49ers biggest cause for concern vs. Packers is familiar flaw in 2024

The Packers biggest strength this year is one of the 49ers biggest weaknesses.

Finding one clear issue with the San Francisco 49ers this season is nigh impossible. They’ve been plagued by a slew of problems throughout their 5-5 start.

All of those shortcomings have culminated one overarching flaw: the 49ers can’t close games.

They’ve had fourth quarter leads in three of their five defeats, and four of their five losses have been by one score. Their inability to finish games could rear its head again Sunday in a crucial matchup with the Green Bay Packers.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan on Wednesday in a press conference was asked about Brock Purdy’s up-and-down season, and used it as an opportunity to identify why the team’s inability to close teams out could be a problem in Green Bay.

“And to me that’s come all the way down to how we finish games,” Shanahan said. “And we’ve had four games here that have come down to the last two possessions and we’ve only won one of those. And that’s the difference between eight-and-two and five-and-five with the one we won being Tampa. In contrast, you look at a team like Green Bay, they’ve had seven games come down to the last possession and they’ve won six of them, with the only one they lost being the opening game versus Philly. And that’s why they have such a good record.”

The only Packers games to not be decided by one score this year were a 30-14 blowout win over the Tennessee Titans, a 34-13 win over the Arizona Cardinals, and a 24-14 loss to the Detroit Lions.

Their close wins involved blocking a Chicago Bears field goal last week and getting a walk-off field goals vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans the two weeks prior. Their 24-19 win against the Los Angeles Rams saw their defense hold late after LA got down inside the Packers 40.

Their penchant for winning close games has helped them hold the No. 6 seed in the NFC, two games ahead of San Francisco.

If the 49ers can figure out a way to get and hold a late lead against Green Bay on Sunday it would go a long way toward helping them get back on the path to a playoff berth. The problem is they’ve yet to show that ability this season, and failing to do so again Sunday could put them well outside the playoff picture with only six games to go.

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49ers found new way to lose in Week 11 vs. Seahawks

Good news: Special teams didn’t lose the 49ers a game on Sunday. Bad news: They have a new thing that did lose them the game.

Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the San Francisco 49ers 2024 season is that all five of their losses seem to come down to something different.

There’s not one discernible thing they have to fix, but rather a smattering of issues that vary each week in how much damage they inflict on the club’s chances to get a victory.

In a damaging Week 11 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, it appeared the offense was a major problem. That unit turned the ball over once and averaged only 4.9 yards per play in their least efficient outing of the year. They were also unable to hold onto the football for 3:56 at the end of the game, giving Seattle a chance to win.

Despite the offensive struggles, head coach Kyle Shanahan wasn’t necessarily displeased with the play from that unit in their latest loss. Instead, he pointed to penalties as the reason for their season-low output.

“Yeah, that was a huge thing. I thought that was one of the biggest problems for the offense on the day,” Shanahan said of the penalties. “And I actually thought we played a better game offensively than we did on that Thursday night game. We didn’t get, you know, on that Thursday night game we got the busted coverage on [WR] Deebo’s [Samuel] 70-yarder and we got those two explosive runs which really helped. But we played better football this game. We just didn’t at all with the penalties and you know, we had one 14-play drive where, I don’t know how many 14-play drives that I’ve been a part of that don’t end with points or a missed field goal or turnover. To go 14 plays and then punt it, we had eight plays inside the 50 after that turnover for the field goal having to overcome it a couple times and get them again. So, that was our biggest problem on the day I felt offensively.”

The 49ers had one drive just before the first half where they had a second-and-3 turn into a second-and-8 because of a false start. Two plays later on a third-and-1 they had a five-yard carry called back because of a hold, putting San Francisco into a third-and-10.

They overcame those penalties to get a first-and-10 at Seattle’s 34 after the two-minute warning. Another false start pushed them to a first-and-15, and then quarterback Brock Purdy took a sack that knocked them out of field goal range. Two incompletions later they punted. Instead of going ahead 10-6 or 14-6 before halftime, the 49ers led 7-6.

In the second half the 49ers defense came up with an interception that set the offense up at Seattle’s 27. They eventually got to first-and-10 at the Seahawks 16. An eight-yard scramble by Brock Purdy on that down was called back for a hold, giving the 49ers a first-and-20 at Seattle’s 26. Running back Christian McCaffrey immediately got the 49ers back inside the 15 with a 14-yard run, but that was negated by an illegal formation flag.

San Francisco went from first-and-10 at the Seattle 16 to first-and-25 at the Seattle 31. They settled for a field goal on that series and instead of leading 14-6, led 10-6 and allowed the next Seattle touchdown to give them a lead.

The good news is it wasn’t special teams that killed the 49ers this time. The bad news is we have a new thing to add to the list of reasons a team that was supposed to contend for a Super Bowl is fighting for its playoff life after 10 games.

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49ers schedule: Week 11 game vs. Seahawks a virtual must-win

The 49ers need to beat the Seahawks for a bunch of reasons.

There’s a clear path to the postseason for the San Francisco 49ers that started in Week 10 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and continues in Week 11 against the Seattle Seahawks.

The game at Tampa Bay was a virtual must-win for the previously 4-4 49ers. A loss to fall to 4-5 could have been catastrophic. Alas, they pulled out a 23-20 victory on the road. While it was a significant win, it was only Step 1 for the 49ers. Perhaps more important is Sunday’s matchup against the Seattle Seahawks.

It doesn’t appear as though the 49ers’ road back to the playoffs will ever be easy this season. They could simply win the rest of their games and punch their ticket that way, but with games coming up in Green Bay, in Buffalo, at home against the Lions, Dolphins and Rams, and in Arizona, the likelihood they win out is slim. That puts a handful of other scenarios on the table.

There are too many different ways this can all play out to start listing them here, but there’s a real chance tiebreakers come into play for either the division or a wild card spot. The bottom line for Sunday’s game is that the 49ers can’t drop another game in the division after losing to the Cardinals and Rams earlier in the year.

NFL tiebreakers for the division start with head-to-head record. The 49ers would sweep the season series with the Seahawks with a win Sunday and climb further ahead of them in the standings. If the teams split their head-to-head matchups, which the 49ers would if they beat the Rams and Cardinals, then the next tiebreaker is record within the division.

San Francisco needs a trio of wins in the division down the stretch, and their second time through the NFC West begins Sunday.

There’s a wild card element to factor in as well.

The first tiebreaker for wild card teams is head-to-head matchup. We’ll cross that bridge when we get to it next week when the 49ers visit the No. 7 seed Green Bay Packers. The next tiebreaker is conference record, and San Francisco’s three NFC losses early in the year put them behind the curve in that category.

Racking up NFC wins is going to be imperative to not only have a playoff-caliber record, but also for getting a potential tiebreaker edge.

San Francisco could still make the postseason if they lose Sunday. A win makes the path much easier though, and finding out what it looks like with a loss to Seattle is probably a version of the playoff picture they’ll want to avoid.

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Next 4 weeks of schedule will define 49ers 2024 season

The direction of the 49ers’ season will be determined by this four-week turning point.

The San Francisco 49ers’ 2024 season sits at a crossroads as they come out of their Bye week.

They hold a 4-4 record and sit on the outside looking in at the NFC playoff picture. They’re also a half game back of the Arizona Cardinals for the NFC West lead, and sitting in third place in the division because the Los Angeles Rams hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over them.

By most measures that ultimately matter, the 49ers have been a pretty middle-of-the-road club through eight games. That’s reflected in the USA TODAY NFL power rankings where they sit at No. 16 after their Bye week.

The next four weeks will define their entire year and give them an opportunity to tip toward the side that features Super Bowl contention.

San Francisco will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road in Week 10, then come home to host the Seattle Seahawks in Week 11. After that they’ll have back-to-back road contests at Green Bay and Buffalo.

Going 3-1 or 4-0 in this stretch will entrench the 49ers as a Super Bowl contender. That’d put them at either 7-5 or 8-4 with four quality wins in a row. It would also signal that the typical second-half push by San Francisco is in play.

If they split those four games or worse, they’re going to have a hard time making the postseason at all.

It’s an 18-week season, but if the 49ers are going to show they’re better than a middle-of-the-road team, it has to start with their first four games out of the Bye.

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49ers schedule: Week 10 opponent won’t be a pushover

Get to know the basics about the 49ers’ Week 10 opponent:

The San Francisco 49ers open their final nine games of the regular season with a road trip to visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

For the 49ers, this Week 10 bout will determine the tenor of the rest of their season. A win keeps them in a tie for the top of the division. A loss puts them on the outside looking in at the NFC West, and at a wild card spot where the No. 7 seed belongs to the 6-3 Green Bay Packers.

Week 10 won’t just be a big one for the 49ers. Their opponent will also be entering with their playoff hopes hanging in the balance.

Here’s a quick rundown of what’s going on with the Buccaneers in 2024:

What did the Buccaneers do last game?

Tampa Bay visited the Kansas City Chiefs and fell 30-24 in overtime. Quarterback Baker Mayfield was impressive against one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses. He threw for 200 yards and two touchdowns, but he was outdueled by Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes’s 291 yards and three touchdowns.

What’s the Buccaneers’ record?

The Bucs are now 4-5 after their loss to the Chiefs. They’re comfortably No. 2 in the NFC South ahead of the 2-7 Carolina Panthers and 2-7 New Orleans Saints. They’re now 2.0 games behind the division-leading Atlanta Falcons. In the NFC playoff race, the Bucs are 0.5 games behind the 49ers at No. 11 overall.

What’s the Buccaneers injury situation?

One of Tampa Bay’s issues during their three-game losing skid is their injuries at wide receiver. Chris Godwin is out for the year with an ankle injury, and Mike Evans is out for several weeks with a hamstring injury. Defensive lineman Greg Gaines was also out of Monday’s game with a calf injury.

Where do the Buccaneers rank in offense?

Even with the injuries the Bucs’ offense has been outstanding under the guidance of offensive coordinator Liam Coen. They rank No. 5 in total yards, No. 5 in yards per play and No. 3 in points per game. They posted 24 points vs. Kansas City — the second-highest output against them all season.

Where do the Buccaneers rank in defense?

It’s less pretty defensively for head coach Todd Bowles’s club. They’re No. 30 in the NFL in yards allowed per game and No. 30 in yards allowed per play. Their run defense is allowing 5.19 yards per play, which is tied with the New York Giants for the worst mark in the league. That makes it no surprise that the Buccaneers rank 28th in points allowed.

What happened last time the 49ers and Buccaneers played?

The 49ers are 20-6 all-time in the regular season vs. Tampa Bay, including wins in each of their last three matchups. Last time they played was in 2023 with the 49ers handling business at Levi’s Stadium and securing a 27-14 win. San Francisco also hosted the Buccaneers in 2022 and blew them out 35-7 in Brock Purdy’s first start at quarterback.

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49ers scores: How Kyle Shanahan teams do immediately after Bye week

Here’s how the 49ers do under Kyle Shanahan the week after their Bye:

The San Francisco 49ers will need to hit the ground running coming out of their Bye week.

A Week 8 win over the Dallas Cowboys put the 49ers in a spot to be competitive in the NFC West and playoff races the rest of the way, but they’ll need to get off on the right foot out of the gate when the visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Recently the first game out of the Bye week has been a bright spot on the 49ers’ schedule.

Under head coach Kyle Shanahan they’re 4-3 after the week off, but they’re 4-1 in their last five. The 2017 and 2018 seasons were outliers where they lost 24-13 at home to the Seattle Seahawks and 27-9 on the road vs. the Buccaneers.

Since then they’ve been pretty good out of the Bye.

In 2019 they blew out the Cleveland Browns 31-3 at Levi’s Stadium. The following year was a disaster, but they still squeaked out a 23-20 road win over the Los Angeles Rams after the Bye.

Quarterback injuries and inclement weather helped catalyze an ugly 30-18 loss at home against the Indianapolis Colts after the 2021 Bye week.

In 2022 they snuck past the Los Angeles Chargers 22-16 early in Christian McCaffrey’s tenure. Then last year they blew out the Jacksonville Jaguars 34-3 in Northeast Florida.

While the 49ers haven’t necessarily been dominant immediately after the Bye week, a 4-1 record in their last five provides optimism they’ll be able to find a win over a shorthanded Buccaneers club coming off a tough, overtime Monday Night Football game on the road vs. the Kansas City Chiefs.

Given Shanahan’s overall record after Bye weeks, getting started with a win would put the 49ers on a very good track to stay prominently in the NFC playoff picture.

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49ers schedule: Are the San Francisco 49ers playing today?

Are the San Francisco 49ers playing today? Here’s a look at the schedule and the games to come. 

Will the San Francisco 49ers be on the field today in Week 9 of the NFL schedule?

Following a 30-24 win over the Dallas Cowboys, the 49ers are on a bye week and will return to the field on November 10 for a showdown with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers will be coming off a short week after visiting the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football in Week 8, and they’re banged up with their two top wide receivers – Chris Godwin and Mike Evans – both dealing with injuries. Godwin is out for the year, and Evans isn’t expected back for several weeks.

Tampa Bay still brings a good defense into the matchup though, and their run game has enough juice to create some issues for the 49ers’ defense. Still, it’s a game that looks imminently winnable considering the 49ers’ rest advantage, the potential return of running back Christian McCaffrey, and the Buccaneers injury issues.

49ers 2024 schedule

  • Week 1: vs. New York Jets (W, 32-19)
  • Week 2: vs. Minnesota (L, 23-17)
  • Week 3: at Los Angeles Rams (L, 27-24)
  • Week 4: vs. New England (W, 30-13)
  • Week 5: vs. Arizona (L, 24-23)
  • Week 6: at Seattle (W, 36-24)
  • Week 7 vs. Kansas City (L, 28-18)
  • Week 8 vs. Dallas (W, 30-24)
  • Week 9: Bye
  • Week 10: at Tampa Bay (4-4)
  • Week 11: vs. Seattle (4-4)
  • Week 12: at Green Bay (6-2)
  • Week 13: at Buffalo (6-2)
  • Week 14: vs. Chicago (4-3)
  • Week 15: vs. Los Angeles Rams (3-4)
  • Week 16: at Miami (2-5)
  • Week 17: vs. Detroit (6-1)
  • Week 18: at Arizona (4-4)
  • Record: 4-4

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49ers schedule: Calendar change is the good news for San Francisco

The 49ers have won 10 November games in a row.

No team in the league is happier to see October end than the San Francisco 49ers.

October has been by far their least successful month under head coach Kyle Shanahan. Since he took over in 2017, the 49ers are 15-21 in the month. It’s the only month they have a losing record in that stretch. They’re still sub-.500 in October even if we remove 2017 and 2018 where they were a combined 0-9.

The calendar is officially turned to November though where the 49ers tend to turn things around.

In November they’re 14-9 under Shanahan, including 10 consecutive victories dating back to Week 10 of the 2021 season.

Oddly enough, they started 3-5 in that 2021 campaign before rallying back to make a run to the NFC championship game. This season they’re 4-4, but they’re in need of a similar run if they want to win the NFC West and put themselves in position to make the NFC championship game.

While their play in October wasn’t great, there were signs of progress as the month ended. In their final three games, they converted 66.7 percent of their red zone trips into touchdowns after being near 40 percent for the season before that. Their win over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 8 also saw the 49ers get back to some of the fundamental strengths of their offense with short throws and yards-after-catch.

If those trends are a sign of things to come, we should see another strong November showing for the 49ers. History says this is the time Shanahan teams start playing their best football. San Francisco needs another year of that in 2024, because another rough October means they don’t have the margin for error to overcome a lackluster November.

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Has negative rest differential hurt 49ers this season?

How much has rest differential hurt the 49ers so far in 2024?

The San Francisco 49ers for the last two seasons have been up against the dreaded ‘rest differential‘ thanks to their schedule.

A key talking point when the NFL releases its full schedule is the number of days a team has off between games compared to its opponent. If Teams A and B face off after having played the previous Sunday, the rest differential is zero for both teams. If Team A played Monday night, and Team B played Sunday, Team B would have a plus-one rest differential when facing Team A the following Sunday.

The 49ers have been on the wrong side of the rest differential by historical proportions in each of their last two schedules. In 2023 they had the sixth-worst rest differential of all-time. This year they have the third-worst.

In 2023 it didn’t matter in the grand scheme of the season as the 49ers finished 12-5 and snagged the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

So far in 2024 it hasn’t mattered much either.

San Francisco through six weeks has yet to play a game with a positive rest differential, and there’s no clear evidence that being at a rest disadvantage has actually hurt the 49ers.

They had neutral rest differentials in Week 1, Week 3, Week 5 and Week 6.

In Week 1 they beat the Jets. They lost in Weeks 3 and 5 to the Rams and Cardinals, respectively. Then they beat the Seahawks on Thursday Night Football in Week 6.

In Week 2, thanks to a Week 1 Monday Night Football game, the 49ers were a minus-1 rest differential in a loss to the Minnesota Vikings.

On the other hand, the Patriots had a plus-three rest differential in Week 4 when they visited Levi’s Stadium, and San Francisco handled them with relative ease.

Now it’s up to the 49ers to continue shrugging off rest disadvantages because they’re going to have two big ones entering their next two games.

The Chiefs, who were on a bye in Week 6, will have a plus-three rest differential at Levi’s Stadium in Week 7.

Then the 49ers host the Cowboys in Week 8 after Dallas has its bye in Week 7. That means they’ll have a plus-seven differential when they visit San Francisco.

While the rest advantage is a preseason talking point, the 49ers don’t have the margin for error to use it as an excuse. They overcame a season full of tough schedule spots last year, and they did it once already this year. That trend needs to continue heading into their Week 9 bye if they want to put themselves in position to potentially push for the No. 1 seed again.

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49ers Super Bowl hopes may ride on Week 6 vs. Seahawks

The 49ers season isn’t over if they lose, but it’s awful close.

Multiple members of the San Francisco 49ers have acknowledged the stakes of their Thursday night showdown with the Seattle Seahawks.

Cornerback Deommodore Lenoir said the team is treating it like a must-win game. Defensive end Nick Bosa echoed those sentiments. Linebacker Fred Warner didn’t mince words when he talked about what’s on the line for the 49ers on Thursday at Lumen Field.

It sounds melodramatic given that the club is only entering Week 6, and that a large swath of the roster’s key players were on the roster just three seasons ago when they got off to a 3-5 start.

This year is different, though, and the uptick urgency is being reflected by players in media settings.

It is true that a loss Thursday, which drops the 49ers to 2-4 overall, 0-3 in the NFC West and 0-4 in the NFC, wouldn’t end their season. They could mathematically win 11 straight games to go 13-4.

That’s an unrealistic expectation, which brings the ‘must-win’ phrasing into the picture.

San Francisco has Super Bowl aspirations. In the era of the 14-team playoff where only the No. 1 seed gets a bye week, that No. 1 seed is crucial. The advanced age of the 49ers’ roster and the spate of extra games they’ve played over the last five years because of four deep playoff runs makes the bye week an even greater necessity.

Their margin for error on potentially securing a No. 1 seed was ostensibly lit on fire when the team blew 10-point fourth-quarter leads against the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals. They need to start racking up wins, and it has to start Thursday in Seattle, especially with dates against the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys looming.

If the 49ers win Thursday, things will feel more stable for them heading into their final two games before their bye.

If the 49ers lose Thursday, the one seed, and with it a potential Super Bowl run, may fall entirely out of reach.

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