Tag: 2023

Packers Wire staff predictions: Week 1 vs. Bears

Here’s how the staff at Packers Wire believes the Week 1 showdown against the Bears will go down.

The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears will open the 2023 season with a rivalry renewal at Soldier Field on Sunday afternoon. The winner will start 1-0, have a big division win banked entering Week 2 and feel great about their chances in the post-Aaron Rodgers era.

Can Jordan Love begin his starting career with a win in Chicago, or will Justin Fields and the Bears snap an eight-game losing streak to the Packers?

Here’s how the staff at Packers Wire believes the Week 1 showdown against the Bears will go down:

England’s No. 1 prospect shares top 5, commitment date

England’s No. 1 player Daniel Akinkunmi shared his top five a little more than a month before he announces his commitment.

The Oklahoma Sooners are in a fight for the nation’s No. 1 prospect. The nation of England, that is.

Offensive lineman [autotag]Daniel Akinkunmi[/autotag] is one of the most intriguing prospects in the [autotag]2024 recruiting class[/autotag]. He is raw but very athletic for his size.

Akinkunmi is listed at 6 feet, 5 inches and 300 pounds. He recently ran an impressive 4.95 40-yard dash. The athletic offensive line prospect is a part of the NFL Academy in England.

Akinkunmi is coming off a visit to Oklahoma, his first visit to campus for a game. All reports said he had a great time, and Oklahoma remains the favorite.

 

But Oklahoma is going to be in for a dogfight; Akinkunmi listed his top five and all of the schools are going to be hard to beat. The five were the Clemson Tigers, Ole Miss Rebels, Miami Hurricanes, Baylor Bears and, of course, Oklahoma.

Akinkunmi also set his commitment date for Oct. 12, 2023, so the Sooners will not have to wait long for an answer. More good news is Akinkunmi announced he would not be take any more visits and instead focus on his team’s season.

The Sooners will have a tough battle for Akinkunmi. The Bears have been hanging around for a while, and you can never count out the Clemson Tigers. But for someone who said he wants to go down as the best offensive lineman ever, it would be hard to pass up playing for [autotag]Bill Bedenbaugh[/autotag].

Contact/Follow us @SoonersWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oklahoma news, notes, and opinions. You can also follow Jaron on Twitter @JaronSpor.

5 keys to a Chargers win vs. Dolphins in Week 1

Here is how the Chargers can tip the scales in their favor against the Dolphins in Week 1.

The Chargers are just two days out from their home opener against the Dolphins. While the lineups and teams are different from the late-season 2022 matchup, Brandon Staley’s squad will look to recreate some of the same success they had last year.

Here are some ways the Bolts can tip the scales in their favor against Miami.

Disrupting Tua Tagovailoa’s rhythm and timing

Staley praised Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa during his Wednesday media availability:

 He is really, really accurate with the football. He makes quick decisions. I think the big reason why their passing game is so prolific is the timing that he plays with. He throws a really catchable football, which allows those skill players to run with it.

When Tagovailoa is allowed to go through his progressions and find a mismatch he likes from a coverage mistake, he’s top-tier. But the former Alabama product tends to struggle when situations are suboptimal. In terms of EPA/play, he struggled in situations where defenses played “perfect coverage” on plays last season.

Staley’s game plan last year confounded Tagovailoa by forcing him off of his timing with pressure up front and good coverage downfield. Essentially, the game plan should make him play like his more improvisational contemporaries at the position. Two-high shell, pressure from the edge defenders and the multitude of looks the Chargers can throw at Tagovailoa is how they win the day on defense.

Consistent pressure off of the edge

Left tackle Terron Armstead is out for Miami with injuries to his back, ankle, and knee. Journeyman tackle Kendall Lamm will likely play in his place this week. Austin Jackson is on the other side at right tackle. I’m unsure if the Chargers will get a more favorable pass-rush matchup all season. This is as healthy and fresh as Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa will be throughout the season.

The Dolphins’ game plan will be getting the ball out as quickly as possible when they can. That was true before the Armstead announcement and is probably even more accentuated now. Still, collapsing the pocket and making Tagovailoa uncomfortable is the Chargers’ number one priority on defense with Mack and Bosa.

Quality run defense in two-man high

Kellen Moore said it himself in reference to the Chargers’ own running game last week: “If you can’t run it versus shell, you’re going to get shell all day.” The lack of a consistent Dolphins’ rushing attack made the Bolts’ two-high safety scheme much more effective last year. Raheem Mostert finished the game with just 11 carries for 37 yards.

Staley’s defense will stay back until they’re given a reason not to. One thing to watch for on the ground: Miami was one of the most efficient rushing attacks in the league when running outside of the tackles. The Chargers were one of the worst rush defenses against outside zone.

Early big throws from Justin Herbert

To some extent, this game will be a feeling-out process for both Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio’s respective units. The more likely game script for Moore’s offense could be running to start the pass. But based on the matchup, I’d suggest that maybe the opposite thought process is the way to go.

Miami’s front seven is dynamic from both run defense and pass rush standpoints. They specifically allowed the fourth fewest rushing yards per game in the league last year.

Considering Austin Ekeler’s usage as a pass catcher in the open field as well, it may be better to come out firing in the passing game. Get Miami on their heels in the secondary first before attempting to establish Ekeler and company.

Mike Williams should be able to get mismatches

Jalen Ramsey being out for Miami is a huge advantage for the Chargers that isn’t being talked about enough. All-Pro cornerback Xavien Howard will likely find himself locked up with Keenan Allen for large portions of the game. Kader Kohou will take the matchup when Allen comes into the slot.

But what’s the plan for Williams on the outside? Right now, the best options are looking like rookie second-round selection Cam Smith or Eli Apple. Williams has a pretty significant size advantage over both and he tends to start hot towards the beginning of the season.

This has all the makings of an early-season dominant Williams game if he’s able to exacerbate the mismatches in Ramsey’s absence.

Reintroducing a rival: Jordan Love-led Packers face new-look Bears in Week 1

The Packers will face a new-look Bears team on Sunday in the season opener. Bears Wire helps highlight what’s new about Green Bay’s biggest rival before kickoff.

After years of Wisconsin-based dominance led by quarterbacks Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, the iconic and historic rivalry between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears will enter a new chapter in 2023.

And the first paragraph of the new chapter arrives Sunday when the Packers take on the Bears at Soldier Field in the regular season opener.

Will another quarterback author the next chapter? More specifically, is the Packers-Bears rivalry about to enter a period defined by Jordan Love or Justin Fields?

The quarterback position isn’t the only fresh start in the league’s oldest matchup. Outside of Love, the Packers are entering a new phase on offense, and especially in the the passing game, which currently features nine first- or second-year receivers and tight ends on the 53-man roster. In Chicago, the Bears added dynamic receiver D.J. Moore and reahuled the league’s worst defense from a year ago with several free-agent additions.

Before Sunday’s season opener, Packers Wire sat down with Bears Wire managing editor Alyssa Barbieri to “reintroduce a rival” and help highlight what’s new with the Bears entering 2023.

5 keys to Packers beating Bears in 2023 season opener

The five big keys to the Packers beating the Bears in Week 1 of the 2023 season.

The Green Bay Packers will open the 2023 regular season with a trip to Chicago and a chance to renew the rivalry with the Bears on Sunday at Soldier Field. Interestingly enough, the start of the Jordan Love era in Green Bay comes against a team Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre long terrorized.

Matt LaFleur is 8-0 against the Bears since becoming the Packers coach. Extending the winning streak to nine will require LaFleur’s team to go into hostile territory and beat a team that added receiver DJ Moore and several veteran free agents on defense. As of Friday, the Packers are slight road underdogs.

Here are five keys to the Packers beating the Bears in the season opener

Brandon Staley gives more details on the Chargers’ cornerback plans

Brandon Staley talked extensively about some of the Chargers’ plans in the secondary.

At his media availability, Brandon Staley talked extensively about some of the Chargers’ plans in the secondary. First on the docket was the status of J.C. Jackson. He was left off the teams’ Wednesday injury report and is officially on track to play Sunday. Jackson said he’s not putting “any limit” on his knee when speaking in the locker room. Staley wasn’t quite as adamant when asked if there would be limitations on Jackson’s performance.

It’s to be determined. He has practiced well. We’ll see how it goes in the game.

On what he needs to see from Jackson, Staley said this:

Just seeing him through a game. We’ve seen him in practice, now we get to see him in a game. We’re excited. He has practiced well. We’ll see how it goes.

I’m not sure Jackson will be on a snap count per se, but the Chargers will likely approach the situation conservatively. Jackson never quite got his feet under him last season after he returned from ankle surgery in Week 2 against the Chiefs. The last thing Staley or the team would want to do is overwork Jackson as he continues his rehab process. Jackson did take occasional practices off during camp to manage his knee recovery.

Staley’s cautious optimism ties directly into his vision for cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. on Sunday. On his projected slot role, Staley said:

It’s fair to say that Asante will be there sometimes, but we’re going to play a lot of guys there. You’re going to see Asante outside, too. He had a really, really good training camp. I’m excited to see him play.

If the Chargers want to load manage Jackson’s snaps here and there, shifting Samuel outside is the easiest way to go about it. If he’s needed outside occasionally, Ja’Sir Taylor and Derwin James can also play the STAR role in the slot. It also fits into Staley’s training camp vision for Samuel. The goal was to cross-train him inside and out, but the team wants to maintain its versatility. While he will play a healthy amount at slot corner, Samuel will not be pigeonholed into that role alone.

Staley followed up his thoughts with some praise for Samuel:

Since he has been here, one of Asante’s top qualities is his toughness. He is physically tough, mentally tough. He is a competitor. He has improved each year as a player here, in all always. He has had an outstanding training camp. I think he’s been able to showcase, inside, that he has top Star ability in there. We’re expecting a big year from him.

When asked whether Derwin James factors into a STAR rotation by The Athletic’s Daniel Popper, Staley didn’t deny that he could be in that mix with Samuel and Taylor on occasion.

How Staley’s defense weaves together its secondary pieces in Week 1 against Miami will be pivotal. Michael Davis will likely get a rematch in most 1 on 1 situations vs. Tyreek Hill, but the rest of the secondary design is a little less clear. How much will James be used as the Swiss Army knife? How many snaps will the coaching staff let Jackson play? And finally, how often will Samuel diversify between the slot and the outside? Staley indicates that everything is on the table and “to be determined” for Sunday.

DVOA projects Packers to make playoffs in 2023

The Packers might be average in most areas in 2023, but that might be enough to make the playoffs in the NFC. Here’s the DVOA projection.

Projections made by Aaron Schatz’s DVOA metric have the Green Bay Packers making the playoffs as the final wildcard team in the NFC during the 2023 season.

The DVOA forecast uses a number of projection variables, including three-year DVOA trends and a prediction for each starting quarterback. Personnel changes are also factored into the projection. The Packers lost several veteran players and future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers from last year’s 8-9 team.

While the Packers ranked only 19th in DVOA’s projection, the model gave the Packers an average of 9.2 wins and a 59 percent chance of making the playoffs, in large part due to Green Bay’s weak schedule (ranked 29th) and the lack of quality teams in the NFC. Matt LaFleur’s team is viewed as the definition of average, with the No. 17 offense, No. 16 defense and No. 16 special teams projected by DVOA in 2023.

As is the case with Schatz’s projection model, so much of the Packers’ potential as a team rests on the shoulders of Jordan Love and where he ranks in the pantheon of starting quarterbacks. If he’s an average or better starter, the Packers have enough talent at running back, along the offensive line and on defense to surprise as an NFC playoff team.

In the DVOA projection, the Detroit Lions are the 12th best team and win the NFC North. The Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears ranked 26th and 30th, respectively. In a wide open division and a conference lacking depth, the Packers should have a legitimate shot at the postseason in 2023.

Ryan Ficken breaks down Chargers’ special teams entering Week 1

Special teams coordinator Ryan Ficken talked about the state of his Chargers unit.

Special teams coordinator Ryan Ficken broke down the state of the Chargers’ special teams at his Monday media availability.

First, Ficken was asked about the summer kicking competition between Cameron Dicker and Dustin Hopkins.

Dustin, first and foremost, is an elite kicker. Either way, however it shook out, we were going to lose a top kicker. We felt, as an organization, that the body of work with what Cameron has done — nothing that Hopkins hasn’t done — more of what Dicker has done, our faith and belief in him and his consistency with it. Moving forward, we thought he was the right guy for the opportunity.

Hopkins was traded to the Browns for a 2025 seventh-round draft pick prior to final roster cuts. While the coaching staff has consistently said that the two kickers were in “competition” for most of training camp, it never truly felt that way. Dicker hit about 90% of his field goal attempts throughout the summer while Hopkins had nagging injuries that caused him to sit for various periods of time. As somewhat evidenced by the Browns trade, Hopkins playing in the preseason was merely an audition for kicker-needy teams.

When asked about Dicker’s range on field goals this year, Ficken seemed very confident.

That’s something that depends on the situation. It depends on the game, the environment, the wind, indoor or outdoor and all of that. We’re very confident in his leg strength and where he can kick from, the distance. Especially with how many reps you’re going to get, those opportunities from the greater distances. I don’t think distance really plays a factor with him. He’s steady Eddie as it is.

Dicker went 21 for 22 on field goal attempts last season. From 40-49 yards, he went 6 for 6 on the year. However, range is an interesting discussion. Last year, the former Texas product missed his only attempt from 50+ yards against the Raiders. There’s not much of a sample size to go off of and one has to wonder how many 50+ yarders Dicker would actually attempt with Staley’s 4th down philosophy.

Ficken also noted the work that will have to be done to replace fullback Zander Horvath. The 2022 seventh-round pick officially signed with Pittsburgh’s practice squad yesterday.

It’s a tough replacement. I don’t think that you, necessarily, replace a Zander Horvath. It’s unfortunate — with the way that the roster is made up — to lose a really good player, in terms of special teams, as Zander. I’m very thankful for what he brought to this organization last year and how we were able to get a foundation built with him as a rookie. He’s going to do great things wherever he is at, so I’m very happy for him to have a situation. We wanted him back here, just a different situation. It just kind of works out that way. He’s going to be successful wherever he goes.

Ficken also noted that replacing Horvath will likely be done with a group of players by committee. Kickoff team and punt team coverages are the two responsibilities that the Chargers’ special teams coordinator will now be trying to fill.

On whether he’d name Derius Davis the starting returner, Ficken was a bit tepid in his response.

We have a pretty good idea of who is going to be the returner. Obviously, Derius did some good things in the preseason games. At the end of the day, we still have to make sure that we’re repping and we’re preparing the other guys, too, on this team that can handle the job because you never know what could happen, anything can happen. We’re going full throttle with the three returners that we have on this roster, to prepare them to be ready to go on Sunday, if their number gets called.

Ficken also noted that he views kick returner and punt returner as two separate positions in his philosophy. He said that he’s seen different special teams circumstances dictate the philosophy. On his previous teams, Ficken said that he’s seen one returner handle both roles and some setups where two different returners handle each job separately.

In his final remarks of the presser, Ficken stressed the importance of newly signed LB Tanner Muse on the 53-man roster.

“Yes. We expect him to be out there. That’s a big reason why we ended up bringing him here. We’re excited to have a guy such as Tanner, the way that he plays special teams, with his length and his speed and his strength. He does a great job. We expect him to be out there and be a major contributor for us.”

It’s worth noting that Muse could end up playing a lot of special teams with his experience there. Staley and Ficken have liked their “core four” special teams players to have significant roles on the roster. Daiyan Henley was dealing with a hamstring injury last week, so it’ll also be important to see if there’s any progress on his recovery when the injury reports are released. If Henley can’t go, Muse could play an even larger role than expected.

Derwin James on Chargers’ run defense: ‘We know the elephant in the room that we have to fix’

Derwin James talked extensively about the Chargers’ run defense and how it can improve.

Derwin James talked extensively about the Chargers’ run defense and how it can improve. It’s something that Brandon Staley and the defensive coaching staff have stressed this offseason.

Just everybody understanding what they’re doing and going out, playing hard. Like I said, we know the elephant in the room that we know we have to fix. We’re going to get that fixed.

During training camp, Joey Bosa mentioned that he gained about 20 pounds in the offseason to make stopping the run a bigger priority. James, Bosa, and Khalil Mack will be integral to that effort. The defensive line will be critical as well. But for James, the implementation of the run scheme extends past the first level of the defense.

I feel like, overall, when you look at run defense, people be like, ‘Oh, it’s just the D-Line.’ I just feel like our corners understand more, whether it’s Zont [Asante Samuel Jr.], Mike [Michael Davis] or J.C.— even me. I’ve gotten better with some of my fits. Everybody understands the collective that it’s going to take everybody out there playing the run defense right.

It is a usual reaction by fans to point to the defensive line when the Chargers’ defense is getting gashed, but what James said is important. It’s about all three levels of their run defense working together to stop the run. There were missed tackles in the secondary last year that turned four or five-yard runs into much bigger plays. If the secondary understands the run fits better now, that’s a significant improvement for LA’s defense.

Like what Staley said at points this offseason, James also mentioned preventing lamented “explosive runs.”

I feel like, in spurts, we’ve stopped the run well, but I feel like when you give up those two to three explosive runs, whether it’s 20 yards, 30 or 40 yards, it really hurts your average. It really hurts how the day is going. Being able to stop them every play, win those downs and get those negative plays, I feel like that’s what’s going to help our overall run defense.

As James indicated, allowing those explosive runs certainly hurt their average. The Chargers gave up a league-high 5.4 yards per carry as a rush defense last season.

The Bolts were a particularly bad third-down defense last year regarding getting off the field. It’s not coincidental that their best overall defensive performances from last season were games like San Francisco and Miami, where explosive runs were limited at a high level.

OC Kellen Moore stresses Chargers’ efforts to balance the run and pass

Kellen Moore put a strong emphasis on the Chargers having a versatile offensive identity.

Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore strongly emphasized the Chargers having a versatile offensive identity. When asked about balancing the run and pass, Moore elaborated:

With Justin [Herbert], you feel really good about throwing it. There are games we may need to throw it 60 times. There may be games where we need to run it 60 times. However, we need to fit in-between that each week, it will take its own path and we’ll be comfortable with that.

Moore’s comments continue to follow a theme of Los Angeles’ offseason. A few months ago, Staley brought up “marrying” the pass and run. In essence, it was meant to establish the creation of an identity for the Bolts to be able to run a smoother offense than last season.

On running the ball to open up the passing game, Moore said:

There’s potential there. Any time people play two-deep safeties — in a very cookie-cutter viewpoint here — you have to be able to run the ball to some degree there. The box is a little bit more in your favor, so you have to be able to find ways to have successful runs in there to give yourself, eventually, the one-on-one opportunities. If you can’t run it versus shell, you’re going to get shell all day. Now, the vertical aspect of it becomes a little bit more challenging when you have two deep safeties.

Head coach Brandon Staley employs some of the very same tactics mentioned by Moore on the opposite side of the ball. As demonstrated in a few games last year, the two-high look worked for Staley’s defense if other teams had trouble running the ball.

Take the game against the Dolphins from last season as an example. Unfortunately for the Chargers offense in 2022, they had some of the same struggles in getting their own run game going against shell looks.

Moore also commented on what the “tempo” of the offense should look like:

“There are a million factors on your side with the way the game is flowing and then with who you’re playing. There will be games where maybe it’s an advantage. There will be games where maybe it’s not an advantage. It’s just one part of the offense. You can play with a lot of different personnel. You can play with a lot of different types of tempo. You just want to have exposure to all of this stuff through training camp so that during the season when we feel it’s necessary or valuable for a game plan, we can pull back on that experience and go.”

Hopefully, the Chargers feel as though they’ve gotten the proper reps in both the huddle and no-huddle offensive looks in training camp.