive adjustment helped the 49ers win on Sunday.

It seemed inevitable the San Francisco 49ers were going to need to try something different schematically given how the first three weeks went.

The 49ers in those games were dreadful on third downs and allowing the third-most yards per play in the NFL. It was a far cry from the dominant efforts we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from San Francisco’s defenses.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan indicated some schematic changes may be necessary, especially once defensive tackle Javon Hargrave went down and dramatically altered the strength of the 49ers’ pass rush on the defensive front.

One of those schematic changes popped up in Sunday’s win over the Patriots when the 49ers started blitzing heavily.

Per ESPN Research, the 49ers blitzed on only 14 percent of opposing quarterback dropbacks through the first three weeks. That number skyrocketed to 33 percent against the Patriots and quarterback Jacoby Brissett on Sunday.

In an ideal world the 49ers won’t need to throw as many blitzes at a QB to get pressure on them. However, the NFL is about adapting and San Francisco’s personnel dictates something has to be done differently with its defense.

Perhaps the blitzing sticks and they become a more blitz-heavy team. Perhaps they do something a little different each week where we see new wrinkles to the way they attack opposing offenses.

Whatever they did Sunday worked like a charm, though. The Patriots went at a paltry 3.5 yards per play and their lone touchdown came off a 49ers fumble that placed them at San Francisco’s 27 to start the drive.

So far, so good on the schematic adjustments on defense. Now they need to find the right button to push against a much better Arizona Cardinals offense in Week 5.

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49ers rising star QB off to best statistical start to career in team history

Brock Purdy’s numbers through his first 25 starts are going to be absurd.

It’s tough to get off to a better start than San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy has in his career.

In fact, it’s so hard that no other QB in the 49ers’ storied history of quarterbacks has been as good as Purdy has. He has a chance to set a slew of benchmarks for San Francisco signal callers in his 25th start Sunday against the New England Patriots.

Purdy didn’t even need a 25th start to set new high watermarks in several statistical categories. He’s at a 69.7 percent completion rate, 46 touchdowns and a 113.6 passer rating through 24 games. Those numbers are all highs through 25 games and Purdy hasn’t even started his 25th game yet.

If he throws for at least 278 yards Sunday he’ll have the most passing yards by a 49ers QB through his first 25 starts as well. That’s made even more impressive by the fact he needs 15 completions to reach the No. 3 spot in completions over that stretch. First in yards, third in completions would be a nice summary of the efficiency that has helped define Purdy in the early portion of his career.

This start for Purdy is why the 49ers are ultimately going to give him a massive long-term extension this offseason. How he grows through his next 25 starts will determine just how far San Francisco can go with him under center. If his numbers look like they did in his first 25 starts, they should be good for a long time.

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49ers need more from biggest offseason free agent signing

The spotlight is officially on the #49ers’ biggest offseason addition.

The San Francisco 49ers had a glaring problem on defense. That problem was exacerbated Sunday when star defensive tackle Javon Hargrave suffered a partially torn triceps that will require season-ending surgery.

Rushing the passer is something the 49ers have established as a foundation of their defensive success. It’s why they spent the No. 2 overall pick on defensive end Nick Bosa in 2019, and it’s why they’ve utilized a bevy of resources along the defensive line throughout the tenures of head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch.

That part of their defense is off to a slow start in 2024, and now improvement is a steep uphill climb without Hargrave.

One way they can improve is by simply getting more out of defensive end Leonard Floyd who signed a two-year, $20 million contract with $12 million guaranteed this offseason.

Floyd had a sack and four pressures in Week 1 according to Pro Football Focus. He’s been silent since then. PFF has him down for just one pressure, no sacks and no quarterback hits over the last two games.

That’s not going to cut it for a player some deemed as the best edge rusher the 49ers have had opposite Bosa.

While Floyd has gotten off to a slow start, there’s reason for optimism that he’ll bounce back. Throughout his career there are a slew of two and three game stretches where he’ll be ostensibly absent from the pass rush before breaking out with big numbers.

The problem for the 49ers is they can’t afford for Floyd to go missing. They’re relying heavily on him to provide pressure off the edge across from Bosa. That reliance only increases with Hargrave’s injury.

A consistently good Floyd who is racking up 9.5 or 10.0 sacks would be a tremendous boost for the 49ers’ struggling defense. The sooner he breaks out of his slump and turns into that player, the better.

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Explosive plays evading 49ers in 2024, making life harder on offense

One big way the 49ers are missing Christian McCaffrey…

There’s one very distinct problem facing the San Francisco 49ers’ offense so far in 2024.

Thanks in part to an injury to running back Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers are struggling to create explosive plays the way they did last season. As a result, San Francisco has been forced to churn out longer scoring drives in 2024.

Last season through two weeks the 49ers generated 15 explosive plays (20-plus yard passes and 10-plus yard runs). That’s the same number they’ve generated this season.

However, nine of their 15 explosives last season came on the ground with two of them going for 50-plus yards. This season just six of their 15 explosives have come on the ground with none of the runs eclipsing 24 yards.

Three of the 49ers’ explosive plays went for touchdowns last season, all of them runs. McCaffrey ripped off a 65 yarder in Week 1 and a 14-yard touchdown dash in Week 2. Deebo Samuel had an 11-yard touchdown in Week 2.

This season only one of the 49ers’ explosives has gone for a touchdown – Jordan Mason’s 10-yard run against the Vikings.

The 49ers in 2024 have six explosive runs that have accounted for a total of 91 yards. That’s an average of 15.2 per explosive carry. That average pales in comparison to what they did last season. In Week 1 alone they had 121 rushing yards on five explosive rushes. In Week 2 they had four such runs for 93 yards. In total they averaged 23.8 yards per run on nine explosive carries.

One of the results of the lack of explosives is an uptick in plays needed to score touchdowns.

In 2023 the 49ers had six touchdown drives in their first two games. One of them was a two-play drive, three were seven-play jaunts, one was nine plays, another was 11.

Without McCaffrey their TD drives dipped to just four through two weeks. One was a five-play drive against the Vikings. It’s not a coincidence that series featured their two longest plays of the game – a 28-yard pass to Samuel and a 22-yard run by Mason.

San Francisco’s other three TD drives this season have been 11 plays, 12 plays and 12 plays.

This is something they’ll need to figure out quick. Sustaining long drives is something the 49ers are good at, but it’s neither efficient nor conducive to racking up points.

Samuel and George Kittle’s absences in Week 3 won’t make life easier for the 49ers. They’re responsible for one-third of the team’s explosives in 2024.

Perhaps we see more of rookie running back Isaac Guerendo in hopes his speed leads to some home run plays. Rookie wide receiver Jacob Cowing is also electric with the ball in his hands and may need touches to provide an offensive spark.

There’s more than one problem for San Francisco to iron out this season, but generating explosive plays has to be at the top of the list. Without those it’ll be an uphill climb on offense all year.

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Numbers say 49ers WR trending toward All-Pro form despite slow start

Brandon Aiyuk was open a lot in Week 2. Brock Purdy has to start finding him.

It appears the San Francisco 49ers are quickly seeing some of the adversity generated when a wide receiver misses all of training camp.

Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and quarterback Brock Purdy haven’t been able to get on the same page in the 49ers’ first two games. Aiyuk, who missed all of training camp because of dispute over a long-term contract extension, has 10 targets so far this season. He’s hauled in six of them for 71 yards. His longest catch went for 22 yards.

Part of the blame can fall on his playing time. Through two weeks he’s played 73 percent of the 49ers’ offensive snaps. Last year he played in 82 percent. In 2022 he was at 91 percent.

There’s more to it than just playing time, and there appears to be more to it than just Aiyuk getting in playing shape. While playing shape may have been a problem in Week 1, peripheral stats indicate Purdy just didn’t get Aiyuk the ball in Week 2.

Pro Football Focus ran the numbers on separation for pass catchers through two weeks. They have a metric called ‘separation percentage’ which aims to measure “how often a receiver beats the coverage to get open rather than benefiting from a defense more focused on limiting yards after the catch or stopping them short of the first down,” according to their website.

Week 1 wasn’t good for Aiyuk. He created separation on only four of his 12 opportunities. Those numbers help paint the picture of why he earned only five targets.

Week 2 was substantially better. Per PFF he had 14 opportunities and gained separation on 12 of them. His 85.71 separation percentage was the sixth-best in the NFL in Week 2. Alas, the uptick in separation didn’t lead to an uptick in targets. Purdy threw him the ball only five times again.

This is something that has to get remedied immediately. All indications are that Aiyuk is trending quickly toward his All-Pro form. Purdy now needs to look his way with more frequency. That was always going to be the case, but there’s a dramatic uptick in urgency with Deebo Samuel joining Christian McCaffrey on the sidelines with a calf injury.

Purdy and Aiyuk need to get on the same page because the quicker they do, the quicker the 49ers can overcome injuries and solve some of the offensive issues that have plagued them on third down and in the red zone so far in 2024.

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49ers offense falls off in ESPN analyst’s bold prediction

An ESPN prediction has the 49ers offense falling off some. We don’t see it.

The San Francisco 49ers are returning virtually all of their starters on offense in 2024.

That’s a significant deal considering how dominant they were on that side of the ball last season. They ranked No. 1 in points scored, offensive efficiency, and offensive EPA per play according to ESPN.

Their only change to their starting lineup will be at right guard where rookie third-round pick Dominick Puni figures to step in for the rotation of Spencer Burford and Jon Feliciano.

Despite all that, ESPN analytics guru Seth Walder made an offensive dip his bold prediction for the 49ers’ 2024 season. Via ESPN:

The 49ers’ middling offensive line play will catch up to them and they’ll fall out of the top four offenses in the league (in terms of expected points added per play) as a result. The only lineman they can feel great about is left tackle Trent Williams, and even he carries risk, given that he’s 36 years old and currently holding out. Left guard Aaron Banks, center Jake Brendel, right guard Spencer Burford and right tackle Colton McKivitz all showed weakness in either run or pass block win rate last season.

This is becoming a theme in the pre-season analysis of the 49ers. Their offensive line is an easy weak spot on the roster to point to, and Walder did so with his prediction. He doesn’t mention Puni, but a rookie third-round pick wouldn’t like alter the projection much.

Williams did return to the fold and will get three days of practice in before Week 1. He joins Banks on the left side with Brendel at center. Puni will man right guard alongside McKivitz.

There certainly could be a dip in offensive production if the offensive line falters. However, the 49ers have a good track record under head coach Kyle Shanahan of piecing together offense behind a questionable offensive line. That group had some bad moments last season, but it certainly wasn’t terrible. Puni could also provide an upgrade at RG.

With quarterback Brock Purdy getting a full offseason under his belt without requiring rehab for a major elbow injury and the return of all but one starter on offense, we’ll lean toward San Francisco once again generating a top three NFL offense and proving Walder’s prediction wrong.

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Is Brock Purdy a ‘dink and dunk’ quarterback?

There are plenty of valid critiques of Brock Purdy. This isn’t one of them:

We’re 21 regular season starts into Brock Purdy’s career and there remains a handful of common criticisms against the 49ers’ quarterback. Some of those criticisms are fair, others are not. Perhaps the loudest misconception of San Francisco’s signal caller is that he’s a “dink and dunk” quarterback. The implication being that Purdy doesn’t push the ball down the field, and instead checks down with short throws and allows his stable of elite after-the-catch weapons to do the heavy lifting.

While there are some instances where that is the case – denying the 49ers’ collective after-the-catch prowess would be misguided – the “dink and dunk” label is largely anecdotal since the numbers overwhelmingly say otherwise.

Let’s define “dink and dunk” here. There’s plenty of nuance to it, but for the sake of this piece we’re calling it short throws (0-9 yards beyond the line of scrimmage) and throws behind the LOS.

Purdy last season tied for No. 33 in percentage of throws behind the line of scrimmage among 37 qualifying QBs per Pro Football Focus. Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa were Nos. 3-5, respectively.

Short throws are the same story. Among 42 qualified QBs, Purdy ranked 34th in short throw rate. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott was No. 7 in this category.

Now, it is true that Purdy doesn’t spend a ton of time chucking the ball deep. His 10.3 percent deep throw rate was tied for 27th in the NFL (he still finished ahead of Mahomes).

On the other hand, he made the most of the deep throws he did make. Purdy was PFF’s highest-graded passer on throws 20-plus yards beyond the line of scrimmage thanks in part to his 57.9 percent completion rate on those throws (No. 2 in the NFL) and his 12-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio.

Since he wasn’t throwing it short or deep a ton, the intermediate area of the field is where Purdy thrived last season. He threw it 10-to-19 yards beyond the LOS 25.9 percent of the time – the third-highest rate in the league behind Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo and Texans QB CJ Stroud. Tagovailoa was right behind Purdy. It’s not a coincidence that Nos. 2-4 had either Kyle Shanahan or former Shanahan assistants as play callers.

Purdy didn’t have as much success in the intermediate area of the field last season as he did as a rookie, but the volume was still among the highest in the league. It helped him tie for 12th in the NFL with Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence and Bills QB Josh Allen in average depth of target. He finished ahead of Prescott (No. 15), Geno Smith and Justin Herbert (tied for No. 18), Tagovailoa (No. 22) and Mahomes (No. 37).

It is true that Purdy gets help from his offensive weapons and his play caller. That’s the case for a lot of QBs though, and those are critiques separate from the “dink and dunk” one.

The fact of the matter is Purdy does push the ball down the field. He also has some designed screens and check downs that help him out, but he utilizes them at a much lower rate than we see elsewhere around the league. Perhaps Purdy isn’t a franchise QB. Perhaps he can’t be the rising tide that lifts all boats once the team has lost some of its stellar offensive arsenal. Those things remain to be seen, but one thing we can conclude is that Purdy is not a “dink and dunk” quarterback.

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Trent Williams vs. Micah Parsons matchup an easy pick

Micah Parsons vs. Trent Williams isn’t as good of a hypothetical matchup as it looks like on paper.

Let’s get something out of the way up top here. There are a lot of very good edge rushers in the NFL. One of them is Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons, who is a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

It makes sense that the 33rd Team, an NFL site that provides analysis from a ton of former players, current players and executives, would aim for some social media engagement by including Parsons in a hypothetical pass rusher-offensive lineman matchup. It makes less sense that his opponent in their hypothetical matchup is 49ers left tackle Trent Williams.

The 33rd Team on Sunday posted this on Twitter:

The numbers on the graphic are genuinely compelling. It’s a player who racks up a ton of sacks facing a player who does not give up very many sacks. Pitting the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object is a good way to spark debate.

Alas, there’s a flaw in this hypothetical. We’ve seen it play out when Parsons faces the 49ers, and it doesn’t go well for the Cowboys do-everything LB.

In three career games against Williams and San Francisco, including two playoff games, Parsons has 17 tackles, one tackle for loss, 13 pressures, one quarterback hit, and 0.0 sacks.

Conversely, in those same three games, Williams has allowed neither a sack nor QB hit while giving up just three total pressures.

Parsons bounces around the line when he plays San Francisco, lining up over both the left and right tackles so it isn’t just a straight across Williams vs. Parsons matchup every time. He hasn’t had much sustained success against any 49ers offensive lineman though, much less Williams.

Alas, the answer to the hypothetical presented by the 33rd Team is a simple one. We’ll take Williams, the player who has already won this matchup repeatedly in games that matter.

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1 area Brock Purdy must improve in 2024

Brock Purdy was really good last year, but he has one key area he needs to improve moving forward:

49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was excellent in the 2023 season. In his first full season as a starter Purdy broke the 49ers single-season passing yards record, finished fourth in MVP voting, and led the NFL in touchdown rate, yards per attempt, passer rating and QBR. Despite the gaudy numbers though there’s one glaring area Purdy has to improve in.

The bread and butter for San Francisco’s passing offense is the middle of the field. For Purdy in particular it’s the intermediate area (10-19 yards beyond the line of scrimmage) in the middle of the field. While he was dynamite on those throws in his rookie season, he struggled there last year as the league started to catch on to what the 49ers offense was going to look like with Purdy in it.

Purdy on intermediate throws overall completed 65.7 percent of his 143 throws for 1,798 yards, 10 touchdowns and six interceptions.

Splitting the field into horizontal thirds though it becomes clear where the problem area is for the 49ers QB.

On throws to the middle of the field at the 10-19 yard depth, Purdy threw all six of his intermediate interceptions and had a whopping 10 turnover worthy plays according to Pro Football Focus. He had seven turnover worthy plays in all other areas of the field combined. That cannot continue to be the case if Purdy is going to continue ascending as a quarterback.

The good news is there are ways to fix this problem. A culprit for the high amount of TWPs in the intermediate middle could just be the lack of offseason work for Purdy. Because he was rehabbing his elbow, Purdy didn’t get to have a regular offseason where he got to be in practices repping things he saw on film. Training camp began by the time he was able to play so the time to improve was over and preparations for the season were underway.

This offseason will give him an opportunity to see what defenses were doing to him on those plays and start deciphering ways to counter it.

The bad news is there’s always going to be some level of risk in the way Purdy plays because he’s not afraid to let it rip if he sees (or thinks he sees) a window. His lack of elite physical tools are going to get him into some  trouble on tight-window throws. Limiting such plays will be crucial though. Sometimes a defender is going to make a play, but Purdy has to start cutting down on the interceptions or near interceptions where a defender is able to make an easy read in the middle of the field to step in and get hands on the football.

Once those throws are cut down, we’ll really see Purdy start elevating the 49ers offense as an out-of-structure playmaker. We’ve seen glimpses of it, but now the next evolution for him in 2024 will be holding the ball when defenders are waiting in the middle of the field and making a play on his own when that throw isn’t available. When he does that more consistently it’s going to be almost impossible to slow a 49ers offense that is already one of the NFL’s best.

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